Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Decisions, Decisions and More Maipulation?

I'm struggling with calling for more upside here given the daily indicator's positions and the requirement of a whipsaw to get them going back positive again. SPX sitting on 61.8% retrace from the 866 low to top right now. The 100ma and 888 support are just below. Just filled a small gap at 889 on the 5m chart. Lot's of crap right here. Nothing to stop it between here and gap support at 878 which takes us to 875. At those points the count is toast IMO, but I'm NOT a counter and did not stay at a Holiday Inn last night. I'll mess with anything, but not counting. That is for Dan and K Meister.

At the time of that post (Toot, Toot on 5/7) I was drunk on the 200ma theory and deep in the manipulation theme (not that I have left it). Looking at the FAILURE (finally) of the 60m indicators to pull this one back up again I'm thinking we're headed south here in a larger way than most think. Breadth and other items don't look good. Looks like we're leveling out for lunch here.

Not willing to call a TOTAL breakdown from this point given my EUREKA post yesterday. Unless the banks need a slightly lower price to get their additional shares out the door they will support it here (or at whatever agreed upon price they want the shares at). $DJUSFN is breaking down, no doubt about that IMO. GS and bank movement may signal some discourse in among the ranks! Is someone going to get left out to dry? In the EUREKA post the first article was about the FDIC planning for a big failure. So maybe we need to figure out who the last one to the share dilution window was and that is our great short opportunity. Why not eliminate the competition? They are a bunch of greedy back stabbers.

Bottom line is I'm leaning on a pretty sizable pullback here based on the SPXA50, the Weekly STO bear cross, the Daily RSI trend breakdown, trend lines giving away left and right and several other indicators. Gotta call what I see here. I have not bought (or should I say sold) this yet and am not willing to rule out a whipsaw of great magnitude. It is just a tough damn call. 6 months ago I'd be pot committed on these signals, but I am ZERO in at this point (not for long though). Unbelievable.

GL everybody.