Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Dollar Disaster? Gold/SPX Movement?

Tough call on the dollar. Ranking in my top three of the most manipulated things in the universe (with Gold and Oil) who the heck knows whats going on? Maybe it is our turn to fall. EUR has had its time in the sun being devalued to prop up the EU, now is it our turn? As I have asked before, did they create a false strength in the dollar to set up room to fall to counteract a potentially weakening or topping market all along helping the EU out of a hole? Is is possible that the EUR could really strengthen? Yeah, I know, when PIIGS fly maybe. Thus the conundrum, how much can the dollar weaken and against what? bout an unpegged Yuan? The dollars correlation with the market has been an off and on love affair recently, however if they should begin to hook up again, the bulls may retain momo. On the other hand, the market's recent strength combined with the dollar's climb leaves one to wonder, should the both be due for a fall? This is some really screwy stuff.

Daily chart - completes a 50% retracement and gap fill then takes out support line (yellow) off of the lows. Those indicators do not look good either. 79.12 is the 38% fib,  78.17 is the 50% fib and 77.23 is the 61.8% fib.
Weekly chart - this appears that the fall is just getting cranked up.
Now - how will gold react to the dollar's potential plunge. Most are thinking that gold remains in a sideways trend for some time remaining range bound for some time before the next break out (I think it can retrace to 950 before further strength and that future valuation issues and other stuff will make gold very sketchy in the future - you must own the physical if you are going to own it at all). Here is a chart with the SPX, Gold and the dollar all in one place. It appears that recently the correlation between the dollar with SPX and gold had been disturbed somewhat, but if it should regain the trend, that would be bullish for both the market and gold if the dollar should crumble.