Sunday, April 18, 2010

A Few Quick Thoughts.

Sorry, but I'm spent. Planting the crisis garden, a full baseball schedule and Little Shanky's 8th bday weekend has me wiped out. You'll get a full report around 9 in the am.

Bottom line is we need to know how the foreign markets will react. The minis opened up down 4 which is not all that inspiring. A little more than 100 points on the DOW is not enough to get me all that freaked out with the carry trade still alive and kicking. We need volume. Everything is in place, the wedge, the dialy indicators, the 60m chart, the VIX and all the glorious news. I am still holding out for my "external event". I want something big. OBTW not sure if you knew but A 6.3-magnitude earthquake struck Papua New Guinea Sunday morning, the U.S. Geological Survey reported.Uh, you get the feeling something (or someone) is trying to tell us something?

Sorry, but I have to go into wait and see mode. The one chart I will share is the weekly SPX. I got the divergence in NYMO combined with the top in SPXA50 that has done a great job in timing the last few tops. Price has lived outside the top of the weekly BB for the past 5 weeks. That doji may be the ultimate signal. F Sto has crossed. RSI hit 70 and may be rolling over. If we can get the MACD hist to turn down and that S Sto cross to confirm this week, I will call top (remember the RSI cross of the trendline is my ultimate trend change indicator). Again, lets see what happens while we're asleep. Sorry, I can not make a more definitive call at this time. GL as always.

SPX Weekly Chart Link