Feeling better, thanks for all the kind words. Morning posts are gonna become a brunch post over the summer as I have found that I like sleeping in since I do not have to get the kids to school. So, I'll do what I can about getting a post up before the bell, but it will be difficult till September. I'm still at work and up and trading, but I don't have the extra time to put the post together cause I have to get ready to trade. Once I get settled in and start seeing things I'll post. This may actually be better for you as a reader and trader.
Next - I'm gonna be gone to Alaska and Canada for a couple of weeks starting Monday. Cruise with the family. I'll have to get a feel for what I'll be able to do on the blog from the great white north. I'll be trading and working in the wee early hours out there, but I'm not gonna be posting from Denali. Then back home for a bit then to Colorado for the week of the 4th. Then throw in a few more trips to the beach (if it is not destroyed by the oil spill). LOL, I was looking at my historical hits on the blog and could not figure why they dropped so badly last summer. I'm starting to remember why now.
Bottom line is, I do not blog for a living. I don't blog to make money. I blog to help others learn and to spread what I believe is the truth. Many thanks to the many donors I have (especially you ODA - who has still not been properly thanked for the last generous donation). I love to blog and am very grateful for the community I have built and the many that I have helped. I do however trade and manage money for a living, so I will still be fully engaged with the markets (my chartbook may suffer some as well - It is being restructured right now), but the blog may suffer some but not much. You are just gonna have to deal with my sporaticness for a few months. When the kids get back in school things will return to normal.
Again, I am not disappearing or going away. I plan on continuing to make the exceptional market calls you all are so used to, I will just be not posting as frequently or with the clockwork like precision you are accustomed to. I still plan on doing at least one post a day. Never hesitate to send an email if you have questions or want a post on something. Thanks for your understanding. I plan on enjoying this summer as this may be one of the last that we'll be able to enjoy for quite some time.
Thanks again and GL out there.
Thursday, June 3, 2010
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Shanky Is Sick
Sorry for no posts today. I am out of commission. Watching the market today will make a sick bear feel even worse. I knew a turn was coming. When the upper wedge line on SPX was taken out, I knew it would get ugly for the bears. Friggin manipulated BS is all it is. You, as a bear or shortie, have to be ready for days like these. I have pointed to the resistance lines on RSI for over a week now as they would possibly signal a bottom for this move down being in. Here is the chart. RSI14 took out the TL today RSI5 backested it's TL and has popped. Now look for RSI 14 to move to the 50 line, then we regroup. I may do a more detailed post tonight. IMO there were few signs that this turn was coming that I could see. Mu 1106 to 1110 to gap fill target is in play still and I'll warn it could get worse (not that it deserves to). Again, sorry for being out today.
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
It Just Takes A Little Push These Days
Well, my Morning Post did really well I think. SPX rallied back to backtest the wedge and then the BP and Israeli news hit the airwaves. So the government is actually contemplating prosecuting someone for the BP incident? Friggin amazing! 47 days and millions of gallons later they finally got around to appearing to get something done. Of course we all know it is only hot air being spewed and that nothing will come from it, but they at least sound tough. Speaking of prosecution, why don't they take a swing at Bernanke and Co.? I guess you don't fuck with mother nature but you can fuck it's inhabitants all you want?
Just how bad can it get? Well folks, this puppy is just getting cranked up. oil spills, earthquakes, volcanoes, potential war and a slight global financial problem are just a few of the offerings here at the Armageddon Cafe. All that and the DOW is still trading above 10,000 (barely). We must have the most resilient market on the planet! God love the USA! Prechter did a post that can be found here on ZH - Robert Prechter's Glimpse Of The Apocalypse To Come that takes doom and gloom to a new level. Some of this stuff is so over the top that you gotta wonder what goes thru this guys head when he's in the shower. I agree with a lot of his assumptions, you'll be able to pick out the stuff that is a bit far fetched even for me.
I think this Israeli stuff will get out of hand. They are like a drunk midget, 10 feet tall and bullet proof - with nukes! So they are all bowed up over there in the Middle East.flexing their muscles like some WWE superstar. Sadly, this is not a game. Strutting peacocks get blown away. My thought are if they are shooting for fun and show, then it is only a matter of time before someone gets really pissed and BAM its on. Then we gotta get involved cause that's what we do and we're not capable of staying out of any confrontation. So, if the Israeli planes are under fire over Lebanon, then the seeds are being sewn for WWIII.We all know that every one of these recessions/depressions has ended with a war. It is only a matter of time. Let's just hope that this is not the LAST war.
Confused about Gold? Up, down, retracement, 5,000 or even 10,000 an ounce as some are prognosticating? I sure as hell am. You know why? You are on one side or the other. The typical exchange goes something like this. GG posts Mr. Denninger and Gold or Why the Dollar-Deflationists Are Wrong on ZH and the Denninger responds with Listen To The Hucksters, Lose Your Ass. Two pretty good arguments that deserve your attention. My thoughts are that we have a massive deflationary period and then go gangbusters int hyperinflation. I think you need to own a chunk of physical. I also like silver. Jesse's Cafe has this nice post on the cup and handle he's seeing in the shiny metal - Gold Daily Chart: The Handle Forms, a Reader's Questions, and Felix Zulauf on Gold. My favorite line, "The greatest negative is the possibility of a market meltdown in which everything is sold, at least temporarily." which has been my call all along. My word of caution, try selling it to someone at the top near Rosie's 10k guess. Good Luck. At that point it will be nothing more than an expensive rock and my seeds and ammo will trump your gold.
Things all around are tensing up more and more every day. That third of a third all the EWTers are looking for may be just around the corner. It sure got impulsive going into the close today. One thing is for sure is that the market is now beginning to react to the bad news and not shrugging it off anymore. With all the troubles, I'm not sure how upside potential is possible at this point, yet the V shaped recovery morons are still spewing their venom. I don't care what the BLS juiced up manufacturing report says or how good the census induced jobs numbers say later this week, we're screwed. It may not be this week or next, hell, given the Fed's proven potential it may not be till next year, but I promise this puppy will one day make the flash crash look like child's play.
GL!
Just how bad can it get? Well folks, this puppy is just getting cranked up. oil spills, earthquakes, volcanoes, potential war and a slight global financial problem are just a few of the offerings here at the Armageddon Cafe. All that and the DOW is still trading above 10,000 (barely). We must have the most resilient market on the planet! God love the USA! Prechter did a post that can be found here on ZH - Robert Prechter's Glimpse Of The Apocalypse To Come that takes doom and gloom to a new level. Some of this stuff is so over the top that you gotta wonder what goes thru this guys head when he's in the shower. I agree with a lot of his assumptions, you'll be able to pick out the stuff that is a bit far fetched even for me.
I think this Israeli stuff will get out of hand. They are like a drunk midget, 10 feet tall and bullet proof - with nukes! So they are all bowed up over there in the Middle East.flexing their muscles like some WWE superstar. Sadly, this is not a game. Strutting peacocks get blown away. My thought are if they are shooting for fun and show, then it is only a matter of time before someone gets really pissed and BAM its on. Then we gotta get involved cause that's what we do and we're not capable of staying out of any confrontation. So, if the Israeli planes are under fire over Lebanon, then the seeds are being sewn for WWIII.We all know that every one of these recessions/depressions has ended with a war. It is only a matter of time. Let's just hope that this is not the LAST war.
Confused about Gold? Up, down, retracement, 5,000 or even 10,000 an ounce as some are prognosticating? I sure as hell am. You know why? You are on one side or the other. The typical exchange goes something like this. GG posts Mr. Denninger and Gold or Why the Dollar-Deflationists Are Wrong on ZH and the Denninger responds with Listen To The Hucksters, Lose Your Ass. Two pretty good arguments that deserve your attention. My thoughts are that we have a massive deflationary period and then go gangbusters int hyperinflation. I think you need to own a chunk of physical. I also like silver. Jesse's Cafe has this nice post on the cup and handle he's seeing in the shiny metal - Gold Daily Chart: The Handle Forms, a Reader's Questions, and Felix Zulauf on Gold. My favorite line, "The greatest negative is the possibility of a market meltdown in which everything is sold, at least temporarily." which has been my call all along. My word of caution, try selling it to someone at the top near Rosie's 10k guess. Good Luck. At that point it will be nothing more than an expensive rock and my seeds and ammo will trump your gold.
Things all around are tensing up more and more every day. That third of a third all the EWTers are looking for may be just around the corner. It sure got impulsive going into the close today. One thing is for sure is that the market is now beginning to react to the bad news and not shrugging it off anymore. With all the troubles, I'm not sure how upside potential is possible at this point, yet the V shaped recovery morons are still spewing their venom. I don't care what the BLS juiced up manufacturing report says or how good the census induced jobs numbers say later this week, we're screwed. It may not be this week or next, hell, given the Fed's proven potential it may not be till next year, but I promise this puppy will one day make the flash crash look like child's play.
GL!
Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini
Running late today, sorry. Hope everyone had a great Memorial Day weekend.
So, why are the futures down 15? Fat Fingered Flash Crash, Japan Edition: Nikkei Plunge Blamed On Erroneous Sell Orders, As Panic Selling Just Does Not Exist would give you the best answer I can come up with this morning. Apparently no one cares that the global financial system is collapsing under a mountain of systemic risk and sheer weight of the liquidity pumped into the system. Oops, I failed to mention the slow death of the carry trade as well.
Economic Calendar - ISM and Construction Spending both at 10:00
Pivot Points - Know 'em.
After the plunge the minis have actually recovered 5 points and have showed little volatility. Still trading under the VWAP with the 30m and 60m chart that bottoming. Might bounce at the open to 86, but I think that will be it.
We have to see what happens after this most recent wedge/corrective breaks down this morning. How it let's go will give us clues if this will be the third of a third that everyone has been waiting on or just another leg in the corrective. I'm cautiously thinking down from here. What I don't like is how oversold everything is. Technicals all over the place need to be abused to destroy some of the buy signals I'm seeing. That is what 3rd waves do. With it all being so manipulated, that adds to the difficulty of the call. That said, let's digest what happens after the open. The wedge will crack. Will it want to backtest? Will it just tank? At this point we're looking for a lower low that 1040. If we get that look out.
I'll be back later with some more detail. Sorry this post was not any better, but wait and see the form of the fall is the name of the game. With the manipulation and the oversold conditions, I would not be surprised to see this market put a head fake on everyone here. Yet, with the global situation it could just keel on over and die. Catalysts exist everywhere. Why this market is not totally void of investors right now is beyond me. (well- not really - you see the fund managers have to have you invested or they do not get paid - so there will always be a select group of individuals foolishly investing your money.)
GL this week! I promise more and better post later on. Let me add this, patience is the name of the game here. Being impulsive investing in what you think may be a trend will get you killed. The market is in a bear market corrective. It will fall a lot more, but when is the question. Let it come to you . Do not force the issue.
So, why are the futures down 15? Fat Fingered Flash Crash, Japan Edition: Nikkei Plunge Blamed On Erroneous Sell Orders, As Panic Selling Just Does Not Exist would give you the best answer I can come up with this morning. Apparently no one cares that the global financial system is collapsing under a mountain of systemic risk and sheer weight of the liquidity pumped into the system. Oops, I failed to mention the slow death of the carry trade as well.
Economic Calendar - ISM and Construction Spending both at 10:00
Pivot Points - Know 'em.
After the plunge the minis have actually recovered 5 points and have showed little volatility. Still trading under the VWAP with the 30m and 60m chart that bottoming. Might bounce at the open to 86, but I think that will be it.
We have to see what happens after this most recent wedge/corrective breaks down this morning. How it let's go will give us clues if this will be the third of a third that everyone has been waiting on or just another leg in the corrective. I'm cautiously thinking down from here. What I don't like is how oversold everything is. Technicals all over the place need to be abused to destroy some of the buy signals I'm seeing. That is what 3rd waves do. With it all being so manipulated, that adds to the difficulty of the call. That said, let's digest what happens after the open. The wedge will crack. Will it want to backtest? Will it just tank? At this point we're looking for a lower low that 1040. If we get that look out.
I'll be back later with some more detail. Sorry this post was not any better, but wait and see the form of the fall is the name of the game. With the manipulation and the oversold conditions, I would not be surprised to see this market put a head fake on everyone here. Yet, with the global situation it could just keel on over and die. Catalysts exist everywhere. Why this market is not totally void of investors right now is beyond me. (well- not really - you see the fund managers have to have you invested or they do not get paid - so there will always be a select group of individuals foolishly investing your money.)
GL this week! I promise more and better post later on. Let me add this, patience is the name of the game here. Being impulsive investing in what you think may be a trend will get you killed. The market is in a bear market corrective. It will fall a lot more, but when is the question. Let it come to you . Do not force the issue.
Monday, May 31, 2010
Minis Down 7
At this time as Asia markets are under pressure. I'll update if things begin to get out of hand. Not sure how it is not worse given total global turmoil building with ECU, Korea, Pakistan, the PIIGS, Israel and Iran. Wait a minute, I know why it is not worse, cause it is a friggin rigged market. LOL, stupid me.
Friday, May 28, 2010
SPX Today
Blogger screwed up the layout on this post sorry.
Is that the wedge cracking?
Backed out some. The red wedge ending in the larger blue wedge for a D point may be the ticket. Thus I still like the fall to 1020 to 1000 which would require a throw under of my lower blue TL.
Is that the wedge cracking?
Backed out some. The red wedge ending in the larger blue wedge for a D point may be the ticket. Thus I still like the fall to 1020 to 1000 which would require a throw under of my lower blue TL. 
Long RUT Channel
To the old timers from K's blog this is the definition of the GSEC. LOL! Price did close below the channel before retracing back into it. Usually a close below indicates a further break to come. It is possible that the sky blue line will become the upper TL for the P3 wave down. That is a long broad slope if it is. The concerns to the shorties on this chart are A) price is back in the channel and B) those indicators are oversold. By no means do I think it could possibly go back to the top. I'm betting that the sky blue line holds for at least a year if not longer.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)