$DJUSFN Triangle

If that yellow TL support goes, 296 is the first target (lower BB, 50% retracement and orange support line). Of course this is most likely a short set up to execute a few more bears. I am not long anything here. What is most interesting to me about this chart is in that big pink circle. These things don't always come true, but when they do it is cool. That is an intersection of the blue bull corrective's upper resistance line, the apex of the triangle and the February support line. These things can be like magnets and cause significant market moves. So, if it breaks down (somehow below the yellow support line), could it possibly backtest at that point and then head south? Interesting thought.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Good morning. I hope you had a great weekend. Welcome to another melt-up Monday where the only thing that goes down is ..... well, I'll keep those thoughts to myself.

Economic Calendar - Nothing but auctions today. FOMC meeting begins and consumer confidence tomorrow.

Earnings Calendar - Lots on the list. No real market movers though. F before the open tomorrow.

Pivot Points - Know 'em.

Well, my last few posts have had the RUT's wedge, the minis wedge and the SPX wedge. You know what I'm thinking. Sorry, I can't turn the corner and run with the bulls just yet. I remind you that I have been on the buy side for quite some time (since April of last year I believe). I am by no means saying sell here, but am cautioning against a potential topping scenario. Do not sell the longs, but make sure you have an exit plan in place and those trailing stop orders at the right price. Sure, this market can go up forever, but it should have some sort of viable correction, and I think that it is coming sooner than later. Sure, at this time I'm pretty positive that I am the 1 in 100 that thinks down, but if you remember correctly I was also at one time that 1 in 100 that kept on betting to the upside.

SPX 30m - Give me a little RSI divergence and a MACDaddy cross and we should be headed back to the lower blue support line near 1200 soon.

SPX Daily - At the upper TL again a little over 4 points from the upper BB. The divergence in RSI I do not think can be ignored. The BB 20ma has been holding support during this phase. Keep an eye on that. I believe it has a chance to crack on this next correction (when and if that ever occurs). No comment on MACD's actions or the other embedded indicators.

Keep an eye on that 30m chart and the 60m as well. We're headed towards another perfect storm later today when the weekly, daily, 60 and 30m will all be overbought at the same time. Will there be a catalyst? I have no idea. the world seems pretty happy with the impending Iran/Israel war, the N and S Korea boat sinking, the issues with the PIIGS and the potential Greece default/bankruptcy/bailout and our unemployment/credit/everything situation. So, with all that good news, I'm not sure what could bring the market down.

GL out there!

Eminis Tonight

Sorry that I keep bringing you these same charts, but I have to say that I think they really point to a top or some sort of correction (meaningful or not).

Daily the whole run - You clearly see the wedge I have been calling in yellow. The two correctives in sky blue and the final thrust from February in the green wedge overthrowing the bull correction's top TL right now.

Same daily chart that is drilled down to catch just this year- The extended overbought indicators tell a story, but I think the severe divergence in the RSI tells of some sort of turn coming. The overthrow of the yellow top resistance line and the extreme move from February lows needs some sort of breather/profit taking. IMO this is the suckers rally blow off top.

E-mini 60m chart drilled down - here you can see the interaction with the trendlines. The market (at least at this time) is struggling to stay above the yellow bull run upper resistance line. The backtest of the green wedge last Wednesday and the apparent one to come in the morning combined with the larger swings might mean the action is telling us something is brewing. The danger to the bears is that resistance becomes support. The danger to the bulls is the severe over bought conditions on the daily and weekly charts.

I'm not calling top or saying top, I'm saying potential worthwhile correction that could be the top though. First it has to be proven that the market can be turned to some degree. Then it has to be proven that sellers actually still exist. Then it has to be proven the bots and front runners that are supplied by and endless flow of cash from the fed can somehow be overwhelmed by the revolutionaries that want to sell. One thing is for sure, when the selling starts and with the fresh memories of the last fall, not many will want to hang around for the carnage again. Can they keep the market afloat till the election? Will one faction want the market to collapse so the other will lose power? How the story will play out no one knows, but I promise you this, when it ends it will not be pretty.

GL this week.

Weekly SPX chart

Here is the Weekly SPX chart. The gap was closed today and where I calculate C=A was met as well. That just leaves the 200ma at 1224 and the 61.8 at 1228. The A-E wedge should be complete. Wedges can throwover, and I would expect this one to as well (it is already on certain chart platforms - yes they actually differ and I use three). Given the extended overbought daily chart producing divergences that only the Fed would ignore, I have to stick with this formation as signaling the end soon. I believe that the move off of the February lows near 1050 is the blow off top suckers run (If it isn't LOL who is the joke gonna be on?).

I have preached manipulation for over a year now. I was one of the first and still believe it is in full force. As long as there is no regulation and the carry trade is alive and well, nothing will stop this market. The fraud is extensive. If it does not turn soon, the "external event" that I have been calling for will eventually occur and rip the power away from the manipulators. Can they run this sucker flat into the elections in November? Sure! They can run it back to 1500 if they want (and they will try I'm sure).

I did really well ignoring all the falls, not calling any tops and actually calling for the larger pullback to reset the lower trendline to allow the wedge more room to run (I think I was the only one to do that). The only other option if this should fail would be a channel up that I have not presented cause this is the formation I believed in. I'm sticking with it for now. If the channel should be the play, then we adjust and move on.

If this is right, look out. My basic thoughts for a fall are a quick move for the first wave to stop at the backtest of the upper bear market trendline. then the corrective (possibly into the election) and then it lets go late this year or early next cause it will take a powerful move to drive back thru the support of the bear market TL. Here is my target chart for the first leg down (1 of 1 of P3).

I am not calling a top here. We got ramp up Monday just ahead and earnings season (not to mention the rampant fraud again) still upon us. I have also always stated that the break of the trendline supporting RSI on that weekly chart would confirm the top. That looks like it is a ways away. I have also consistently called for my "external event" to rip the market from "their" control. That may happen sooner than later if this weekly chart is right. I have no idea if the bears can mount a charge. Volume is a necessity. The bots can't trade with each other forever, can they?

Thanks for your support and have a great weekend.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Minis up 4.5 after Greece formally begins begging for money and MSFT and AMZN disappoint. Gee, I thought futures would be up much more on such good news. I remember the day when an MSFT AMZN disappoint combo would have sent flairs in the air and had futures down 10. My how things have changed.


Earnings Calendar - Still busy with a few more big names to come next week. Nothing surprising before the bell Monday.

Economic Calendar - Durable goods did not budge the minis. New Home sales at 10:00.

Pivot Points -

Minis backtesting the breakdown thru the support line from the February lows and testing the upper resistance line of the large bull market corrective with overbought daily indicators. The 30m may be ready to roll over at this time or before lunch. Look for a retrace to the VWAP near 97. The lowest possible move would be to 86 with what I see as a ceiling near 1210 (at least till the standard ramp job on Monday).

SPX 60m - The dailys have created some room below the upper BB (1219) to run if they want. The problem is with the magnatisim of the upper bull market's resistance line which resides at 1207 right now and the backtest of the February support line which is at 1212 now and (yes one more) the backtest of the March support line which is at 1213 now. That leads to the big question of what happens with this triangle? Well, these act more like springboards to higher highs and since the market cant crack the daily BB 20ma, I guess that is where it may want to go. Here is the deal. If this triangle is to force the change in trend it will be THE change in trend and a major corrective will be in order. The divergences on the daily chart are impressive and if (somehow with many miracles assisting) the down trending indicators on this chart could hold here they may be enough to start the corrective.

With the VIX being thrown under the bus again, all this seriously choppy action and hte many support and resistance lines mentioned, I am speculating this is about it for the bull run. I am not sating a top is in. I am saying that technically the market should struggle to attain any serious move north from here. I would go as far to say that if the triangle were to break out, that move will produce a top within a week or two if the top is not in.

Enjoy your weekend and thanks for your views and support!

The Morally Bankrupt vs. The Bankrupt

In this game no one wins. Eventually the morally bankrupt (government, treasury, fed, wall st. big business and the banksters) will Ponzi the system into oblivion (Madoff is a small but good example - whistle blowers called it and the SEC or regulators ignored it till it was to late), and there simply will not be anything left at the top of the third and final bubble. Three strikes and you are out. Let the melt ups march on. When the taxpayers and government are finally tapped out and we get to the point of total cannibalization, you'll know the end is near (I'm not talking about snacking on the little bank appetizers).

The government should have taken it's medicine when it had a chance in '08, but instead it gave all their most generously donating cronies a get out of jail free card (and passed a law allowing them to be even more generous). Now the financial wizards run the show and hold the government hostage. It is that simple. We all witness every day how out of hand this pump and dump has become. Bull market recovery my ass. Economy is improving, bullshit. The way I see it America has been hijacked by the likes of the Somali Pirates. We're not allowed to have any guns (re: legislation) so they climb aboard ship and game over. Now, the government is in so deep they can't do anything but assist to perpetuate the scheme. We all know if marked to fantasy accounting was eliminated this Ponzi would immediately die, so friggin do it. Grow a figgin set. Take their bullets away and take your damn medicine while there is still some life left in the patient. We want our country back! (well, what's left of it anyway). They better hurry up, the clock is ticking.

Sadly this game will end and everyone will be a loser. They perpetuated it by lulling past and current administrations into deregulating markets and allowing the crooks to run free. Sadly, we all bit, borrowed and spent till we could not spend anymore (literally). Now the government with the aid of our future tax liabilities is supporting 70% of GDP instead of the consumer (not to mention many other things). Accounting gimmicks and silicone investment products allow businesses to exist like nothing ever happened. The stock market runs along with the BD's controlling 70% of the volume and financing it with the Fed's freshly printed money (TG: no monetization, shuh right) all the while front-running every trade skimming even more off of the top.

We are standing by watching this happen? I guess the only thing we can do (other than raising hell in the streets) is to vote the current spineless bastards out and replace them with a fresh set of spineless bastards. Hell, with what is coming down the road and being a TBTF's bitch, why the hell would you want to get reelected anyway. If the O can be president with his resume (and birth certificate), I guess it may be open floor night at the comedy club for this election. Do me a favor and don't fall for any of this posturing they are doing regarding election rhetoric surrounding regulation. It is all a load of shit. If you don't think so, please start reading this post at the top again till you get it. Virtually everyone must go (except Ron Paul of course).

Denninger can out-rant me I think.President Obama: Where Are The HANDCUFFS? Rolls thru Barry's BS speech point by point and drops several choice thought along the way. I suggest you give it a look.

Lehman Bankruptcy Yields Liquidators Almost Three Quarters Of A Billion In Fees is a juicy post from ZH that will get your blood pumping. "Bloomberg quotes George Fisher of Capital Guardian: "What a travesty. They’ve taken nearly three- quarters of a billion dollars out of a company that’s bankrupt, and nobody cares." Too bad the US government will never allow any other firm to file for either Chapter 11 or 7 as this may put a dent in the administration's plan to confuse everyone that the greatest Ponzi market/economy of all time is based on anything but a constant low-volume meltup in the markets." 

Mish took some time off from bitching at the unions to deliver this wonderful and useful post How Safe Is Your Bank? Texas Ratios of 7,500+ Banks Banks with a combination of high Texas Ratio and very low capitalization are likely at extreme risk of failure. There is also this Interactive Map of Worst Banks in the U.S. by Texas Ratio, Non-Performing Assets, and Total Capital Friggin Georgia and Florida are sucking wind in a bad way.

Friday will be here tomorrow. You know what that means? Melt up Monday is only 4 days away!

GL!

$RUT Daily

I'm calling it a throwover of the wedge off the bear market lows of 342. No fibs on the first chart cause I want you to see all the trendlines. What I see is a clear A-E wedge with indicators remaining overbought as this last push up (possible blow off top) in April reversed the daily indicators and have allowed divergences to be set.

Here is the weekly chart that shows the 750 resistance and the bear market upper trendline. that intersection the week of 7/12 or 19 of the wedge top line, resistance at 750 and the bear market upper TL is an interesting point (in case it should rally an unfathomable one last time).

Drill down Daily with possible Fib targets in gray rectangle if the top is in. That divergence in RSI is really hard to ignore. Three support trendlines (peach, blue and pink).I could go out on a limb and say 5/19 at 653 at the 50% fib would be a possible target. Another would be 640 on 6,26 at the 61.8% fib.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Earth Day - Just say no to Cap n Tax. (but you should go plant something or do a nice thing for Mother Earth).

The rolling snowball that is the GS suit appears to be on a 45 degree slope, and it is growing with every revolution sucking in everything in it's path. They have opened Pandora's Box. No one knows how long or wide (global) this hill is, but it should only increase in slope as November comes.

Earnings Calendar -Just lots of them. MSFT, COF and AMZN with the most interest after the bell today.Nothing that will move the market before the bell in the morning.

Economic Calendar - Jobless claims fell for the first time in three weeks. PPI up on higher food prices. Home Sales at 10. Natgas at 10:30. Barry speaks at 11:55 (this may be a market mover).

Pivot Points - Know 'em

E-mini 60m - Yellow line is the bull market corrective's to resistance line. Green line is the move from February's support line. The blue line is support from early march. The interaction with each line is clear. What the bears need is a clean break of the two support lines. This mornings action can be seen on the far right. The futures were down, then ramped up then were promptly slammed 12 points around 4:30 this am. They gort slammed at the intersection of the backtest of the February support line and the bull corrective's to TL. The move was powerful enough to slam it all the way thru March support. The indicators on this 60m chart are weak. What the bears need is for this to be the last backtest and clear resistance to be set.

SPX Daily chart - Want to know what I think? See the green circle? It is a bit larger than I like, but We're a ways out and I hope to refine it as we get closer. Right now I am covering the 50 to 62% retracement from February lows, the support of the last low and the potential backtest of the bear market top TL all around what I see as the next cycle low date. Hopefully those cycles stay in tune with the markets. What I also want you to notice is just how small the moves are this week in relation to the bigger picture.

$CPC - movin on up. Barring a reversal I think this fall has a lot more meat to it.

If today gets busy, I'll post what I can when I can. I don't see any strength as the banksters are running for cover and they may have lost Washington as their largest supporter. Maybe the tide has turned finally back to public interest and the games are ending for Wall St.

GL!