Monday, April 26, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Good morning. I hope you had a great weekend. Welcome to another melt-up Monday where the only thing that goes down is ..... well, I'll keep those thoughts to myself.

Economic Calendar - Nothing but auctions today. FOMC meeting begins and consumer confidence tomorrow.

Earnings Calendar - Lots on the list. No real market movers though. F before the open tomorrow.

Pivot Points - Know 'em.

Well, my last few posts have had the RUT's wedge, the minis wedge and the SPX wedge. You know what I'm thinking. Sorry, I can't turn the corner and run with the bulls just yet. I remind you that I have been on the buy side for quite some time (since April of last year I believe). I am by no means saying sell here, but am cautioning against a potential topping scenario. Do not sell the longs, but make sure you have an exit plan in place and those trailing stop orders at the right price. Sure, this market can go up forever, but it should have some sort of viable correction, and I think that it is coming sooner than later. Sure, at this time I'm pretty positive that I am the 1 in 100 that thinks down, but if you remember correctly I was also at one time that 1 in 100 that kept on betting to the upside.

SPX 30m - Give me a little RSI divergence and a MACDaddy cross and we should be headed back to the lower blue support line near 1200 soon.
SPX Daily - At the upper TL again a little over 4 points from the upper BB. The divergence in RSI I do not think can be ignored. The BB 20ma has been holding support during this phase. Keep an eye on that. I believe it has a chance to crack on this next correction (when and if that ever occurs). No comment on MACD's actions or the other embedded indicators.
Keep an eye on that 30m chart and the 60m as well. We're headed towards another perfect storm later today when the weekly, daily, 60 and 30m will all be overbought at the same time. Will there be a catalyst? I have no idea. the world seems pretty happy with the impending Iran/Israel war, the N and S Korea boat sinking, the issues with the PIIGS and the potential Greece default/bankruptcy/bailout and our unemployment/credit/everything situation. So, with all that good news, I'm not sure what could bring the market down.

GL out there!