Happy New Year!

Quick post I may add to, not sure.

To cliff or not to cliff and how will they paper is over. Government runs out if money (again, again, again) tonight.

Charts say the cliff will be steep and deep (like what the STB's are skiing now).

Daily SPX - If this is a top, like I have been saying, the game is over, and the markets are heading towards a world of hurt.

And your usual New Years gift from me (for the 4th year now) -

Happy New Year!

GL and GB!

Open Weekend Post 12/29-30/12

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

No time to bitch about the cliff this morning, but just like in similar situations in the past either nothing happens till the 11th hour or they don't get the job done. Most know it is all pointless and nothing more than political positioning. Bears can't forget the market is totally rigged. Bears can't forget that the market could react with glee to anything at any moment no mattter how bad. The more the shorts pile up from the extreme bullish position, the more dangerous it becomes to be on the short side. They love to slaughter the bears, and it has become one of their best strategies for lifting the markets over the past few years.

Looks like that downtrend we were all anticipating hit. Most know I've been pretty freaked out about what might occur after the fat man came down the chimney. They held price up till Xma and now you see the results of artificial levitation. The market'sosition is very precarious for if she's beginning a three (in ewt terms) down you're looking at about a 200 point move south here and it is game over.

Minis Daily - I've been afraid of a perciptuous drop. Big Blue has cracked. The

SPX Daily - OK, first I noted the turn in the MACD Histogram. Then we waited for SPXA50 to hit 400. Qll the whille NYMO was setting a divergence. The 50/20 bear cross came and support finally gave way yesterday. Pretty basic stuff when looking for a turn. Of course that is the Cliff's Notes version and there was more to it, but bottom line is most here did a great job waiting and seeing the turn coming.

I doubt I will be around much unless the shit hits the fan next week. You will have posts.

Happy New Year!


GL and GB!

Morning Charts 12/28/12 SPX /ES

Not much to say this morning. Just waiting on the other shoe to fall with everyone else while everyone is on holiday/vacation.

A quick read worth looking at if you need to get the proper perspective on where we're headed next year and to reaffirm there is no solution to the economic puke fest  is Run-Time Error -2147418113: Catastrophic Failure. "The best that can even be hoped for now is some minor change in the rigging which may be heralded as “the fix to fix all fixes” but will be of little importance when considered in the light of day. I think the odds of any grand scheme that will honestly make a difference is equivalent to the value of a toe nail clipper when performing brain surgery." That about sums up everything I feel I need to say this morning.

SPX Daily - Yesterday the powers that be had another incredulous stick save. Cash barely held the 1420 level making a large spike thru all near term support. The chart wants to fall, but something is not letting it. Hmmmmm? STB will be watching the RSI14 and the 50 level there. The 25ma cracked and in the 50 level goes RSI will more than likely be on the way to bottom out and you know what that means for price.

Minis Daily - All the important points on a slightly cleaner chart than I usually present (cause it is not nearly as detailed). Big Blue is in a slightly different spot on this chart but close to the other I usually present.

Happy New Year!

GL and GB!

Morning charts 12/27/12 SPX /ES

As for the claims report this morning, TD at ZH puts it best, "In fact, judging by the market response, nobody cares about BLS data anymore, period, with absolutely no response by the market following the Claims print." See the minis chart below for the dud reaction to the data report.

I enjoyed A Canadian Summarizes America's Collapse: "Everyone Takes, Nobody Makes, Money Is Free, And Money Is Worthless" and think the read is well worth a look.

SPX Daily - I updated this last night. The indicators look sick. If support gives here you are looking to at least the 200dma at 1389 if not as low as 1340 just for starters.

Minis trading very narrow. Don't take your eye off of them though as anything can happen in this algo/news driven crazy world we trade in at any moment. There is an open gap from roughly 1425 to 1428.5 that looms above all bears would like to see closed. I'm a bit unarmed as the home computer is not as well charted as the one you see every day. I'll have to chart up the minis here a bit better to get the diagonals back. We all should know the s/r numbers I report everyday by now.

Happy New Year!

GL and GB!

Morning Post 12/26/12 SPX /ES

I trust all here at STB had a wonderful Christmas holiday. This is an early post - I may add some more to it.

For a glimpse of our dark future I suggest you read Post-Hyperinflationary Zimbabwe Welcomes The Holidays With 80% Unemployment, Empty ATMs And Paralyzed Transport.

SPX Daily - Critical support points where blue and black meet. NYMO, SPXA50 and MACD histogram are all ready. If RSI14 can break that 25ma and the 50 line that will be a good clue more downside is in store. If not, RSI may want to run to the top. No telling what we're gonna get this week with the Fiscal Cliff front and center. I'd guess the news will be bad and Obummer will speak in  his usual terms of mandates and power, thus reviving hopes that all will be well and the great backstop will always be there.

Happy New Year!

GL and GB!

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to All!

No market stuff for me today. Celebrating with family and friends will continue, so STB will not be around (although a watchful eye will be on the action just in case). As noted I'm a bit freaked out of what may transpire between now and the end of the year or after the first.

Holiday discussions have demonstrated a bit more knowledge about the real reality from the formerly uninformed which is encouraging. I've remained sidelined and am not injecting my perspective or knowledge base into many conversations this year. I have launched a few irresistible snide and targeted barbs, but for the most part am letting everyone enjoy the season.

I wish all a very merry Christmas and holiday season. Enjoy it while you can I hate to say, as times they are a changin and with each passing year from here forward things unfortunately look like they will only deteriorate both on the economic and freedom fronts.

The one thing they can't ever take from us is our faith. Please remember the reason for the season. I'll share my favorite seasonal quote with you one last time this season,


“And the Grinch, with his Grinch-feet ice cold in the snow, stood puzzling and puzzling, how could it be so? It came without ribbons. It came without tags. It came without packages, boxes or bags. And he puzzled and puzzled 'till his puzzler was sore. Then the Grinch thought of something he hadn't before. What if Christmas, he thought, doesn't come from a store. What if Christmas, perhaps, means a little bit more.”

― Dr. Seuss, How the Grinch Stole Christmas


I sincerely hope Santa is good to each of you and yours. Thank you all for another great year on the blog. This place's success is made by each of you. I appreciate the sharing of the love and knowledge you each bring every day. To the lurkers, I would like to encourage you to come out and comment. I'm positive you have some wonderful things to share as well.

Chart of the day -

Merry Christmas and happy holidays!

GL and GB!

Open Weekend Post 12/22-23/12

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

Well, we're still here. The world did not come to an end thank goodness. We still have a few hours to go at the time of me writing this post. If you are here tomorrow feel free to post away as normal.

Markets are in a very dangerous spot, and as you know I am pretty horrified as to what may transpire over the next two weeks when we get Christmas behind us and after the first of the year. I think were on the cusp of a pretty sizable move south.

And let's not forget the reason for the season -

"And there were in the same country shepherds abiding in the field, keeping watch over their flock by night. And lo, the angel of the Lord came upon them, and the glory of the Lord shone round about them: and they were sore afraid. And the angel said unto them, 'Fear not: for behold, I bring unto you good tidings of great joy, which shall be to all people. For unto you is born this day in the City of David a Savior, which is Christ the Lord. And this shall be a sign unto you; Ye shall find the babe wrapped in swaddling clothes, lying in a manger.' And suddenly there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host, praising God, and saying, 'Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men.'"

That's what Christmas is all about, Charlie Brown.


Have a great weekend.

Merry Christmas and happy holidays!

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 12/21/12 SPX /ES

So far so good, we're all still here! The market tried to disappear last night, but it found it's way (well most the way) back from the flash fail as should be expected. What a surprise that was to see this morning. I told you, not till the 11th hour IF then will some sort of resolution come involving the cliff. It will happen in the dark of night and no telling what sort of shit they will pile on with it this time.

We all know that an event like the one this morning can only happen one way these days (especially after hours) since retail is DOA and the big cats run the show. They sent a signal. You need to think about GS and the banks as a mafia. The government has dues to pay so they can keep their doors open and get protection from the mob. If you don't pay, you get a warning shot or a broken leg or finger as a reminder who is in control. That's exactly what you saw last night.