470 is the jobs number. What do you think it will be revised to? The minis spiked to 62, basically 18 points off the lows this morning and since the 37 low yesterday that means they are up an astounding 25 points in 24 hours on all this great news!
As TD puts it at ZH, "Futures spike immediately as the economy is now losing just around 73k jobs per month instead of the expected 100k, truly a miraculous result. Continuing claims come at 4,456k on expectations of 4,496k, as yet again more unemployed move to the extended ranks: extended rise by 102k and EUC by just under 200k. The US transition to a welfare state continues 300k jobless at a time". I could not have said it better myself.
SPX 30m - I have been showing a few scenarios on the charts. A falling wedge, the head and shoulders and the possible HnS that may just now be putting in a right shoulder.
1) Is price going to backtest the horizontal HnS neckline, possibly fill the gap at 67 today and then GDP sets off the landslide tomorrow.
2) Is the completed downward slanting HnSbacktest complete and we shoot down from the pop this morning?
3) Is the throwunder of the wedge from an oversold (ST) market just now beginning a natural corrective process that may take it as high as 80? (I like 70 max.)
The 30 and 60m charts say the corrective is in play. The daily and weekly charts say more weakness to come. My count is that yesterdays low completed 1 of 3 and this is the 2 corrective before the massively impulsive third of a third. We've risen enough at this time to have completed the corrective in my opinion. So, I'm basically saying pop then drop. Let's see if this wedge can reach it's targets today (70ish) and then digest what the reaction to the horrendous (as far as any normal person would anticipate) GDP numbers will be. One problem I have is that for this market to really take off south there needs to be some sort of LEH type catalyst. Having everything crumbling down around us and the knowledge that nothing good at all can happen is not enough apparently to erode confidence in the markets. When that event happens it will get really fugly. As for upside potential there is no catalyst other than surprise data that is slightly better than horrible (which this market has proven to just adore).
We all know we're playing with a rigged deck and that makes my job that much harder. I have to remain committed to my 30m chart. The divergences on it and the 15m (unfortunately ignored by me yesterday) nailed the bottom and screamed buy at the low. The 40 level of support was another big hint. Those indicators will all be overbought after the open this morning. The 30m minis look nasty with a massive overthrow of diverging indicators which is very bearish. The pop to 61 resistance may have been it, but don;t count out the PPT and Team Bernanke. If, somehow if, price can crack that 40 level (I suspect it will on a big candle with a gap possibly) then we can talk about some serious downside to the 00 level. Till then we have to play "their" games.
GL out there and thanks for the views and support.
