Friday, April 23, 2010

Weekly SPX chart

Here is the Weekly SPX chart. The gap was closed today and where I calculate C=A was met as well. That just leaves the 200ma at 1224 and the 61.8 at 1228. The A-E wedge should be complete. Wedges can throwover, and I would expect this one to as well (it is already on certain chart platforms - yes they actually differ and I use three). Given the extended overbought daily chart producing divergences that only the Fed would ignore, I have to stick with this formation as signaling the end soon. I believe that the move off of the February lows near 1050 is the blow off top suckers run (If it isn't LOL who is the joke gonna be on?).

I have preached manipulation for over a year now. I was one of the first and still believe it is in full force. As long as there is no regulation and the carry trade is alive and well, nothing will stop this market. The fraud is extensive. If it does not turn soon, the "external event" that I have been calling for will eventually occur and rip the power away from the manipulators. Can they run this sucker flat into the elections in November? Sure! They can run it back to 1500 if they want (and they will try I'm sure).

I did really well ignoring all the falls, not calling any tops and actually calling for the larger pullback to reset the lower trendline to allow the wedge more room to run (I think I was the only one to do that). The only other option if this should fail would be a channel up that I have not presented cause this is the formation I believed in. I'm sticking with it for now. If the channel should be the play, then we adjust and move on.

If this is right, look out. My basic thoughts for a fall are a quick move for the first wave to stop at the backtest of the upper bear market trendline. then the corrective (possibly into the election) and then it lets go late this year or early next cause it will take a powerful move to drive back thru the support of the bear market TL. Here is my target chart for the first leg down (1 of 1 of P3).

I am not calling a top here. We got ramp up Monday just ahead and earnings season (not to mention the rampant fraud again) still upon us. I have also always stated that the break of the trendline supporting RSI on that weekly chart would confirm the top. That looks like it is a ways away. I have also consistently called for my "external event" to rip the market from "their" control. That may happen sooner than later if this weekly chart is right. I have no idea if the bears can mount a charge. Volume is a necessity. The bots can't trade with each other forever, can they?

Thanks for your support and have a great weekend.