Open Weekend Post 11/29-30/2014

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

If you see it, share it. I will as well.

Have a good weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 11/28/2014 SPX /es

I'll be lighting trees, hunting (or golf not sure) and doing all sorts of other stuff today. I'll check in at some point. Hope all had a good Turkey Day.

Down should start soon, at least for some sort of brief swoon.

Have a good weekend.


GL and GB!

Happy Thanksgiving!

Happy Thanksgiving to all at STB. 

Morning Charts 11/26/2014 SPX /es

post


That's all you get today.


STB in holiday mode.

I will update some charts today. I think we finally get a dip of some sort next week.


More to come below.

Have a great Thanksgiving.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 11/25/2014 SPX /es

The GDP news is just enough to make me sick this morning. I'm not gonna let it spoil my holiday week. I'm not gonna get ticked off and rant. I'm just gonna ignore it as best as possible, The lies upon lies upon lies are so thick now what does it matter? Lies are all they have left now. 



More to come below. 


Have a good day. 


GL and GB!

Morning Charts 11/26/2014 SPX /es

Holiday week and STB is in holiday mode off the bat. Other than the Ferguson verdict, I see nothing that excites me. OPEC deal is a wait and see thing for me, but that's all about the dollar. The CB's will do what they do in a low volume vacuum. I think if you are looking for a drop you may get one next week, but it will be brief. Bears can prolly take the rest of the year off. 




More to come below. 

Have a good week. 

GL and GB!

Open Weekend Post 11/22-23/2014

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge. 

If you see it, share it. I will as well. 

As painful and (more then likely) fruitless as it may be, I'll update some charts this week and may completely redo a few. I'll post anything I find interesting. 

Thanks for another awesome week on the blog. Y'all killed it as usual. Great discussion and info - it's amazing what y'all contribute. 


Have a good weekend. 

GL and GB! 

Morning Charts 11/21/2014 SPX /es

Ya know, never, ever, never, never, never discount the holiday ramp. As in - NEVER!

I'm not sure the Chinese time stuff for everyone's benefit or not, but last night's rate cut just crushed those anticipating a potential turn today. 

The US is now a dictatorship. 

Ferguson verdict coming. 

On to the lie - 

Well, boy am I glad I did not bother to mess with any charts this week. Would have been a waste of time. I'll have to update this weekend though. Nothing like sitting down and charting up a disaster only to see some idiotic action send futures soaring at the most improbable moments to overthrow after overthrow of technical situations that would otherwise suggest different. 

SPX Daily - One would think the pop off valve would have to blow and release some steam, but then again in fantasy land does anything associated with reality matter?  Looking at the setup, the dailys need a larger negative divergence. This would require a pullback and then pop. How that happens is beyond my comprehension, as if neg divs matter anymore anyway. 

More to come below. 

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 11/20/2014 SPX /es

OK - I'm somewhat alive and actually up and in the office this AM. Sadly my energy level is zilch, and since I quite literally have not looked at the markets or any news in over 48 hours I won't be offering any commentary again today (at least up here). 


On to the lie - 


SPX Daily - This is all just so flippin stupid. When this thing lets go there could literally be a 100 point gap down in the SPX. No, I'm not kidding. Total control, until not. 

More to come below. 

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 11/20/2014 SPX /es

Feel really bad again this morning. so no post - sorry.






More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 11/18/2014 SPX /es

Think I got the flu. Gonna skip post this AM. Sorry. 




More to come below.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 11/17/2014 SPX /es

Running late after a really long weekend, so not much this morning. I'm still playing catch up. 

What may be a market event and more importantly a social/police state or gun control event in Ferguson may go down this week. See All Hell is About to Break Lose. Not sure if this becomes as large as Trayvon, but it could. I'd expect the MSM to hype this to the max for better or worse, and I'd expect the administration to possibly use the cover to implement policy while the sheeple are distracted. 

I'm not gonna cover any market stuff this morning. I have not checked any news since Friday morning. 


On to the lie - 


SPX Daily - Overthrowing and overbought. Still looking for a correction then ramp to EOY - then possibly SHTF. 

More to come below. 

Have a good week. 

GL and GB!

Open Weekend Post 11/15-16/2014

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge. 

If you see it, share it. I'll do the same. 

I'll try to update some charts this weekend. 



Have a great weekend. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 11/14/2014 SPX /es

STB is in one of those brief periods of total disgust with everything. To use my bad horror movie analogy again, everyone (govt, Feds, sheeple, domestic and foreign) seem to be gleefully lining up to go into the attic where we all know nothing good ever happens. 

I'm not going into full blown rant mode this morning. I don't have the energy. I need to get back to some old school STB and have a few good blow out posts. The sheer idiocy of it all. I hate it. I can't stand to see folks make idiotic clueless decisions. I absolutely get totally peeved when people don't use their brains, and we're all guilty of this right now.

We've all been sitting on our collective asses for years now allowing the Fed and the government to destroy this nation. Everyone cocooning, hoping and praying to be left alone, just leave me be. Fat and happy in our comfy homes with all the electronics and GMO food we can possibly consume and more. Don't bother me with external minutiae. We sit gleefully soaking up the MSM meme hoping the government has everything well under control. 

Hope is the key word there. Well, we've seen what hope has delivered over the past 6 years, and the 8 years before that were not that great either. Bottom line is if we don't do something soon to force the government to act responsibly, say jail a banker (or 100), end the Fed, change foreign policy, represent the people and not the corporations, not only is there gonna be a financial collapse (unavoidable at this point), but there might be a democracy collapse which would be far worse. 

Planned event or not, it is still our nation, with our Constitution and our Bill of Rights, not theirs. They are supposed to work for us not them. This last election was somewhat reassuring regarding the sheeple's stance. We spoke loud and clear. Hopefully there will be some sort of check on executive abuse now. Hopefully that check won't evolve into an extreme on the other side of the isle of power. 

Two words - apparently long forgotten, must be resurrected. 

responsibility

[ri-spon-suh-bil-i-tee]  

• Synonyms
• Examples
• Word Origin

noun, plural responsibilities.

1.

the state or fact of being responsible, answerable, or accountable for something within one's power, control, or management.

2.

an instance of being responsible :

The responsibility for this mess is yours!

3.

a particular burden of obligation upon one who is responsible :

the responsibilities of authority.

4.

a person or thing for which one is responsible :

A child is a responsibility to its parents.

5.

reliability or dependability, especially in meeting debts or payments.

accountability

[uh-koun-tuh-bil-i-tee]  

• Examples
• Word Origin

noun

1.

the state of being accountable, liable, or answerable.

2.

Education. a policy of holding schools and teachers accountable forstudents' academic progress by linking such progress with funding forsalaries, maintenance, etc.

These words have been replaced by lazy and leach. The transition will not be easy, but I have a feeling that the change, whether we want it or not, will be forced upon us soon (since it's quite apparent we're not about to do a damn thing as a collective to right the wrong). At least to me, the coming change will be very welcomed. I want my country back. 



I'm still holding that short opened earlier this week. 



More to come below. 

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 11/13/2014 SPX /es

I highly suggest that you read Sentiment is "Off The Charts" Bullish on Zero Hedge. Of the 11 horrific charts in the post, this one impressed me the most. It is Margin Debt as a Percent of the Economy. Nothing good happens up here - no matter who is in control. Risk off? Really? More like, "event" when?

The STB Bullish Percent chart could be in that post as well. BP to SPX is even worse now than it was in July when I was freaking out then. Negative divergences on this chart tend to not bode well for Mr. Market.

I'm sure you don't need a review of the scenario we're in right now, but a glance at this chart should make you question things just a bit (especially after reading the ZH post above). Overthrowing multi-year resistance with all those monthly negative divergences is not a good scenario. ZH also has a post 392 Weeks that mirrors this chart. 

As the ZH post says, 

"Unfortunately, since most individuals only consider the "bull case," as it creates confirmation bias for their "greed" emotion, they never see the "train a'comin."

Hopefully, these charts will give you some food for thought. With everybody so bullish, what could possibly go wrong?"

It took me a while to figure out the Fed's game. First it took some time but this new QE things finally caught on. Liquidity was the fuel. Liquidity was everything. Then later reality kicked in, conspiracy theory became fact (again). The markets were rigged and "Follow the Fed" became the STB daily mantra.

Unfortunately, the Fed sees all these charts and others (bond markets, overseas markets, pm's) as well. They know the rubber band has stretched to the max, any more pressure and it will snap. 

Yesterday I covered QE and the myth that the taper was real. Their backs are to the wall now, and they are on their last clip of ammo. This time they did "end" QE, nominally. Now the banks are pumping in all that free cash they accumulated over the past few years. This IMO is not an accident but a known/planned action. They knew the day would come they'd have to stop QE, but the liquidity train must keep running - or else. 

So, even though we see all the charts, the extreme levels of insanity, greed and control must persist, for if they don't, then everything, every policy, every dollar printed, every lie about reform, everything collapses. This moment will come, and what we become of after this event is anyone's guess. One thing is for sure real pain will be inescapable by all.

All I can do is try and warn you of the potential of this event happening. Remember the gates are closed, cause when the event happens and everyone runs for the exit at the same time they will find the doors closed. Capital controls will kick in and your hard earned money will become theirs. 


On to the lie - 

SPX 30m - Still, my best guess is a retracement to possibly the 1980 area to set the lower red rising wedge support and then one final ramp to shut it all down.

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 11/12/2014 SPX /es

I've noted on a few occasions over the years that I'm tired of saying the same thing over and over and over again, but when financial collapse, theft, social unrest and our democracy lie in the balance I guess getting tired is not an option. We must press on. 

Some here may think my elevator does not go all the way to the top floor, or that I'm a few fries short of a happy meal - to those folks all I can say is that confirmation of my thoughts from those in the industry or in the know is my best defense. 

I've been discussing the coming collapse, the fact that they cant raise rates and that there is stealth QE. Fortunately another industry insider has offered opinion that aligns with STB's preaching over the years. The former Golmanite Nomi Prins writes - 

"what lingers in the air of “post-taper” time is an absence of absence. For QE is not over. Instead, in the United States, the process has simply morphed from being predominantly executed by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to being executed by its major private bank members."

and

"Last quarter, US Treasuries were the fastest growing form of security bought by banks, increasing by 26.3% or $72 billion over the prior quarter. As the Fed tapered, banks stepped in to do their part in the coordinated Fed-private bank QE game. In the past year, banks have added $185.8 billion of US Treasuries to their books, more than doubling their share of government debt."

and

"Aside from the shift to a globalization of QE via the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) as I wrote about earlier, what lingers in the air of “post-taper” time is an absence of absence. For QE is not over. Instead, in the United States, the process has simply morphed from being predominantly executed by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to being executed by its major private bank members."

and

"When this sham finally buckles and the next shoe falls and rates do eventually rise, the stock market will tank, liquidity will die, and the broader economy will plunge into a worse Depression than before. We are not there yet because of these coordinated moves and the political force behind them. But we are on a precarious path to that inevitability. "

So, now you know I'm not the only Chicken Little or blowing smoke. STB loves confirmation of his long standing thoughts from the experts. I've technically been a bear or knowing of our path to destruction since the early 1990's. It's not hard to see when debt is piling up to far beyond what would appear to be sustainable or responsible levels. 

The sham is real and the system will fail. It may be time for me to do another prepper post. This farce is winding down. They are almost out of rope. The edge of the cliff is crumbling. Negative interest rates and then capital controls are coming. Remember the gates are closed. Whatever is in their system is not yours.

Remember this and act accordingly. Reduce your personal debts, remove your assets from the system, pm's are a wise choice for diversification, prepare for the worst to come, cause it more than likely will be worse than anything you can imagine. Time is running out. 
On to the lie - 

I swung a short just before the close yesterday. I don't take swinging shorts lightly as you know. I think I've had less than 5 swing trades in the last three years. Stops are semi-tight, amount is small and the trade will be monitored closely. Most know I'm looking for a smaller retracement first, a pop and then the big bang. Call this trade a trial run where I'm getting my swing sea legs back under me. 

Daily SPX - I may be early, but I believe it's time to start taking some pot shots at this manipulated POS. Manipulated being the key word. The setup here on the daily is not all that and a bag of chips - it gets to that point I believe after the next pop when divergences truly set. 

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Veterans Day and Morning Charts 11/11/2014 SPX /es

Veterans Day - let STB be the first to thank all those that served our country and helped make this nation what it is (was?). Your personal sacrifice is recognized and very much appreciated. 

Now, if we can only address the current administration's ignorance towards vets and the purge of those that won't fire on US citizens this would be a much better place. Vets should not have to force their way through barricades into WWII memorials, the VA hospitals should be taking care of vets and not letting them die and homeland security should not see veterans as a top terror threat. 

Is this any way to treat those that lay their life on the line so we can all be free? My how times have changed. Ticker tape parades have become DHS databases. Granted the role of the military has changed as well. What was once used to deter and defend is now (IMHO) used primarily for destabilization and to protect corporate assets. They are more than a modern day mercenary force sent to do the banks bidding overseas protecting the petrodollar, but not by much. 

I often wonder if vets second guess their service knowing what this country has devolved to? Sadly there are thousands that don't get that chance. They paid the ultimate price - sometimes I wonder - for what, based on the socialist path we're headed down. 

Maybe the DHS is right about the current returning veterans being potential terrorists? They are recruiting and training mercenaries that after leaving the military become black ops doing who knows what around the globe. Maybe the DHS is smart enough to be concerned about government taking advantage of their service under false pretenses (recruiting to defend liberty and then using them as meat) and their returning not so happy about what they were used for? 

Bottom line is we have generations of warriors that gave everything so we could be free. This is no small undertaking. The sacrifices were enormous. Then today, at this time, we have a different scenario where the military chases government sponsored and created bogeymen around the globe (while guarding the poppy fields which in turn leads to bank profits thru money laundering) to justify the trillions spent on the military every year. Remember, someone warned us about the military industrial complex all the way back in 1961. 

Sadly, the way we are headed, we may need them to change their focus once again, back to defending the nation. The current administration, global economic conditions and the fact that we've destabilized things to a point everyone is on edge are all leading to a new cold war era and possibly worse. I've warned almost since the beginning of Obozo's presidency he'd need and have a war. The way things look today, we may get one. 

To the current military, mercenaries or not, they still deserve our thanks and gratitude, cause they will always be there for us. While it is impossible to ignore and hard to approve of what they are doing in the meantime, they are only doing as they are ordered. 

Maybe removal of the liar in chief with his pro muslim stance and socialist policies would be the best for all of us and solve some of the problem. The real issue lies with the central banks, US corporate interests and expansion policies where the military is used for profit and control. This agenda has secured our wealth but made us a deeply hated nation across the globe. 

Our strategies today are not much different than those used in the days when the early empires where forming modern day nations. Profit and grow through expansion via taking over foreign lands, controlling their resources and using favorable economic relationships to expand corporate growth. Sadly, our military is used to rape and pillage the globe now all in the name of democracy. 

Thanks again to all the vets and their families out there and those that gave and paid the ultimate price. I for one will not allow your service to go without recognition or for want. If necessary I'm ready to step up and fight for everything you fought for. I'm afraid that on our current course that force will be the only way to stop the socialist expansion of the US government. Let's pray that's not true, and let's also pray that we can avoid WWIII. 


On to the lie - 


Weekly SPX - You know, whatever - tick, tick, tick. The promise of QE and deficit mega-expansion will not be sustainable. They've gone too too far this time. 

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 11/10/2014 SPX /es

Well, Hussman is a little more optimistic than STB - 

"a normalization effort is going to then basically expose that the stock market is roughly overvalued by 100%"

"100%, yes. I actually think the case is a little bit harsher than that; in fact, quite a bit harsher than that."

and I'm not about to move that target box I've had here for a few years now - 

As a matter of fact most know that I think there is a high degree of probability that the market after the next crash may either not exist or survive as something that does not remotely resemble what we have today. Like what we play in today resembles anything from the past anyway ..... 



On to the lie - 

Pre Veterans Day lull? This is not a holiday one would think this administration recognizes (for numerous reasons they have proven - thus no ramp). Right now the charts look to me like a potential large rising wedge where the lower support diagonal has not been set or realized at this time. The A, B and C points are in but the D and E points still remain to evolve. 

This thought works with counts and other thoughts of a correction to come and then a move higher. This setup would work well with an anticipated Xmas ramp and then plummet later, possibly in January (which is what I've been thinking for some time). The catalysts starting in January under the new Congress will be many (not like there are not tens of catalysts in existence already). 

SPX 60m - The blue rising wedge is kinda what I think we may be looking at. All ST charts a re primed for a move south. 

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Open Weekend Post 11/08-09/2014

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge. 

If you see it, share it. I'll do the same. 

STB overdue for some chart updates, but given this past week you know why I did not bother. 

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 11/07/2014 SPX /es

Bout the only thing I got this morning is that we're now supposed to be worried about Russian Malware that can like shut down America or something like that. You know I'm worried about an event, and maybe there is a chance this is a primer for something to come. Odds are that this is just another scare tactic that they will use to delve further into our devices. 

Things are beginning to pick back up now that the election is over. Same old news stories being recycled thru the system, but some of the focus has changed. Ebola, which they were touting to have like 40 billion cases in Africa by this time a month or so ago is barely even front page news now. Immigration (other than the threat of amnesty) has all but disappeared from MSM coverage. It's amazing how they use the MSM to manipulate public thought. It's also amazing how we fall for the same line of shit over and over again. 

To me. it's almost like there is an identity crisis now that the democraps are not in control. Pelosi and Reed have thankfully been relegated to irrelevant status. Everyone now must wait on the republicans to make their first move. I'm enjoying the quite ot of DC for now. 

As for more important economic and market news - petrodollar, oil, gold/silver, GDP miss, buybacks, earnings revisions, treasuries, rigged markets, ECB, IMF - same threats but with a bit more caution surrounding them than before the election. Apparently there may be some discomfort in the global financial arena with the power change in DC. 

As we all know, nothing, I mean nothing matters but QE (simply spoken, promised or actually delivered). 


On to the lie - 

SPX 60m - Incredible. Still my favorite chart from last summer till now (30m is a close second). I'm watching the backtest of those green diagonals that guarded price so well last time. Price remains same as the past week, near term negative divergences continue to set and then get abused. I'd like to see some sort of pullback and soon. If they are gonna do a turkey day ramp and then Xmas ramp, they really should let some steam off first. This would allow for the daily indicators to set up proper negative divergences for the January plummet as well. Of course they may just decide to shove it in the face of the bears once again. 

More to come below. 

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 11/06/2014 SPX /es

Don't be fooled by their actions/control - Simple - you tell me where the truth lies - 

US Mint Sells Out Of Silver Eagles Following "Tremendous" Demand or “Global Scramble” For Silver - Coins “Hard To Get,” “Premiums Likely To Jump” or this

Not sure how many years I've been trying to encourage you to buy silver coins. DCAing into physical PMs is really no a bad idea. 

Lot's of balls in the air. I think the markets are nervous for many reasons, but then again all that matters is QE - nothing else (yet). 


On to the lie - 

SPX 30m - Just keeps getting worse, but we've seen this before many times. Two overthrows and needing another. What's different this time is that the overthrows used to backtest the point of overthrow before moving higher. This markets desperately needs a correction of some sort. 

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 11/05/2014 SPX /es

Now that we got the election behind us, can they actually fix anything? I'm not gonna hold my breath. At least one huge positive occurred yesterday, socialism was soundly denounced. He says his policies were absolutely on the ticket, yet another mistake in a long line of bad decisions over the past 6 years.  He's been defeated by the entitlement class he was sent to expand. That's about as low as it gets. 

Now the dangerous part comes, the lamest duck ever fighting to preserve his legacy of lies and failed policies. He must stay the course, Ocare, amnesty, failed foreign policy, even flotus' school lunch program - there has been nothing they have touched that has not become complete failure. O must be feeling like every time he goes to the hoop he gets rejected in the most horrible way. 

Unfortunately he's not through fighting. I'd suspect the "most transparent" potus who was going to be the great unifier will raise his policy of social division to the highest level he can. Desperate people in power are the most dangerous. This man has failed at every turn. This could lead to a manufactured "event" that will attempt to make him a great savior. He's got nothing to hang his hat on. He needs an "event" now more than ever. 

Fortunately Pelosi and Reed are not in the majority now. I sincerely hope the GOP makes those two, especially, feel twice the pain they doled out when they were in power. 


On to the lie - 

SPX Daily - Markets overnight reaction was basically immune to the change in power. This further exemplifies there is only one thing that matters and one thing only - easing. Price is at the backtest of busted rising blue channel support (on the minis this is the STB Red Diagonal of Death). This is a very dangerous spot for bully.  Check busted support at a new ATH after an undeserved improbable potential bull trap run - this is one of those spots you must consider as an ultimate topping point. 

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 11/04/2014 SPX /es

The futures tonight and in the morning will be fun to watch I suspect. Till then, it should be a waiting game. 

There are certain days when Zero Hedge hits on all my thoughts -yesterday was one of those days - 

What have I been saying for a long time that was proven in July and again in late September - Vaporize. Take your profits and let the rest run - at least for now. Have an exit plan - use options to protect downside on long term holds so you at least have time to make a decision if things go south without being exposed to much of a loss. You can also use that point as a definitive floor or pain threshold where you finally bail. That decision will have to come, be prepared. 

As I have warned repeatedly, there will come a time when (those that are left) will all want out at the same time. I suggest you be out before that hits. This run, regaining the 10% loss in record time, sure has all the earmarks of that last bull trap. This post from Zero Hedge hits on that thought - Bubble Exit Rule - I also like it when the "experts" hit on an STB call that is close to 5 years old now -  

"Those expecting hyperinflation from these money printing measures will have to wait awhile. It will happen after deflation engulfs the world and those in power panic. "

As for this run, a hint of what it's partially made of (buybacks) and the result of what happens when it (buybacks) suddenly stop (without the prior liquidity pump as support) see this.

And finally see - Something is Seriously Broken at ZH - Dislocated does not even begin to describe this market. A picture can tell 1,000 words. 


On to the lie - 

SPX weekly - Without comment. 

SPX Monthly - Sooooo close. 

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 11/03/2014 SPX /es

At this point it's all about the election. I'm not sure what's "priced in or not, or about the market reaction to either side winning or if it even matters. 


On to the lie - 

SPX 60m - Whatever. Overthrow of the neg div to even more neg divs. Ahhh, the promise and power of QE. 

More to come below. 

Have a good week. 

GL and GB!