Sunday, April 11, 2010

When Is Enough Enough? E-minis SPX 500 Futures

You tell me when enough is enough. The latest unfathomable feat of the march to infinity and beyond happened on Friday after the bell I guess speculation (with some inside information) on the Greek bailout announcement. Of course the minis shot up a few extra points, but what they gapped thru is the insanity of it. For months I have been bringing you the minis and the wedge. The upper trendline has been the one constant the market has respected, until tonight. In the words of Moses, "Behold his power and respect his rules." (No caps cause I was referring to Helicopter Ben in the place of I Am).

Daily from the low - 

60m Drill down -

Even closer - note the gap thru the TL. That is one way of knowing you have a really solid TL in the right spot. So now futures price is above the bull run's top TL and in the green wedge heading further into the stratosphere. The reversal of all this will be horrendous.
I believe the 60m futures will still be overbought in the morning (see the TLs under the indicators above). The divergence on the daily RSI and overbought condition can not be ignored much longer. After the gap up in SPX to get it's 1200 glory, I am anticipating a fall of some degree. Let the 30m minis cycle to the top and that should be the proper time to enter shorts (they have a nasty way of setting up the 30m indicators to bottom in the am so be careful shorting till they top). The 30m SPX rupture (see my last post below) on Friday was possibly the single most abomination of the charts I have seen thus far on the run up.

One last chart - YEARLY SPX - 1209 looks to be a really important number on this chart.You need to note that the MACD is still in bear mode and although RSI is bouncing off the 50 line now I would not pay that any attention. The yearly RSI will have to hit the 25 line or worse before this ends. That is one super bearish candle in 2008. I expect the candle for this year to be red as well. Yes, that is a trendline and the lower BB near 300. The 50 ma is at 479. More in the am. GL!