Quick post I may add to, not sure.
To cliff or not to cliff and how will they paper is over. Government runs out if money (again, again, again) tonight.
Charts say the cliff will be steep and deep (like what the STB's are skiing now).
Daily SPX - If this is a top, like I have been saying, the game is over, and the markets are heading towards a world of hurt.
And your usual New Years gift from me (for the 4th year now) -
Happy New Year!
GL and GB!
Sunday, December 30, 2012
Saturday, December 29, 2012
Open Weekend Post 12/29-30/12
You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.
No time to bitch about the cliff this morning, but just like in similar situations in the past either nothing happens till the 11th hour or they don't get the job done. Most know it is all pointless and nothing more than political positioning. Bears can't forget the market is totally rigged. Bears can't forget that the market could react with glee to anything at any moment no mattter how bad. The more the shorts pile up from the extreme bullish position, the more dangerous it becomes to be on the short side. They love to slaughter the bears, and it has become one of their best strategies for lifting the markets over the past few years.
Looks like that downtrend we were all anticipating hit. Most know I've been pretty freaked out about what might occur after the fat man came down the chimney. They held price up till Xma and now you see the results of artificial levitation. The market'sosition is very precarious for if she's beginning a three (in ewt terms) down you're looking at about a 200 point move south here and it is game over.
Minis Daily - I've been afraid of a perciptuous drop. Big Blue has cracked. The
SPX Daily - OK, first I noted the turn in the MACD Histogram. Then we waited for SPXA50 to hit 400. Qll the whille NYMO was setting a divergence. The 50/20 bear cross came and support finally gave way yesterday. Pretty basic stuff when looking for a turn. Of course that is the Cliff's Notes version and there was more to it, but bottom line is most here did a great job waiting and seeing the turn coming.
I doubt I will be around much unless the shit hits the fan next week. You will have posts.
Happy New Year!
GL and GB!
No time to bitch about the cliff this morning, but just like in similar situations in the past either nothing happens till the 11th hour or they don't get the job done. Most know it is all pointless and nothing more than political positioning. Bears can't forget the market is totally rigged. Bears can't forget that the market could react with glee to anything at any moment no mattter how bad. The more the shorts pile up from the extreme bullish position, the more dangerous it becomes to be on the short side. They love to slaughter the bears, and it has become one of their best strategies for lifting the markets over the past few years.
Looks like that downtrend we were all anticipating hit. Most know I've been pretty freaked out about what might occur after the fat man came down the chimney. They held price up till Xma and now you see the results of artificial levitation. The market'sosition is very precarious for if she's beginning a three (in ewt terms) down you're looking at about a 200 point move south here and it is game over.
Minis Daily - I've been afraid of a perciptuous drop. Big Blue has cracked. The
SPX Daily - OK, first I noted the turn in the MACD Histogram. Then we waited for SPXA50 to hit 400. Qll the whille NYMO was setting a divergence. The 50/20 bear cross came and support finally gave way yesterday. Pretty basic stuff when looking for a turn. Of course that is the Cliff's Notes version and there was more to it, but bottom line is most here did a great job waiting and seeing the turn coming.
I doubt I will be around much unless the shit hits the fan next week. You will have posts.
Happy New Year!
GL and GB!
Friday, December 28, 2012
Morning Charts 12/28/12 SPX /ES
Not much to say this morning. Just waiting on the other shoe to fall with everyone else while everyone is on holiday/vacation.
A quick read worth looking at if you need to get the proper perspective on where we're headed next year and to reaffirm there is no solution to the economic puke fest is Run-Time Error -2147418113: Catastrophic Failure. "The best that can even be hoped for now is some minor change in the rigging which may be heralded as “the fix to fix all fixes” but will be of little importance when considered in the light of day. I think the odds of any grand scheme that will honestly make a difference is equivalent to the value of a toe nail clipper when performing brain surgery." That about sums up everything I feel I need to say this morning.
SPX Daily - Yesterday the powers that be had another incredulous stick save. Cash barely held the 1420 level making a large spike thru all near term support. The chart wants to fall, but something is not letting it. Hmmmmm? STB will be watching the RSI14 and the 50 level there. The 25ma cracked and in the 50 level goes RSI will more than likely be on the way to bottom out and you know what that means for price.
Minis Daily - All the important points on a slightly cleaner chart than I usually present (cause it is not nearly as detailed). Big Blue is in a slightly different spot on this chart but close to the other I usually present.
Happy New Year!
GL and GB!
A quick read worth looking at if you need to get the proper perspective on where we're headed next year and to reaffirm there is no solution to the economic puke fest is Run-Time Error -2147418113: Catastrophic Failure. "The best that can even be hoped for now is some minor change in the rigging which may be heralded as “the fix to fix all fixes” but will be of little importance when considered in the light of day. I think the odds of any grand scheme that will honestly make a difference is equivalent to the value of a toe nail clipper when performing brain surgery." That about sums up everything I feel I need to say this morning.
SPX Daily - Yesterday the powers that be had another incredulous stick save. Cash barely held the 1420 level making a large spike thru all near term support. The chart wants to fall, but something is not letting it. Hmmmmm? STB will be watching the RSI14 and the 50 level there. The 25ma cracked and in the 50 level goes RSI will more than likely be on the way to bottom out and you know what that means for price.
Minis Daily - All the important points on a slightly cleaner chart than I usually present (cause it is not nearly as detailed). Big Blue is in a slightly different spot on this chart but close to the other I usually present.
Happy New Year!
GL and GB!
Thursday, December 27, 2012
Morning charts 12/27/12 SPX /ES
As for the claims report this morning, TD at ZH puts it best, "In fact, judging by the market response, nobody cares about BLS data anymore, period, with absolutely no response by the market following the Claims print." See the minis chart below for the dud reaction to the data report.
I enjoyed A Canadian Summarizes America's Collapse: "Everyone Takes, Nobody Makes, Money Is Free, And Money Is Worthless" and think the read is well worth a look.
SPX Daily - I updated this last night. The indicators look sick. If support gives here you are looking to at least the 200dma at 1389 if not as low as 1340 just for starters.
Minis trading very narrow. Don't take your eye off of them though as anything can happen in this algo/news driven crazy world we trade in at any moment. There is an open gap from roughly 1425 to 1428.5 that looms above all bears would like to see closed. I'm a bit unarmed as the home computer is not as well charted as the one you see every day. I'll have to chart up the minis here a bit better to get the diagonals back. We all should know the s/r numbers I report everyday by now.
Happy New Year!
GL and GB!
I enjoyed A Canadian Summarizes America's Collapse: "Everyone Takes, Nobody Makes, Money Is Free, And Money Is Worthless" and think the read is well worth a look.
SPX Daily - I updated this last night. The indicators look sick. If support gives here you are looking to at least the 200dma at 1389 if not as low as 1340 just for starters.
Minis trading very narrow. Don't take your eye off of them though as anything can happen in this algo/news driven crazy world we trade in at any moment. There is an open gap from roughly 1425 to 1428.5 that looms above all bears would like to see closed. I'm a bit unarmed as the home computer is not as well charted as the one you see every day. I'll have to chart up the minis here a bit better to get the diagonals back. We all should know the s/r numbers I report everyday by now.
Happy New Year!
GL and GB!
Wednesday, December 26, 2012
Morning Post 12/26/12 SPX /ES
I trust all here at STB had a wonderful Christmas holiday. This is an early post - I may add some more to it.
For a glimpse of our dark future I suggest you read Post-Hyperinflationary Zimbabwe Welcomes The Holidays With 80% Unemployment, Empty ATMs And Paralyzed Transport.
SPX Daily - Critical support points where blue and black meet. NYMO, SPXA50 and MACD histogram are all ready. If RSI14 can break that 25ma and the 50 line that will be a good clue more downside is in store. If not, RSI may want to run to the top. No telling what we're gonna get this week with the Fiscal Cliff front and center. I'd guess the news will be bad and Obummer will speak in his usual terms of mandates and power, thus reviving hopes that all will be well and the great backstop will always be there.
Happy New Year!
GL and GB!
For a glimpse of our dark future I suggest you read Post-Hyperinflationary Zimbabwe Welcomes The Holidays With 80% Unemployment, Empty ATMs And Paralyzed Transport.
SPX Daily - Critical support points where blue and black meet. NYMO, SPXA50 and MACD histogram are all ready. If RSI14 can break that 25ma and the 50 line that will be a good clue more downside is in store. If not, RSI may want to run to the top. No telling what we're gonna get this week with the Fiscal Cliff front and center. I'd guess the news will be bad and Obummer will speak in his usual terms of mandates and power, thus reviving hopes that all will be well and the great backstop will always be there.
Happy New Year!
GL and GB!
Monday, December 24, 2012
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to All!
No market stuff for me today. Celebrating with family and friends will continue, so STB will not be around (although a watchful eye will be on the action just in case). As noted I'm a bit freaked out of what may transpire between now and the end of the year or after the first.
Holiday discussions have demonstrated a bit more knowledge about the real reality from the formerly uninformed which is encouraging. I've remained sidelined and am not injecting my perspective or knowledge base into many conversations this year. I have launched a few irresistible snide and targeted barbs, but for the most part am letting everyone enjoy the season.
I wish all a very merry Christmas and holiday season. Enjoy it while you can I hate to say, as times they are a changin and with each passing year from here forward things unfortunately look like they will only deteriorate both on the economic and freedom fronts.
The one thing they can't ever take from us is our faith. Please remember the reason for the season. I'll share my favorite seasonal quote with you one last time this season,
“And the Grinch, with his Grinch-feet ice cold in the snow, stood puzzling and puzzling, how could it be so? It came without ribbons. It came without tags. It came without packages, boxes or bags. And he puzzled and puzzled 'till his puzzler was sore. Then the Grinch thought of something he hadn't before. What if Christmas, he thought, doesn't come from a store. What if Christmas, perhaps, means a little bit more.”
― Dr. Seuss, How the Grinch Stole Christmas
I sincerely hope Santa is good to each of you and yours. Thank you all for another great year on the blog. This place's success is made by each of you. I appreciate the sharing of the love and knowledge you each bring every day. To the lurkers, I would like to encourage you to come out and comment. I'm positive you have some wonderful things to share as well.
Chart of the day -
Merry Christmas and happy holidays!
GL and GB!
Holiday discussions have demonstrated a bit more knowledge about the real reality from the formerly uninformed which is encouraging. I've remained sidelined and am not injecting my perspective or knowledge base into many conversations this year. I have launched a few irresistible snide and targeted barbs, but for the most part am letting everyone enjoy the season.
I wish all a very merry Christmas and holiday season. Enjoy it while you can I hate to say, as times they are a changin and with each passing year from here forward things unfortunately look like they will only deteriorate both on the economic and freedom fronts.
The one thing they can't ever take from us is our faith. Please remember the reason for the season. I'll share my favorite seasonal quote with you one last time this season,
“And the Grinch, with his Grinch-feet ice cold in the snow, stood puzzling and puzzling, how could it be so? It came without ribbons. It came without tags. It came without packages, boxes or bags. And he puzzled and puzzled 'till his puzzler was sore. Then the Grinch thought of something he hadn't before. What if Christmas, he thought, doesn't come from a store. What if Christmas, perhaps, means a little bit more.”
― Dr. Seuss, How the Grinch Stole Christmas
I sincerely hope Santa is good to each of you and yours. Thank you all for another great year on the blog. This place's success is made by each of you. I appreciate the sharing of the love and knowledge you each bring every day. To the lurkers, I would like to encourage you to come out and comment. I'm positive you have some wonderful things to share as well.
Chart of the day -
Merry Christmas and happy holidays!
GL and GB!
Friday, December 21, 2012
Open Weekend Post 12/22-23/12
You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.
Well, we're still here. The world did not come to an end thank goodness. We still have a few hours to go at the time of me writing this post. If you are here tomorrow feel free to post away as normal.
Markets are in a very dangerous spot, and as you know I am pretty horrified as to what may transpire over the next two weeks when we get Christmas behind us and after the first of the year. I think were on the cusp of a pretty sizable move south.
And let's not forget the reason for the season -
"And there were in the same country shepherds abiding in the field, keeping watch over their flock by night. And lo, the angel of the Lord came upon them, and the glory of the Lord shone round about them: and they were sore afraid. And the angel said unto them, 'Fear not: for behold, I bring unto you good tidings of great joy, which shall be to all people. For unto you is born this day in the City of David a Savior, which is Christ the Lord. And this shall be a sign unto you; Ye shall find the babe wrapped in swaddling clothes, lying in a manger.' And suddenly there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host, praising God, and saying, 'Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men.'"
That's what Christmas is all about, Charlie Brown.
Have a great weekend.
Merry Christmas and happy holidays!
GL and GB!
Well, we're still here. The world did not come to an end thank goodness. We still have a few hours to go at the time of me writing this post. If you are here tomorrow feel free to post away as normal.
Markets are in a very dangerous spot, and as you know I am pretty horrified as to what may transpire over the next two weeks when we get Christmas behind us and after the first of the year. I think were on the cusp of a pretty sizable move south.
And let's not forget the reason for the season -
"And there were in the same country shepherds abiding in the field, keeping watch over their flock by night. And lo, the angel of the Lord came upon them, and the glory of the Lord shone round about them: and they were sore afraid. And the angel said unto them, 'Fear not: for behold, I bring unto you good tidings of great joy, which shall be to all people. For unto you is born this day in the City of David a Savior, which is Christ the Lord. And this shall be a sign unto you; Ye shall find the babe wrapped in swaddling clothes, lying in a manger.' And suddenly there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host, praising God, and saying, 'Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men.'"
That's what Christmas is all about, Charlie Brown.
Have a great weekend.
Merry Christmas and happy holidays!
GL and GB!
Morning Charts 12/21/12 SPX /ES
So far so good, we're all still here! The market tried to disappear last night, but it found it's way (well most the way) back from the flash fail as should be expected. What a surprise that was to see this morning. I told you, not till the 11th hour IF then will some sort of resolution come involving the cliff. It will happen in the dark of night and no telling what sort of shit they will pile on with it this time.
We all know that an event like the one this morning can only happen one way these days (especially after hours) since retail is DOA and the big cats run the show. They sent a signal. You need to think about GS and the banks as a mafia. The government has dues to pay so they can keep their doors open and get protection from the mob. If you don't pay, you get a warning shot or a broken leg or finger as a reminder who is in control. That's exactly what you saw last night.
We all know that an event like the one this morning can only happen one way these days (especially after hours) since retail is DOA and the big cats run the show. They sent a signal. You need to think about GS and the banks as a mafia. The government has dues to pay so they can keep their doors open and get protection from the mob. If you don't pay, you get a warning shot or a broken leg or finger as a reminder who is in control. That's exactly what you saw last night.
Thursday, December 20, 2012
Morning Charts 12/20/12 SPX /ES
Not gonna rage and rant again this morning. The distress, despair and disgust in general is overwhelming. We're definitely closer than ever to an "event" and crossing the line into 2013 scares the hell out of me. We've started down a path that has no exit. Our destiny has been set. It is now just a matter of time before all our excess and self absorption catch up to us. The Godlessness is ever apparent. We're lost and to find ourselves we must hit rock bottom, and that is where we are headed.
The minis are in a very peculiar place. I tried to briefly address this after the close yesterday. Try to keep up, cause this will be confusing. Price is at a junction of several patterns and support resistance areas the likes I have honestly never seen before. It appears technically that we're at the top of a point (in EWT terms a 2 of a 1 of a new bear market - I hate/despise EWT. I only use that terminology to describe where I think we are) where the last exit for possibly a decade is near. If not the top of a "2" then the Fed will drive one last tile for a higher high and that will be "the" top". Bottom line is we're VERY close to the end of this nightmare of rigged markets.
The minis are in a very peculiar place. I tried to briefly address this after the close yesterday. Try to keep up, cause this will be confusing. Price is at a junction of several patterns and support resistance areas the likes I have honestly never seen before. It appears technically that we're at the top of a point (in EWT terms a 2 of a 1 of a new bear market - I hate/despise EWT. I only use that terminology to describe where I think we are) where the last exit for possibly a decade is near. If not the top of a "2" then the Fed will drive one last tile for a higher high and that will be "the" top". Bottom line is we're VERY close to the end of this nightmare of rigged markets.
Wednesday, December 19, 2012
Morning Charts 12/19/12 SPX /ES
Running late this morning, sorry.
Minis Daily - Pretty basic stuff. Market falls cause it should and it rises for whatever reason available, good or bad. There is all sorts of resistance and overbought divergences are being set up at this time. We're in a blow off top ST at this time. I don't see how they can't push it to 1460 at least at this point. I tried to hold 1432. I really did not want that to break, but it has and now we're at 44 s/r. I'm looking at 1460 area to a double top at this time if they do not hold it here at the 1444 resistance at the LT double HnS green diagonal.
Minis Daily - Pretty basic stuff. Market falls cause it should and it rises for whatever reason available, good or bad. There is all sorts of resistance and overbought divergences are being set up at this time. We're in a blow off top ST at this time. I don't see how they can't push it to 1460 at least at this point. I tried to hold 1432. I really did not want that to break, but it has and now we're at 44 s/r. I'm looking at 1460 area to a double top at this time if they do not hold it here at the 1444 resistance at the LT double HnS green diagonal.
Tuesday, December 18, 2012
Morning Charts 12/18/12 SPX /ES
Kinda blank this morning with not much to say. Best I simply not go off ranting till after the fat man comes. Let's try and keep this civil and not worsen any mindsets going into the holiday shall we? Let's try and remember the reason for the season as best we can.
Minis Daily - Like the charts even matter at this stage, we'll cover the moves anyway and do our best to anticipate "their" next move. Back to 1432 this morning. Most know that this is the max number I was willing to give as a restracement off the move up from 1341. it held nicely the first go round with only a brief break to 38 before falling in line and halting this latest surge. This time we have one of two scenarios. Either a pretty double top is about to be set or "they" have loftier goals in mind for price. I added a yellow channel this morning.
Minis Daily - Like the charts even matter at this stage, we'll cover the moves anyway and do our best to anticipate "their" next move. Back to 1432 this morning. Most know that this is the max number I was willing to give as a restracement off the move up from 1341. it held nicely the first go round with only a brief break to 38 before falling in line and halting this latest surge. This time we have one of two scenarios. Either a pretty double top is about to be set or "they" have loftier goals in mind for price. I added a yellow channel this morning.
Monday, December 17, 2012
Morning Charts 12/17/12 SPX /ES
Ok, it hit me this weekend, no not the Christmas spirit, STB still struggling to get all jolly, but the proper quote to put it in context and what we (those not quite there) must do -
"Where do you think you're going? Nobody's leaving. Nobody's walking out on this fun, old-fashioned family Christmas. No, no. We're all in this together. This is a full-blown, four-alarm holiday emergency here. We're gonna press on, and we're gonna have the hap, hap, happiest Christmas since Bing Crosby tap-danced with Danny fucking Kaye. And when Santa squeezes his fat white ass down that chimney tonight, he's gonna find the jolliest bunch of assholes this side of the nuthouse."
Clark Grizwold, Christmas Vacation
Got it? Press on we shall, not only for the holiday season, but we'll need to take this attitude to the markets and right on thru the economic disaster we're living out. Economically speaking you have no other option really. Crawling in a cave and giving up your guns is not really an option now is it? So make a stand and do the best we can is exactly what we'll do.
I'll assume the Christmas week trading/vacation/low volume vacuum starts in earnest today. Very dangerous time of the bears as the bots take even more control of the board virtually dominating trade (even more than usual). On top of that you can add some sort of fictitious positive news flow on the fiscal cliff issue which may be lifting as well (if in spirit only).
Minis tell the story for the most part. On the daily chart below you can see the fall and rise we've been covering since September. Pretty basic tumble and retracement stuff with a battle occurring at the white support diagonal off the October '11 lows. Price is a bit now formless after the green wedge and yellow channel brakdown. This indicates indecisiveness which can be understood with the Fed promising to fuel the fires of hell even more (to the tune of $85b a month) and on the other hand we face the fiscal cliff and the "recovery" is not going as swimmingly as the tens of trillions spent should indicate.
Minis 30m - I'm tinkering with a new channel (blue) down and not sure if I can turn the busted green rising wedge in to a rising channel at this time or not. If that wedge did bust, the set up is for an even more dramatic move south here and now. If it turns into a channel, then price stagnates with slight upside potential. White support mentioned above is dominating price here.
Minis 5m - In a rather bearish development, the Boehner Cave Pop at the open last night was taken back rather quickly. Add this to the total lack of interest in the Fed's increasing QEterity promise, and I think Mr. Market is making a grave statement. Is hope finally fading? If so, it is a long overdue change IMHO.
SPX Daily - Sorry I keep bringing this chart out, but it really does a good job right now. SPXA50 almost made the 400 reversal point I was looking for last Wednesday. The MACDaddy histogram lowering into rising price was another thing I was looking closely at. Those two things combined with the blue wedge backtest, the upper BB, the 50 dma, the NYMO and the 1422 level all generated enough pressure to turn price late last week. Now again, if price moves as it should (thinking in "normal" market conditions) a massive move south should be in order here.
Does anyone else get the feeling they are trying to combat that massive move south here? And that their efforts are failing when the trickery they are using is beginning to lose its effects? They are doing all they can to support price here and all they can do is maintain. I suspect they do maintain till the fat guy comes down the chimney and then there is a good chance we may see some panic selling into year end.
I am actually a bit jollier than I let on above. I had to go all theatrical on you to set the mood for what I was trying to get across. Kinda like that grumpy Santa in Rudolph, he came around and so did I. Ho Ho Ho.
I plan on being here all week. I may be in and out, but here for the most part.
GL and GB!
"Where do you think you're going? Nobody's leaving. Nobody's walking out on this fun, old-fashioned family Christmas. No, no. We're all in this together. This is a full-blown, four-alarm holiday emergency here. We're gonna press on, and we're gonna have the hap, hap, happiest Christmas since Bing Crosby tap-danced with Danny fucking Kaye. And when Santa squeezes his fat white ass down that chimney tonight, he's gonna find the jolliest bunch of assholes this side of the nuthouse."
Clark Grizwold, Christmas Vacation
Got it? Press on we shall, not only for the holiday season, but we'll need to take this attitude to the markets and right on thru the economic disaster we're living out. Economically speaking you have no other option really. Crawling in a cave and giving up your guns is not really an option now is it? So make a stand and do the best we can is exactly what we'll do.
I'll assume the Christmas week trading/vacation/low volume vacuum starts in earnest today. Very dangerous time of the bears as the bots take even more control of the board virtually dominating trade (even more than usual). On top of that you can add some sort of fictitious positive news flow on the fiscal cliff issue which may be lifting as well (if in spirit only).
Minis tell the story for the most part. On the daily chart below you can see the fall and rise we've been covering since September. Pretty basic tumble and retracement stuff with a battle occurring at the white support diagonal off the October '11 lows. Price is a bit now formless after the green wedge and yellow channel brakdown. This indicates indecisiveness which can be understood with the Fed promising to fuel the fires of hell even more (to the tune of $85b a month) and on the other hand we face the fiscal cliff and the "recovery" is not going as swimmingly as the tens of trillions spent should indicate.
Minis 30m - I'm tinkering with a new channel (blue) down and not sure if I can turn the busted green rising wedge in to a rising channel at this time or not. If that wedge did bust, the set up is for an even more dramatic move south here and now. If it turns into a channel, then price stagnates with slight upside potential. White support mentioned above is dominating price here.
Minis 5m - In a rather bearish development, the Boehner Cave Pop at the open last night was taken back rather quickly. Add this to the total lack of interest in the Fed's increasing QEterity promise, and I think Mr. Market is making a grave statement. Is hope finally fading? If so, it is a long overdue change IMHO.
SPX Daily - Sorry I keep bringing this chart out, but it really does a good job right now. SPXA50 almost made the 400 reversal point I was looking for last Wednesday. The MACDaddy histogram lowering into rising price was another thing I was looking closely at. Those two things combined with the blue wedge backtest, the upper BB, the 50 dma, the NYMO and the 1422 level all generated enough pressure to turn price late last week. Now again, if price moves as it should (thinking in "normal" market conditions) a massive move south should be in order here.
Does anyone else get the feeling they are trying to combat that massive move south here? And that their efforts are failing when the trickery they are using is beginning to lose its effects? They are doing all they can to support price here and all they can do is maintain. I suspect they do maintain till the fat guy comes down the chimney and then there is a good chance we may see some panic selling into year end.
I am actually a bit jollier than I let on above. I had to go all theatrical on you to set the mood for what I was trying to get across. Kinda like that grumpy Santa in Rudolph, he came around and so did I. Ho Ho Ho.
I plan on being here all week. I may be in and out, but here for the most part.
GL and GB!
Friday, December 14, 2012
OPEN WEEKEND POST !@/!%_!^?!@
you know the drill< share the love and the knowledge>
told you my keyboard was screwed up> not sure if i got into sticky keys or what< but thie thing is typing what it wants and not what i want right now>
gl and gb!
told you my keyboard was screwed up> not sure if i got into sticky keys or what< but thie thing is typing what it wants and not what i want right now>
gl and gb!
Morning Charts 12/14/12 SPX /ES
Well, it's Friday. Today has the potential to really be a dull one with FC and holiday distractions. On the other hand there may be some real drama in store after QE4 was pissed all over by Mr. Market. Me thinks the winds of change are beginning to blow and the Fed's levitating magic may be finally running out of power. Like the Winter Warlock, Their evil powers will not last forever. Now let's just hope the Burgermeisters all die off sooner than later so we can get back to being free.
I think war watch needs to be lifted to an elevated status. I used to get so pumped with every advance on Israel, but I have learned that all in its own time. They will get their MENA destabilization and it will only occur when they are ready or need a distraction. I still contend the war is one of their last resorts and will only come after or during a market crash. the war will first serve as a distraction and second will be used to impose martial law over the continental USSA.
I think war watch needs to be lifted to an elevated status. I used to get so pumped with every advance on Israel, but I have learned that all in its own time. They will get their MENA destabilization and it will only occur when they are ready or need a distraction. I still contend the war is one of their last resorts and will only come after or during a market crash. the war will first serve as a distraction and second will be used to impose martial law over the continental USSA.
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Morning Charts 12/13/12 SPX /ES
Once again, STB is not feeling very Christmasy this morning. Just can't get there this year. Have you noticed how few people are wishing you a Merry Christmas or Happy Holidays on the street compare to the past? I have. Times are a changin and the social mood is not positive at all. We're bleeding out right now as a society. We're divided and siding up with our teams. This is all by plan I hope you realize and the government has us right where they want us.
OK we're thru FOMC and now this fiscal cliff thingy is hanging over our heads. Separating reality from fiction is the hard part here. What are they telling you the truth about and what is a lie? The readers here know not to listen to a word said by the talking heads or the politicians.
We all know that the math does not lie and no matter what they do to fix the multitude of problems, no real solutions are possible. We're simply too deep in debt and the entitlement state is out of control. You've heard it before - on $2t in income you can't afford a $3t spending habit, a soon to be $18t deficit and $122t in unfunded liabilities. Well, we can, but eliminating half the military budget, cutting government spending by half and appropriately taxing the corporations would decimate society as we know it.
OK we're thru FOMC and now this fiscal cliff thingy is hanging over our heads. Separating reality from fiction is the hard part here. What are they telling you the truth about and what is a lie? The readers here know not to listen to a word said by the talking heads or the politicians.
We all know that the math does not lie and no matter what they do to fix the multitude of problems, no real solutions are possible. We're simply too deep in debt and the entitlement state is out of control. You've heard it before - on $2t in income you can't afford a $3t spending habit, a soon to be $18t deficit and $122t in unfunded liabilities. Well, we can, but eliminating half the military budget, cutting government spending by half and appropriately taxing the corporations would decimate society as we know it.
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
Morning Charts 12/12/12 SPX /ES
Numerology day! 9 days till the 21st and 13 days till the fat guy comes down the chimney. Are you ready? Oh, and the FOMC meeting today is kinda a big deal.
So just how well is that global economic recovery going? Maybe Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008 will give you a hint. Oh, and in relation to the SPX - you tell me where reality exists and does not.
SPX - BDI Weekly -
So just how well is that global economic recovery going? Maybe Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008 will give you a hint. Oh, and in relation to the SPX - you tell me where reality exists and does not.
SPX - BDI Weekly -
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
Morning Charts 12/11/12 SPX /ES
About the most exciting thing I can come up with this morning is that tomorrow is 12/12/12. As for the markets and news, dead till the fiscal cliff is dealt with which will not be till the 11th and final hour if even then.
I refuse to write about the FC talks and issues cause that is a waste of my time and yours. In the end, just like in the past, they will do nothing to cut and increase spending. We've discussed the "math" for years now and the STB readers get it. They could balance the budget and that would still not make a dent in the debt issue. To put it (seasonally) our goose has been cooked for years now.
I could go into the currency wars with Bank of England Warns of Global Currency Wars, but that is no news as Mish says, "By the time central banks warn about something, the practice has likely been going on for years." I could cover the false flag to come in Syria and the planned MENA destabilization but that is redundant. HSBC money laundering hand slap? Like anyone is ever going to jail? If you want to know more about these just let me know below.
I refuse to write about the FC talks and issues cause that is a waste of my time and yours. In the end, just like in the past, they will do nothing to cut and increase spending. We've discussed the "math" for years now and the STB readers get it. They could balance the budget and that would still not make a dent in the debt issue. To put it (seasonally) our goose has been cooked for years now.
I could go into the currency wars with Bank of England Warns of Global Currency Wars, but that is no news as Mish says, "By the time central banks warn about something, the practice has likely been going on for years." I could cover the false flag to come in Syria and the planned MENA destabilization but that is redundant. HSBC money laundering hand slap? Like anyone is ever going to jail? If you want to know more about these just let me know below.
Monday, December 10, 2012
Morning Charts 12/10/12 SPX /ES
Ya ever been in a holding pattern waiting to land at JFK, LAX or ATL? Sucks right? Well that is where the markets are right now waiting to land after the fiscal cliff storm has cleared. It is impossible to see the runway right now and if the pilot knew what was happening in the control tower he'd just fly on by and go the the next country.
If the plane does not have enough fuel to make it to the 11th hour it better just move on to the next airport, cause this runway will not be clear till then. Just like the last three or four instances where the government tried to pull off a bi-partisan effort to actually come up with a budget where it failed miserably, they will fail again.
Actually I like the odds of a compete failure this time and the cliff being crossed. Lord knows a complete bust is about the only thing that will save this nation now from the robber barons. If we only had sense enough to let this thing go in '08 we'd truly be in a full blown recovery right now and not this POS lie fest they call a recovery.
If the plane does not have enough fuel to make it to the 11th hour it better just move on to the next airport, cause this runway will not be clear till then. Just like the last three or four instances where the government tried to pull off a bi-partisan effort to actually come up with a budget where it failed miserably, they will fail again.
Actually I like the odds of a compete failure this time and the cliff being crossed. Lord knows a complete bust is about the only thing that will save this nation now from the robber barons. If we only had sense enough to let this thing go in '08 we'd truly be in a full blown recovery right now and not this POS lie fest they call a recovery.
Friday, December 7, 2012
Open Weekend Post 12/08-09/12
You know the drill, share the love and knowledge.
I don't have much to share that has not been expressed over the past week or years for that matter.
Minis are basically tracking 1405 and have been for weeks now as this rising green wedge plays out. White support diag backtest off the Oct '11 lows is driving things here I suspect. I still see little hope for upside action and am becoming a bit more fearful of reality with each passing day.
I'll be searching for the Christmas spirit this weekend.
GL and GB!
I don't have much to share that has not been expressed over the past week or years for that matter.
Minis are basically tracking 1405 and have been for weeks now as this rising green wedge plays out. White support diag backtest off the Oct '11 lows is driving things here I suspect. I still see little hope for upside action and am becoming a bit more fearful of reality with each passing day.
I'll be searching for the Christmas spirit this weekend.
GL and GB!
Morning Charts 12/07/12 SPX /ES
WEEEEEEE! 14 points in three minutes. Totally awesome!
Price has been bouncing around Big Blue (upper market resistance diag off the '07 top) and white support diag off the October '11 lows for about two weeks now after channeling down (blue) off the top into this multiple support area near the round number 1400. The rising green wedge is a textbook retracement move (in any "normal" market. Support for this wedge broke earlier this week after it completed proper formation.
Price has been bouncing around Big Blue (upper market resistance diag off the '07 top) and white support diag off the October '11 lows for about two weeks now after channeling down (blue) off the top into this multiple support area near the round number 1400. The rising green wedge is a textbook retracement move (in any "normal" market. Support for this wedge broke earlier this week after it completed proper formation.
Thursday, December 6, 2012
Morning Charts 12/06/12 SPX /ES
It is default, there is no other way of putting it and Greece is finally there. We've been discussing the coming of this for years here at STB. If it took Greece this long to get to default, then how much longer will it take the global financial system to get there as predicted here at STB over three years ago. Do the math folks. It won't be long.
What happens surrounding the default is key. I suspect the "selective" part of this will damage the consumer side and barely scratch the TBTFs around the globe. What happens in the CDS markets is most important, but it appears those have been sterilized. Funny the lack of concern. I guess it does not really matter when something based in fiat loses its value, it had no value to begin with. Either way the central cog for money distribution (think laundering and mafia) in the EU will keep the power on another day.
As for yesterday's bizzarro market action, what can you say other than the markets are totally busted and manipulated. Maybe you should read Stop-Hunting Algotron In Charge As Equities End Small Green if you need a bit more explanation. AAPL and the Q's take it on the chin but the DOW and SPX come out unharmed? Really? Are you kidding me? One word, rigged, end of discussion.
Daily Index Comparison - The DOW and the SPX are getting MAJORintervention support over the past month. Painfully obvious.
What happens surrounding the default is key. I suspect the "selective" part of this will damage the consumer side and barely scratch the TBTFs around the globe. What happens in the CDS markets is most important, but it appears those have been sterilized. Funny the lack of concern. I guess it does not really matter when something based in fiat loses its value, it had no value to begin with. Either way the central cog for money distribution (think laundering and mafia) in the EU will keep the power on another day.
As for yesterday's bizzarro market action, what can you say other than the markets are totally busted and manipulated. Maybe you should read Stop-Hunting Algotron In Charge As Equities End Small Green if you need a bit more explanation. AAPL and the Q's take it on the chin but the DOW and SPX come out unharmed? Really? Are you kidding me? One word, rigged, end of discussion.
Daily Index Comparison - The DOW and the SPX are getting MAJOR
Wednesday, December 5, 2012
Morning Charts 12/05/12 SPX /ES
Since time is short this morning I'll be very brief -
It remains all about lies, stimulus, fiat and intervention.
The GOP may throw in the towel realizing that no matter how much they cut we're so far down the rabbit hole it would not matter anyway, so why endure the pain. They may just decide to hook up to O's party till we drop attitude. When there is only $20 left in the old account it is a bit late to start trying to fix the problems. Might as well go and get that last 5th and have a good time.
If you believe the ADP data or even think it credible, you should have your head examined. For that matter if you believe anything, you should be taken out back and given 50 lashes. Of course if you are like me the government now has reeducation centers where I can go and be taught to think properly (that is real not a joke).
12/21 is just days away now.
There is a big ass sinkhole in LA you need to know about.
Your government is totally out of control.
I can't find the Xmas spirit this year. Has anyone seen it?
It remains all about lies, stimulus, fiat and intervention.
The GOP may throw in the towel realizing that no matter how much they cut we're so far down the rabbit hole it would not matter anyway, so why endure the pain. They may just decide to hook up to O's party till we drop attitude. When there is only $20 left in the old account it is a bit late to start trying to fix the problems. Might as well go and get that last 5th and have a good time.
If you believe the ADP data or even think it credible, you should have your head examined. For that matter if you believe anything, you should be taken out back and given 50 lashes. Of course if you are like me the government now has reeducation centers where I can go and be taught to think properly (that is real not a joke).
12/21 is just days away now.
There is a big ass sinkhole in LA you need to know about.
Your government is totally out of control.
I can't find the Xmas spirit this year. Has anyone seen it?
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
Morning Charts 12/04/12 SPX /ES
It feels like a Friday for some reason. Maybe I just know that everyday is gonna be a wait and see event till the FC issue is put to bed. It is pretty clear to me that Congress will not solve anything and O will decree a final result via his powers. Well, that's what I am thinking at least. The markets are holding up in a manner where they know for now that the FC will be averted or if not it is immune to any economic pitfalls that may be a result of an FC failure.
That made no sense did it? How can the markets be immune to an FC failure leading to furthering the economic malaise? Cause the markets are RIGGED! Not till the catalyst that leads to my "event" that causes the Fed to lose control will this shitbin they call a market finally fail. And fail it will one day.
Elections here, austerity there, bailouts galore, fiat printing saving everything, they have only one strategy and that is to spend their way out of this mess. Apparently debt is no concern to the idiots running the asylum. IMO you need to understand that unless some new technology comes along that will drive employment and consumption we're dead in the water.
The problems with new technologies are that they are efficient, usually not labor intensive to produce and usually create efficiencies lowering labor usage as a result of their existence. Like I have said over the years, not until the minimum wage is lowered to a point we can put people back to work and be competitive again manufacturing will this financial crisis end.
The global ponzi is dead. Our duty in the global ponzi as the great consumer is dead. We must go backwards now and become competitive globally. Without jobs we can't move forward. We can't have jobs though cause this would be unfair to China and India and the like.
So there is our catch 22, China and the like were buying treasuries supporting our welfare state so we could buy all its lead laden trinkets made by slave labor. Now the Fed is having to soak up 90% of new issuance and China is a net seller of treasuries, but we still can't work cause it would be unfair to the rest of the world. We're not only supporting the welfare state here, but we've actually created an entitled planet that relies on our addiction to debt and shopping to support everything.
So the rest of the world bled us of our jobs, gave us money to buy their shit and now have stopped giving us money. The circle is broken and we're F'ing stupid enough to print, print, print to keep the cycle going after we've been left high and dry. Now we can't afford to make anything cause our labor cost is so out of balance with the rest of the globe. So, in the end we must lower our standards to get back in line with the rest of the world, and thus I say not till minimum wage is lowered will we ever be able to compete and put people back to work.
How much pain will that cause? How freaked out will the entitled state be? Shuh, its gonna be nasty when austerity hits the USSA.
Daily SPX - When the turn back in November happened other than oversold conditions the only real (IMO) signal was a change in the MACD histogram. Here we are again with the Hist having its first lower/higher candle. The other indicators appear to be pausing as well. The 50 dma and 1422 resistance in conjunction with a backtest of the busted blue wedge support are hindering price's advance here. The near term wedge is ending at the 61% retracement of the fall from the 1474 top. That is a lot of headwinds. Throw in some FC uncertainty combined with not so favorable economic data and projections and add the EU and MENA and the mix is not all that favorable. One thing I like to watch here is the SPXA50. I would like to see that hit the 400 level again, but that is not necessary.
Minis 60m - I covered the reversal point yesterday morning, now we hit first support. White diag of the October '11 lows is in play here with near term green support and just above big blue. Kind of a minis STB point right here at this intersection. They either stick save it here or things get worse again. I still hold 1432 as all I want to give to the upside. I am still bearish. I am still cautions to a move in either direction and contend this is a dangerous place to be playing one side or the other. The green NT wedge has completed and should breakdown here, but they could push it up one last time. Just be careful.
Have a good day.
GL and GB!
That made no sense did it? How can the markets be immune to an FC failure leading to furthering the economic malaise? Cause the markets are RIGGED! Not till the catalyst that leads to my "event" that causes the Fed to lose control will this shitbin they call a market finally fail. And fail it will one day.
Elections here, austerity there, bailouts galore, fiat printing saving everything, they have only one strategy and that is to spend their way out of this mess. Apparently debt is no concern to the idiots running the asylum. IMO you need to understand that unless some new technology comes along that will drive employment and consumption we're dead in the water.
The problems with new technologies are that they are efficient, usually not labor intensive to produce and usually create efficiencies lowering labor usage as a result of their existence. Like I have said over the years, not until the minimum wage is lowered to a point we can put people back to work and be competitive again manufacturing will this financial crisis end.
The global ponzi is dead. Our duty in the global ponzi as the great consumer is dead. We must go backwards now and become competitive globally. Without jobs we can't move forward. We can't have jobs though cause this would be unfair to China and India and the like.
So there is our catch 22, China and the like were buying treasuries supporting our welfare state so we could buy all its lead laden trinkets made by slave labor. Now the Fed is having to soak up 90% of new issuance and China is a net seller of treasuries, but we still can't work cause it would be unfair to the rest of the world. We're not only supporting the welfare state here, but we've actually created an entitled planet that relies on our addiction to debt and shopping to support everything.
So the rest of the world bled us of our jobs, gave us money to buy their shit and now have stopped giving us money. The circle is broken and we're F'ing stupid enough to print, print, print to keep the cycle going after we've been left high and dry. Now we can't afford to make anything cause our labor cost is so out of balance with the rest of the globe. So, in the end we must lower our standards to get back in line with the rest of the world, and thus I say not till minimum wage is lowered will we ever be able to compete and put people back to work.
How much pain will that cause? How freaked out will the entitled state be? Shuh, its gonna be nasty when austerity hits the USSA.
Daily SPX - When the turn back in November happened other than oversold conditions the only real (IMO) signal was a change in the MACD histogram. Here we are again with the Hist having its first lower/higher candle. The other indicators appear to be pausing as well. The 50 dma and 1422 resistance in conjunction with a backtest of the busted blue wedge support are hindering price's advance here. The near term wedge is ending at the 61% retracement of the fall from the 1474 top. That is a lot of headwinds. Throw in some FC uncertainty combined with not so favorable economic data and projections and add the EU and MENA and the mix is not all that favorable. One thing I like to watch here is the SPXA50. I would like to see that hit the 400 level again, but that is not necessary.
Minis 60m - I covered the reversal point yesterday morning, now we hit first support. White diag of the October '11 lows is in play here with near term green support and just above big blue. Kind of a minis STB point right here at this intersection. They either stick save it here or things get worse again. I still hold 1432 as all I want to give to the upside. I am still bearish. I am still cautions to a move in either direction and contend this is a dangerous place to be playing one side or the other. The green NT wedge has completed and should breakdown here, but they could push it up one last time. Just be careful.
Have a good day.
GL and GB!
Monday, December 3, 2012
Morning Charts 12/03/12 SPX /ES
Frustrating isn't it to be a realist grounded in fact and not being able to laud the markets prowess due to the Fed's eternal backstop? So here we sit with the so called fiscal cliff upon us, the Fed soaking up over 90% of new treasury issuance and the SPX is back over 1400. All is well folks. Buy, buy, buy! Go spend till that CC you have is maxed out and we'll send you another.
As for the fiscal cliff, just like the last three instances were called on this blog, an 11th hour solution is the only way anything happens in DC. They will BS and bicker posturing like peacocks all the while getting absolutely nowhere in the worlds greatest pissing match, until they have to. All investors can do is sit and wait.
What a sad scenario, to have the nation held hostage to a bunch of self serving special interest driven stooges. If you think they are fighting for you think again. They are playing the game waiting on the Fed to write the next big check nothing more. The saddest part of the whole scenario is our representatives are bleeding the country dry, basically committing assisted suicide, and they all believe they are doing a great job. Nothing happens, absolutely nothing till the 11th hour. And if you ran your business that way? Shuh right, you would be in the same boat as the government.
As for the fiscal cliff, just like the last three instances were called on this blog, an 11th hour solution is the only way anything happens in DC. They will BS and bicker posturing like peacocks all the while getting absolutely nowhere in the worlds greatest pissing match, until they have to. All investors can do is sit and wait.
What a sad scenario, to have the nation held hostage to a bunch of self serving special interest driven stooges. If you think they are fighting for you think again. They are playing the game waiting on the Fed to write the next big check nothing more. The saddest part of the whole scenario is our representatives are bleeding the country dry, basically committing assisted suicide, and they all believe they are doing a great job. Nothing happens, absolutely nothing till the 11th hour. And if you ran your business that way? Shuh right, you would be in the same boat as the government.
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