Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500

Good morning! After the AA miss the minis sank as low as 1188 and are now in rally mode recovering back to 1191 at this point 1.5 points down. Guess where the 30m indicators are? Yup, trending up off of the bottom. Amazing how they manufacture small gap down open that will fill creating momo for another low volume bleed up. Even the 60m indicators are coming off the floor this am. Someone please send a hearty congrats to Ben and the gang for another fine job. Looks like another great short setup has been averted.

Earnings Calendar - Yes, it is that time of year again. INTC after the close and JPM before the open tomorrow. Should make for an interesting day.

Economic Calendar - Quiet today but tomorrow and Thursday get really busy.

Pivot Points - Know 'em.

SPX Daily - With the minis at the upper corrective resistance line and in the ending stages of a rising wedge and the dailys at the upper end of a narrowing BB and the VIX with it's head in the sand and the the SPX at the end of what I am calling a rising wedge and that the market is overbought and that there are significant divergences on the daily chart that one would think that any day now this thing would have to puke up a lung or two. Not so fast my friend. The bots, the Fed and the Treasury have things well under control. It is close, should be very close to some sort of solid corrective. Given the trouble with the PIIGS and our own states issues this may be the top. There are so many issues (as documented here nightly) that can not be overcome that it is only a matter of time before some real trouble hits.
Dollar - I think the corrective may be over. After closing the gap and completing a 50% retracement of the original fall, it has cracked a support line I have, the dailys are falling and the weeklys have topped.This combined with the position of the EUR should say it is our turn to get weak. With the isssues with the PIIGS I would not trust the charts as currency speculation at this time is very dangerous. I am not sure if the on/off correlation with the SPX is worth looking at any more, but if the dollar should weaken, that bodes well for the markets (ya think they know a fall is coming and have set the dollar up to support a falling market?
OIL - Still has some room to run. Dailys overbought but the weeklys are not quite there just yet. It is at resistance and could top here, but there is also room up to 95.
Natgas - Might be forming a base or will continue what I think is a corrective before further weakness.
Gold - Weekly indicators say more strength. I think any more troubles with Greece and you may see a good pop to previous highs. It is out the top of it's weekly BB with RSI pulling off of 70, so maybe some weakness here should be expected.

EUR/USD - the weekly and daily indicators combiled with a breakout of the channel down and a completed 61.8% retracement of the climb from 08 to 09 should say more upside to come. I don't believe it. I'm not sure the EUR is still around 2 years from now.
EUR/JPY - basing as well with some strength.

GL out there. If something happens, I'll post a chart ASAP.