Thursday, April 29, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

The quiet period before the Greek announcement. A time to reflect and melt up. All is well, no problems here or in the Euro zone, please move along. Greece will be bailed out in some form or fashion I think. Germany may not participate if they have a choice. Throwing good money after bad (at least one country can see reality and has taken off the rose colored glasses). What is the point? Extend and pretend as they can not in any possible way pay back all the debt they have accumulated. As I have said before, Greece will eventually default. I believe it is a 100% guarantee. Portugal and then the global dominoes fall as this whole mess ends in a coordinated global default. The credit bubble must be popped. We all have lived 40,000 feet beyond our means and our "entitlement period" as I will call it shall come to an end.

Economic Calendar - Jobs remain pitiful (even without Easter and a few snow storms to blame it on), Natgas at 10:30, Turbo Timahhhh speaks at 2:30.

Earnings Calendar - MarketWatch has your Updates, advisories and surprises here. It is almost over thank goodness.

Pivot Points -Know 'em

Minis up almost 8 at this point. Who the hell knows why. I guess the market's near term oversold condition was spun effectively by the MSM as the bottom of a cyclical bear market and off to 15,000 we go from here. Hell, they don't care if you buy or not anyway, they control all the action. This is so friggin stupid it is beyond belief. I guess if you can't push it up during the day, then you use the futures to give it a jump start. If you are a bull I'd be wary of that gap it is gonna leave at the open short term.

SPX 30m - Got the buy signal going and the minis are confirming the NT trend change on this chart this morning. Yesterday I spoke of the 1196 to 1206 range as possible retracement points. The sellers are still in the house as the bulls are struggling (during market hours at least) to move upwards with any significance at this time. Bears need to remain patient. The upper daily BB is at 1218, the upper  60m BB is at 1219 and the e-mini upper VWAP BB is at 1217. That should form a nice barrier if price should continue to climb the wall of insanity. I will continue to play this chart up and down using SPY and SH. I am currently long a small SH position from Monday and am considering some very short term long plays here (just in case). I am not long SPY now because I actually thought the corrective had a chance to end yesterday near the close. At some point the 30 and 60m indicators will embed on the bottom instead of the top. With the daily indicators in (what appears to be) a strong move south and the weeklys turning, I kinda expected that to happen here.
This market is friggin nuts. It is manipulated. It is all they have left between them and total collapse and they can not let it go. It is my belief that the market has topped. How should you play it? Very tentatively with stops in place. As stated, I play the 30m chart up and down. I also play the 1m chart up and down. Just jumping in and buying BGZ for the long haul is not the way to do it. You must be nimble. You should be willing to play both sides. This corrective is key to my top call. Let's see how it plays out. Bottom line it it could literally break out or break down at any moment . Look at the action over the past few weeks. Sorry I can not be more specific at this time, but with Greece and the PIIGS hanging over everyone's head we really are in kind of a wait and see mode.