Friday, April 23, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Minis up 4.5 after Greece formally begins begging for money and MSFT and AMZN disappoint. Gee, I thought futures would be up much more on such good news. I remember the day when an MSFT AMZN disappoint combo would have sent flairs in the air and had futures down 10. My how things have changed.

Earnings Calendar - Still busy with a few more big names to come next week. Nothing surprising before the bell Monday.

Economic Calendar - Durable goods did not budge the minis. New Home sales at 10:00.

Pivot Points -

Minis backtesting the breakdown thru the support line from the February lows and testing the upper resistance line of the large bull market corrective with overbought daily indicators. The 30m may be ready to roll over at this time or before lunch. Look for a retrace to the VWAP near 97. The lowest possible move would be to 86 with what I see as a ceiling near 1210 (at least till the standard ramp job on Monday).

SPX 60m - The dailys have created some room below the upper BB (1219) to run if they want. The problem is with the magnatisim of the upper bull market's resistance line which resides at 1207 right now and the backtest of the February support line which is at 1212 now and (yes one more) the backtest of the March support line which is at 1213 now. That leads to the big question of what happens with this triangle? Well, these act more like springboards to higher highs and since the market cant crack the daily BB 20ma, I guess that is where it may want to go. Here is the deal. If this triangle is to force the change in trend it will be THE change in trend and a major corrective will be in order. The divergences on the daily chart are impressive and if (somehow with many miracles assisting) the down trending indicators on this chart could hold here they may be enough to start the corrective.
With the VIX being thrown under the bus again, all this seriously choppy action and hte many support and resistance lines mentioned, I am speculating this is about it for the bull run. I am not sating a top is in. I am saying that technically the market should struggle to attain any serious move north from here. I would go as far to say that if the triangle were to break out, that move will produce a top within a week or two if the top is not in.

Enjoy your weekend and thanks for your views and support!