Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Bailout nation, congratulations we will now apparently be bailing out Greece (yeah, we were, then we were not, then we were, then were not and now were again). Yes your tax dollars via the IMF will eventually reinflate all the PIIGS to keep the debt dream alive for a few more years. You see the problems lie with the assholes in government that can't face reality. These dumb shits don't want to lose their job or take an uppercut to their egos, so the reflation trade to keep the global default train on the tracks continues. It is bull shit. Austerity measures will help, but the days of superior levels of consumption supported by fantabulous debt are over. Deflation must happen. Period. Till we get that (and it will be incredibly painful) all we are doing is extending and pretending. Goldman Gets Even More Skeptical On Greece And European Domino Theory

My brief thoughts on GS - bunch of friggin greedy ass crooks that took advantage of the system for personal gains at the expense of you and me. Screw 'em.

Economic Calendar - Petrol at 10:30, a note auction at 1 and then the FOMC at 2:15 (don't expect any surprises)

Earnings Calendar -

Pivot Points - Know 'em.

OK, here is what I am thinking. Since the top is in (LOL) we have possibly completed the first drop (what the EWTers would call wave 1) and now a 2nd wave corrective is due which will then be followed by something pretty big and should be impulsive to the downside. My target for this fall is 1153. Any retracement above 1206 and I'll start to get worried about my top call. It may want to backtest the triangle near 1202. To me, if that is right, that will be the place to add to shorts (or reenter in my case since I am in cash other than my SH position). I would expect the 30m chart to signal that pretty clearly. It that call is right, then that will be the place to add or enter shorts.

Minis are up almost 6 at this time and up 10 off the overnight lows. I guess the hope of a Greek bailout is lifting the markets with more (surprise) great earnings news from some of the big defense contractors (I'll quickly add this thought, the one call I totally blew from the Obama (AKA Barry Soreto) takeover was that defense contractors would get pummeled. Well, another campaign promise goes out the window as their lobby has proven to be stronger than our president's promises). Ahhh earnings, I was very pleased to see this post on Zero Hedge that cuts thru the crap Earnings Update: Ex-Financials There Are No Upside Revenue Surprises

SPX 30m - Looks like it has had enough and with the push up this am from the minis I expect a buy signal from this chart possibly this morning. Possibly a backtest of the wedge or something to happen near the apex point of the wedge. Pretty similar set up to the fall on April 15th here. What I have to have is for something to hold RSI at the trendline on the 60m chart to keep the trend in tact. I'll report on that later.
So pop then drop is what I am looking for. Lets see if the bulls have anything left. They struggled to lift the market at the top and the bears have shown more strength over the past couple of weeks than anytime this year. With earnings boosts sill available that will help, but with the financials under pressure that may act like an anchor.

Thanks for all the nice comments and support for my top call. the bottom line is the charts forced my hand. I wanted to call it as close as comfortably possible, so I had to pull the trigger yesterday. I regret not calling it Monday when I posted the 30m chart. With Greece the PIIGS and possibly Japan in trouble, all our own banking/regulation issues here and the excessive bullish indicators on the charts and in the face of all that the extreme bullish sentiment added to the pressure for me to pull the trigger. Bottom line it was the charts that forced my hand. I had to pick one of the tops in the 30m chart and with this particular set up I had to hit the red button.

Right or wrong, we'll continue to follow the charts and do what they say to do. If we get a higher high, so be it. You all know I play the 30m chart up and down, so I do not treally care if the market goes to 1500 or 500, I just want volatility (and a fair playing surface not dominated by HFT algos skimming on every trade supporting the GS bonus/legal fee structure).