Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Morning Post, E-mini, SPX, S&P500

Good morning from the sunny Florida panhandle. The 4 day beard has become a lucky trading goatee. Masters week is upon us as well. Surf is up but the futures are down. I'm gonna show you an interesting trend in the minis below so pay attention.

Pivot Points - Know 'em

Economic Calendar - Petrol at 10:30, Helicopter Ben at 1:30, Hoenig at 2:00 and consumer credit at 3:00. All could move the markets.

The push for 11,000 and 1,200 is still on. The RUT, Q's and Trans have made their goals I believe. SPX 1200 and DOW 11,000 are a breath away. Not sure if WLSH wants 12,500 or not. Sho looks like this run is running out of room for now. We all should know this market is running on fumes and the trannie (government/Fed funding) will give out eventually.

E-minis - What I want you to notice is the trend of them driving the futures up during the day and driving them down overnight when everyone is asleep. Follow the MACD and RSI below. Here we are again, gap down with oversold indicators on the futures. They create the gap down that the market wants to fill and then that momo continues to an indicator peak during the day. Rinse, repeat. That pink support line has a little crack. If the green line goes I believe something more dramatic is in store.
SPX weekly - I have been bringing you this same chart since last October. That is now 7 months or so I have been cautioning about further upside. The pattern is nearing an end. I do not see any further upside above a possible throwover of the wedge. The weeklys can climb a bit yet, but they have remained overbought since May of last year in my opinion. At this time I think 950 is a good target when it finally lets go (yes, I do think we eventually set new lows).
SPX Daily - The upper BB is pushing price into the support line. Unless some sort of dramatic surge up in the BB something has to give (I think it will be the support line). BB width is under 70 which is narrow and should cause some volatility.
GL out there. It is a tough game especially playing against a stacked deck. I'm looking for a major news event to set off this next fall which should mark the top. I'll do oil, dollar, natgas, gold and EUR post later. Sorry I have not been reporting on these like usual.