Friday, April 16, 2010

Snap Shot SPX

Thanks for a great week of views, comments and to those that hit the donate button today. I'm relieved the charts told the truth and called this move. I'll update charts and get a post out over the weekend with some thoughts. Lil' Shank #2 turns 8 Sunday and Spencer the Cavalier King Charles Spaniel turns 1 so lot's of parties this weekend.  I feel like a party! Take care and enjoy your weekend.

3:25 Update - Not sure what to think. Looks like it should be a completed corrective having retraced to the 38% fib in a nice ABC. Way quiet with volume dead or dying. If vol picks back up it could fall some more. That red support line is ont that covers the lows going back to 03/09. Beyond that is really nothing till 1140. That would be the type of fall we need for confirmation this is a P3 event. If this is a massive H&S with right shoulder forming now that gets us near 1160 in a quick move. Possible continuation Monday, but if it does not get confirmation we'll be right back to the same old stuff. Like ODA said, the foreign markets have to react to this, let's see what happens. You have to remember this market is not real. It is manipulated. I'll do a detailed post sometime this weekend.

SPX at 61.8% of the 1176 low. There is another fib point but let's work with this one for now. See blue boxes. I would kill for a crack of 1188.55. What would a bounce here form? One nasty ass H&S on the SPX. Sorry, but not updating Stockcharts today at this time. I'm a little busy and charting in TOS only as I trade. If it slows down and we get a pop I'll swing over and do what I can.
Minis went right to the target -

ODA I assume you are a happy camper today. Volume is much better. How do we analyze the fall? 1195 was the 61.8% retracement off the 1186 low. The green line is the support line from the February lows. The blue line is support from the march 16 lows. It is back into the Pink channel and the wedge from the 667 lows. 1187 is the line in the sand. If that cracks all hell might break loose. They have set this up with many technical support levels for the algos to buy away at. It will take an incredible push to get thru. After 87 I see 73. After that it gets way down. To assume a TOP is in is very likely now.

UPDATE - With the GS fraud possibilities I would expect the market to rally at least 1000 points. You know how we love to buy bad news. (That was a joke). What is not a joke is how hard the PPT is working right now to keep this market afloat. You have to ask yourself (esp given the fraud charges) why is this market not down very significantly right now? How is this not a total run away situation? Because the FUCKING FRAUD is so FUCKING RAMPANT it is out of control. So we get earthquakes, volcanoes and now GS fraud - I think SETI may be getting signals soon at this rate, but the market will never go down. What t fing joke this market is.

Mini's possible H&S target 90. I said possible. If it can crack 1200 look out. The pink and yellow trendlines are the top of a channel and the bull corrective's top TL.

Back at the recent wedge top line. Might stop here. Dashed blue is the bull corrective top TL. See the fibs. If it gets to 98 or 97 then it may bounce. 1200 is there as well.