Morning charts 02/28/13 SPX /ES

Party on Garth! Party on Wayne! That's the message that we received from the Bernank over the past couple of days of (worthless) testimony. Of course the markets react accordingly and all fears are quickly forgotten.

Sequestration, that's just another veiled threat or more pomp from the elected shills to give the world the illusion that they are actually trying to do something in DC to quell the debt crisis. We all know in reality it is no more than lipstick on a pig cause they will never stop spending. They can't. It's not in their DNA (what is in their DNA should be questioned and removed from the gene pool).

Starting today with the loss of Benedict, I believe we are entering an extremely turbulent time where serious changes (politically, socially and economic) are on the horizon.

If you are not know about or are in tune with St. Malachy's papal prophecies then you need to read this. This post is much more in depth and would be a good look for those with more questions. What is happening with the church is no small matter. Belittling or overlooking what's happening here is a serious mistake. The financial and social (both directly and indirectly related to the church) collapse has finally wound its way into the worlds largest sanctuary. Bottom line is this is some freaky stuff happening at some really freaky times.

Morning Charts 02/27/13 SPX /ES

What's become so difficult is believing, believing in anything these days. Lies upon more lies is all we have to go on. Trusting in anything is nearly impossible. Listening to the Bernank and his testimony yesterday was a truly saddening experience. Here we have the elected leaders of our nation supposedly grilling the Fed chair and all we got were a bunch of softball questions and misleading answers.

"I do not believe the market is in a bubble" was one of my favs. Have you ever heard that one before and when? Another was when The Bernank dared to mention the two words "unfunded liabilities" in a brief discussion of the true debt of the nation and was quickly cut off by the senator asking the question. The ultimate answer to the "real debt" - they came close to $30 trillion  - which is about $110 trillion short of the real answer (think unfunded liabilities). Fannie and Freddie were also whisked by in the questioning. Its like these things don't even exist (cause if they did, we'd be up shit creek without a paddle).

I will tell you what is real - the coming financial collapse. Whether it be thru the failure of the quadrillion market for CDS, the destruction of the world's reserve currency, the collapse of a debt ridden entitlement state with over one hundred and twenty trillion in unfunded liabilities - heck,  you complete the list of potential disasters there are to many for me to list here - add 'em all up and you will grasp the real reality, the real truth. Not one thing they tell you is real.

I have been fretting March for some time. Knowing what to think about sequestration is impossible. They even batted around the possibility of nullifying the notion yesterday in the testimony. Really? At this time all I can say is remain patient with the markets (if that is possible). I do believe we're very close to the top, and that March will prove to be a very pivotal month.

We lose a Pope tomorrow - let that soap opera begin and bring on Peter the Roman.

On to the Markets -

Morning Charts 02/26/13 SPX /ES

I almost pulled the trigger on a top call today and am not sure how much longer I can hold out. I "talked top" last week and gave all sorts of reasoning why it is a much more difficult task this time than in the past. Mainly there is no clear end to QEternity which is the main fear of every bear. I have to hear The Bernank speak today and after that I may make a move. As noted for some time March has the potential to be a period where many market turning catalysts will present themselves. As shown, the last three major tops have all occurred in April. Add that for well over a year now I have been forecasting that they would not be able to take the charade past Q1 of 2013. I think we're very near the end if not at it.

Who would have thought that an election in Italy of all places would rock the boat so tremendously? Things were rolling along nicely with all governments in line and moving in sync with the crony capitalist plan for global bankster domination. Then all of a sudden a democracy cries out and poof! in an instant we go from cruise control to near total panic. We all knew that things under the surface were not well at all. We all know what supports the system and that the government controlled MSMs lies to us on a daily basis about the "recovery". All it took was a ... catalyst.

Morning Charts 02/25/13 SPX /ES

Looking at the Key Macro Events Coming This Week posted on ZH things look busy and IMO Tuesday could prove a rocky beginning to the week. The Bernank testifies to the Senate Banking Committee that day. Late in the week Thursday and Friday are chocked full of potential market moving data. This is also a big week for earnings as retail comes in hot and heavy. I guess we'll find out if all those student loans and disability checks have been put to good use or not.

Nothing like a stealth post Friday close when no one is watching UK downgrade. We have not seen the post Friday close trick in a while. Is it time for that stealth maneuver to begin a comeback? Who cares as bad news is the best news and the market will greet it with joy, cause that only guarantees that more printing will come despite recent hints at the Fed's discussions of how to end the easing.

Turbulent times are coming folks. Well, real turbulence, not the printed over reality we've been dealing with for the past four years. The can can not be kicked much further and even the Fed is beginning to figure this out. Everything they have attempted to "kick start" the economy has failed. Now it is time to stop easing and they can't. The stimulus addicted (re: entitled) economy is running out of easy funding as the debt mounts to unsustainable levels.

Going backwards at this time is not an option, so they will continue to print till it just implodes. That is all they can do at this point. Social unrest is coming with either scenario, so they may as well make it as painless as possible for as long as possible regardless the consequences. As discussed here many times in the past their last out is the confiscation of the retirement system. The $19 trillion in savings is what they have their eyes on as the ultimate bailout. Then we become truly socialized. Why else do you think they are going after the guns so hard? They are gonna really piss some people off when they start confiscating 401k and IRA assets.

On to the markets -

Open Weekend Post 02/23-24/13

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

Not much to say that I have not said this week. I may go into more why March and the number 322 are freaking me out a bit. Lots happening next month. Chance for multiple "events" or catalysts really exist there both on the reality and conspiracy side of things. From O going to Israel to the new pope to the debt ceiling discussions and so forth. I suspect I will be on edge for the next three weeks more than usual.

For a mind blowing look at behind the money and 9/11 (I promise you have seen none of this) check this out. Pretty fascinating stuff.



Enjoy the weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning Chartapalooza 02/22/13 SPX /ES

Well, we finally got the pressure valve release to relinquish some of the overthrown overbought situation. Now what? Do they ramp it from here? Do the bears keep the ball for another 3 to 5%? All it took was for the Fed to mention the possibility of taking some easing off the table and  POOF! the SPX fell 35 points in no time. Of course the Fed's good Dr. Bullard (or is that Bulltard?) comes to save the day this morning reminding us all the the "easy" money is here to say for a "long time", and the reversal is quelled in its tracks.

And there you have modern market theory in a nutshell, ease off - fail, ease on - ramp. There is nothing more to it than that. Should make for easy reading and workload in modern finance 101 classes. In fact they can probably start teaching that in an advance or AP class in 4th grade.Modern Finance 102 will be a bit more difficult - How to Bribe/Blackmail a Senator and Make Him Your Slave. 

Off to the charts - to say we're at the edge of a major cliff would be an understatement.

Over bought and overthrowing are never a good combination. With negative Fed speak, the CONgress coming back in session to discuss the budget and all the other economic goodness going around the turbulence might just be getting started for the markets. We all know how this will end, 11th hour printfest, so no fears mate (till the bill comes due). It is all a dog and pony show to distract you from reality. About 5% of what you hear will be the truth. Bottom line as the charts will show is that we're at a very precarious point where the slightest slip and everything, I mean everything, falls off a cliff. The Fed sees this. the administration sees this. The whole globe is becoming aware of this. Thus printapalooza will go on unabated till they can't anymore, then we all burn in hell. Which I think is not too far off from now.

Morning Charts 02/21/13 SPX /ES

Yesterday STB was talking top. If you missed it please go read it. Over the past several weeks we've been building the case for a coming top of some sort. The charts are ready for a major turn, as in set up worse than the '00 and '08 tops (especially on the weekly and monthly charts). Right now just looking at SPX and the last two corrections one would have to first point to the daily 200ma that stopped the last two falls. This would be a move to near the 1400 round level and be around an 8% corrective. There is also a double fib convergence near 1370 if it should overshoot the 200ma as it has in the past as well.

Another clue will be the VIX (busted, I know). A move to or near the 48 level has stopped the last two falls as well. Over the next three months the VIX will begin challenging major downtrend resistance diagonals. there are three of them. A break of these should mark the beginning of the end of the end I believe.

The 1407 mark and the 1370 levels would be my first two major targets here if  the Fed can let the market correct that much. You all should know my fixation on the 1374 level by now. That is the point where I believe we had the first shot at the major top for the run off the 667 lows. Before those points there are several intermediate targets we have to deal with first. We'll get to those as they come, cause we're not going to put the cart ahead of the Fed's carrot. We have to patiently let any downside action come to us and can't force anything, cause "they" are still in control.

Morning Charts 02/20/13 SPX /ES "Talking Top"

So here we sit at CB's well called inverted HnS 1530 (golf clap), now what else could be left in this era of unprecedented intervention and market rigging? The days of Fed liquidity QE on/off are gone now. QEfinity is entrenched like a permanent hopium drip. The past major tops were relatively easy calls. When the money stopped so did the levitating act.

Not only has the Fed pledged QE till eternity, but the amount of QE has been steadily increasing as well. As discussed here at STB for years now the diminishing returns of additional QE at these market levels are quite apparent. Maybe stocks are taking a clue from big oil. You know, the new economics where less demand and greater supply equal higher prices? Who knows? Bottom line is the Fed is now in a position where they can't stop or else.

Here we sit with the fiscal cliff and past debt ceilings deals with the devil coming due again. Kicking the can always has consequences that have to be dealt with in the future and our date has arrived. Sequestration and the automatic budget cuts are upon us. Is reality about to bite? Is the lame duck (or dictator - pick one) administration about to actually do something responsible for a change? Will they print their way out of this mess as well? Like a friggin soap opera with a cliff hanger at the end of each episode, but the endings are always so predictable. They must print.