I'm at the beach this week. Answering questions from below

I'll post some this week, but not fully committed unless something breaks. Gona clear my brain and get recharged.

Responces to questions from plas weeks post are in the post.

It was the wedge back test after all

Boy has this chart changed.

I think the gap at 770 gets filled by the end of the month.

The road block on /ES

OK look at the lower chart first. Daily chart, bigger picture and bigger channel. Simple to see that /ES is beating its head on the 50% channel line. Now look at that top 60m chart and keep the 50% line in mind. Some of you liked the idea that I had last week about a back test of the rising wedge we fell out of. Well now that there is a channel there. How about a back test of that? I know Daneric has made a similar (and better presented and more polished post on this), but I'm trying to hit a slightly different angle. The back test of the blue channel today would be near 850. The 50% line is near 834. 836ish is a 61.8% retracement from the top at 944. The daily 100sma is at 829. Indicators on both 60m and daily are getting up there. I could draw a pretty good resistance line at 838. The retracement zone sits right on the 25% channel line below. To sum it up I'm seeing a buy the news, sell the rumor pop today. On the other hand an impulse 3.1 should have the power to blow thru all of this resistance. I'm going with the overbought indicators running into lots of resistance at interesting conjunction points and looking for the pullback to at or near the 25% channel line (if it can get thru the black line).

GL today.

SDS and EEV and the market

OK, so we may be in B up now and could possibly run up to 828 or above. I thought I would look at SDS and EEV for some clues as to when to ADD to positions. I mentioned on ST today late the possibility of the run up to 828 and the fact that we had some more downside possible in the likes of SDS and BGZ. So I took a peek at a couple (actually all of them). Notes are on the charts, but EEV looks tasty with indicators clearly oversold and at the bottom on the E touch of a massive falling wedge. EEV is simple enough. SDS on the other hand looks more dangerous with that gap below, but A) SDS has had a clear breakout of a falling channel and B) there is a trend line SDS perfectly tested with the low on the 26th (lower black dashed line) that runs back thru lows on May and Sept of 08 and Jan 06 of this year. Well HELLO what have we found here but the bear market bottom line and we just tested it? Y'all know Im a bear. I like what I have found in the ending wedge on EEV and just having touched the bear market bottom line on SDS with the channel breakout and 2.1.C.2 almost upon us I may get my last final bear wish out of this market sooner than later. This may be the last chance to play this bounce till P3 brings us back. I'm not buying yet as futures are at the 823 level at this tiem, but I am in the store shopping, just have not checked out yet. Note: Shorting here is EXTREMELY dangerous. If we are in P2 this is a mini bull market (ROFLMAO)and you're shorting into it. That ain't so smart. Be very careful. I am salivating for 3.1.2 to take us up and make a bunch of $$. Might be best to wait for that move. Shorting here is for the brave (or insane) only. GL.

Hey - aren't you proud of me? I did not mention the shell game, conspiracy theory or rigged market once in this post!

Taleb Says Geithner Bank Plan Is Too Limited, Will Fail from Bloomberg

Taleb Says Geithner Bank Plan Is Too Limited, Will Fail

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=video&T=Taleb%20Says%20Geithner%20Bank%20Plan%20Is%20Too%20Limited%2C%20Will%20Fail%20&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/v1p0xhiQAGB8.asf

He's been right all along, why would he be wrong now? And the market is on a tear. Go figure.

Added target line for 2.1.B.2

See red dashed line. If this wedge holds to form this is there I think B of 2 of 1 of 2 tops out before C down to 740 to 731.

So far so good

I almost nailed the D touch. It went slightly higher than anticipated. but it appears the wedge is in tact (for now). 50dma held SPX and possibly caused the reversal. BB's still too wide for any major move either way. 785 should be pretty good support with trendline, the 100dma, a support line and the gap all there. If it gets thru that 766 will be the next target.

GL today.