Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

China markets screwing with the system, the euro finally under 130 and a big data morning with Case-Shiller at 9:00, Chicago PMI at 9:45 and Consumer confidence at 10:00. Auto sales tomorrow with APD, ISM, construction and petrol. Things are not good across the pond. We've all known that the fiat/fractal induced bubble economies would eventually falter. One can only play extend and pretend for so long before the pretend part comes home and delivers the facial. That will be sooner than later. At this point they are doing all they can to hold on thru Xmas. As discussed things are spiraling out of control faster and faster as we enter the Event Horizon of the great financial/economic fiat black hole.

Economic Calendar -  Pretty busy week after today. Please ALWAYS check the calendar.

POMO Schedule -  $39B in POMO this week. (We'll most likely have POMO from now to infinity or till the systemic failure that is destined to come.) 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action and throw out tons of charts.

Pivot Points -  For what they are worth in this busted market.


EUR/USD getting hammered and thru support. We have been looking at this turn for some time and it finally appears the markets are going to react to the contagion. Next stop 26.

AUD/JPY correlation has lost some of it's magic, but it may kick back in here as this pair has met resistance as well.

SPX daily - 50dma at 77 and the lower BB at 70 are key support levels here.

Index comparison - I don't expect the financials to play catch up this time as a larger LT RS of a HnS may finally be in play. On shorter time frames the indexes while correlated in movements are very dispersed which is somewhat unusual.

Minis were as high as 1188 last night and as low as 73 this morning. That is another big drop just like yesterday. Plenty of POMO to go around and the power of POMO was seen to be alive and well yesterday. Key SPX level is 73.Looking for the C leg of 4 down to begin. Targets under 73 are 55, 44 and 30. The HnS everyone is looking at is near 27.

GL!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Contagion, is it finally catching on or has the virus just been kept at bay via a massive fiat printing spree? Bottom line is we all know the inevitable results no matter what spin CNBS puts to the story. Bonds will remain front and center. Risk on/off does not matter anymore. there is nowhere left to hide except possibly in precious metals. POMO is being divided to now support multiple markets and can only maintain levels at best.

Economic Calendar -  Pretty busy week after today. Please ALWAYS check the calendar.

POMO Schedule -  $39B in POMO this week. (We'll most likely have POMO from now to infinity or till the systemic failure that is destined to come.) 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action and throw out tons of charts.

Pivot Points -  For what they are worth in this busted market.

Dollar has clearly broken out which is not good for the markets. I had assumed that the correlation would break and still do eventually. It has to some degree as the markets are being propped up by the invisible force of POMO as the dollar ramp continues. How can the greatest fiat of then all be seen as a safe haven? The dollar short will be a great play soon. Things might be finally spiraling out of control and altitude loss may begin to pick up for SPX. When the dollar and SPX begin to fall together it will be the beginning of the end.

The dollar has broken out. 82.5 to 83.5 should be the resistance points. Battling with the 200dma as resistance at this point.

The financials are once again trying to signal reality while the other sectors remain in fantasy land. I don't think we're gonna get the catch up pop we got

SPX daily - RSI14 trying to hold the 50 line and the $BPNYA is actually trying to push back up. $NYMO is trying to climb again. All that adds up to a potential neat term bottom being set. They do not indicate some possible sort of improbable strong move to the upside, just a stalling point for consolidation.

Let's see how resilient (how $39B in POMO) these markets can be at this point. the "good" news about the IRE bailout (just like QEII) is now being met with skepticism. We all know that total global collapse is coming and we're seeing the fires burn hotter now. How long can they hold out is the question till the fiat system falls into total disarray? With the dollar battling the 200dma, the minis at support and the daily SPX indicators there is a chance they make a stand here. If the minis crack 78 then all bets are off and the B leg is in and down for the C leg which targets 1150. If it does not breakdown then consolidation should continue in the range of 1200 to 1175.

The holiday season is upon us. Let's try to enjoy it and remember the reason for the season. GL!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving.I put a few charts in a post last night. I knew they were ready to fall.

Minis possibly channeling. Getting tired.

Here is what they look like this morning. I was quite surprised/pleased to find this. If the pink channel is right, price may settle in after the open. This is possibly the start of the C leg down of 4 or worse. More upside from this fall can be in the cards as well as 4 could be over. Very tough spot to get committed. All the troubles around the globe, yet POMO still lives. Is the tops in? It is possible, but I'm not sold on it. There is an Island gap on cash near 1212.

SPX left two island gaps.

SPX 30m looks ready.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

My 80 year old wheel chair bound great aunt flew in from Houston for the holiday. She was groped by the TSA.

Financials getting crushed. Most likely the beginning of the end has arrived for them. Not sure what is up with the RUT, but based on past performance it may be about to seriously tank. TZA anyone? Of course there are no guarantees this can or will happen.

$DJUSFN

Minis - backtesting and riding support diagonal off the highs (where cash is being limited by this diagonal).

SPX Daily - 

No POMO today or Friday. Everything appears to be spiraling out of control. No telling what this final pre-holiday Wednesday will have in store for the markets. Minis up, but don't deserve to be. SPX had a pretty triangle that should have lead to a down open, so maybe an overthrow then fall? Maybe they just ramp it cause they can? I'm thinking in spite of the bullish minis this AM we still have some sort of down to flat day.

Everyone have a great holiday. Enjoy family and friends. Be careful traveling. We all have many gifts and we have lots of things to be thankful for. Let's take this weekend to identify those and rebuild our selves to be better going forward.

Have a good one and GL!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

S. Korean sentiment at this time - 좃같은 놈. 네 엉덩이를 걷어차 갈거야.Stick that in your Google translator and smoke it. Can I have some of that emotion over here and direct it at the Fed? 

Did you see that We're not the largest holder of our own debt? Foshizzle. Translate that into Chinese and you get 你傻不要脸. Dig this from our buddies at Zero Hedge The Beginning Of The Ponzi End: As Of Today, The Biggest Holder Of US Debt Is Ben Bernanke. Add to that the slight issue of record insider selling  Insider Selling To Buying Ratio Approaches Five Digits, Hits Record 8,280x In Week Ending November 19 and you get a nasty brew.


Economic Calendar -  GDP is now a non event. Jobs tomorrow. Please ALWAYS check the calendar.

Earnings Calendar - Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule -  Today is the last POMO day till Monday. (really we'll most likely have POMO from now to infinity or till the systemic failure that is destined to come.) 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action and throw out tons of charts.


Possible HnS on the minis. At this time skeptical me is viewing it as a possible buying opportunity on the last POMO day till Monday. Pink neckline is the old busted upper diagonal resistance off the 1227 top that is providing support here.

The dollar may be breaking out here. I guess when you are the largest fiat currency on the planet you get a pass as towards realistic valuation.

SPX daily - Showing you this chart cause it gives all the support areas if price should break down. Looks like the dailys will continue their push south thanks to N. Korea.

At this time I am still going to hold on to both counts for up and down. So we're either in the 5th and final wave up, or this is still the 4th wave corrective down. I give a slight chance that the top is set already. With POMO and manipulation, regardless of the groundswell of negative events I can't rule out the power of the Fed. 

This fall should cement that the C move of this ABC corrective is on and the target should be near 1147 for C=A which works nicely with the 38% fib off the 1010 low. 1173 is a key low. Keep an eye on that level. Lower low there will signal more weakness to come. Of course we still have to get to that level. the gap from 79 to 84 should come into play after the open. 


They are making it harder and harder every day for me to retain upside bias (like that is impossible to do anyway for a sane person with the ability to rationalize thought). We all know it will crumble soon. Has it started is the big question. It very well could have, but you can never count out the resilience of a dealer playing with a rigged boot. I'll call it today on the Dark side like I do every day delivering timely charts and analysis. Come check it out. 


GL and happy Thanksgiving.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

To bail or not to bail? Well, does it really matter either way? Either we throw more fiat down the drain or not. At this point you must resolve and fully believe that either way it does not matter. Kicking the can in the game of extend and pretend is only game in town. We sadly do not make up the rules, we do not have any control and we can not opt out for any reason. We're basically fucked. The money masters are saving their asses while we take it up ours. I highly suggest that you enjoy this holiday season. I thought last year would be the last, but they have managed to fly the unicorn over fantasyland one more time. Something tells me the TSA checks at Fantasyland International Airport might be the last straw and will ground their flight this year.

Economic Calendar -  Nothing today. Tomorrow and Wednesday have some good action with GDP and jobs. Please ALWAYS check the calendar.

Earnings Calendar - Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule -  The today and tomorrow are POMO days. (really we'll most likely have POMO from now to infinity or till the systemic failure that is destined to come.) 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action and throw out tons of charts.

It is a holiday week. I expect a bunch of nothing although Wednesday and Friday's shortened session are POMOless. Volume should be abysmal. Interest should be nil. While not everyone else celebrates Turkey Day, we do and that is all that matters. The shit is piling up deeper and deeper (if that was even possible). Even the SEC is now getting off their computers an taking on some sort of massive insider trading case. More than slaps on wrists will be given out this time as they are going after non-corporate entities. They actually prosecute the little people making it look like actual justice is being served. Remember it is all an illusion.

Not sure what to bring you chart wise this morning. The divergences on the 30m were pretty telling on Friday. the will be set with a lower open this morning. Indicators are trending down and in a no-mans-land gray area. I am thinking that a B wave corrective may have completed and C leg down of 4 is here. If not we churn and this is a 2 of 5 up. There is a massive difference in these two calls. one says straight down and one says consolidate then more strength. I never set a target below the 77.5 SPX low we met. Not saying it is not possible to go much lower (1130 max IMO with numerous possible stopping points before there).

The dollar SPX correlation is on the money still. So follow the dollar is still the trade. With the EUR about to get crushed (again) then dollar up market down would be the most obvious conclusion.

Near term the 30m SPX charts divergences tend to agree with the above dollar sentiment. I like the HnS scenario this chart offers, but a breakdown here will obviously nullify or at least change the neckline. The RS may be smaller and set already.

Let's see what develops out of the EU. News is not good. I still suspect that if they can hold out till after Xmas they will. No one wants to screw up this season (except a few Middle Eastern or Far East countries). Holiday week, so I do not expect much. I assume it would not be right to mention the Thanksgiving holiday without bringing up the always anticipated "Bank Holiday" as well. Just something to have in the backs of your mind.

Bottom line, quiet churn to down week with fading POMO and volume. Should be dull, so take some time off and enjoy the fall weather.

GL!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Opex Friday before a holiday week with the futures down after a huge ramp day, could it get any more confusing? Not going to discuss the TSA or other meaningless bullshit our government and Fed produce on an hourly basis this morning. It is friday and let's take the time to forget the fascism for a minute and head into the weekend on a positive note.

Economic Calendar -  Nothing today. Please ALWAYS check the calendar.

Earnings Calendar - Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule -  The next 3 days are POMO days. (really we'll most likely have POMO from now to infinity or till the systemic failure that is destined to come.) 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action and throw out tons of charts.

I'm not expecting any big moves till we determine where the dollar is going. Dollar as expected is consolidating under resistance and above support on the ever narrowing 79 to 78.50 range. Something will have to give here soon. After a day or two of consolidation I would expect it to fall to 77 after upper resistance holds here. Dailys slightly overbought. It can break out and if it should 80.11 would be the first target.

30m chart is my favorite right now. Let's see if price can make 87 and then if it can stop there. I am looking for the blue wedge to possibly dominate trading next holiday week. What you need to look out for is price taking back all of the move yesterday as that has been the trend.

Not much else to say this AM. Let's make it a good day and get our weekends off to an early positive start shall we. Entering the holiday season we need to remember to be thankful for what we have and why we have it. This thought also leads us to contemplate our freedoms and how they are rapidly eroding. Please take the time to discuss this with family, friends and neighbors cause the time is coming fast where we may will have to make a stand against an out of control government. 

GL and have a great weekend!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

With IRE behind us (for now) and GM upon us the markets appear to be pleased. The best news of all was the shut down of HR 3808 late yesterday. Many thanks to 4closurefraud.org/ for all their  efforts to rally the troops.

Economic Calendar -  Leading indicators and Philly Fed at 10 and NG at 10:30. Bond sales compressed and a slew of Fed speak. Nothing tomorrow.  Jobs info from this morning on ZH HERE. Please ALWAYS check the calendar.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule -  The next 5 days are POMO days. (really we'll most likely have POMO from now to infinity or till the systemic failure that is destined to come.) 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action and throw out tons of charts.

OK, so where do we go from here. That is a tough question. Basically the TAists are divided. Top in, top not in is all the rage on discussion boards now. The more I look at the charts (esp the one posted below) I am finding it hard not to believe the top has not been set. I am not biting though. I have to believe in POMO and the manipulative forces of the Fed. EOY prints, bonuses and Xmas must be saved for the psyche of the few investors left in the markets.

Dollar is in a precarious spot having held and reversed off LT resistance, but is now at recent support, thus forming a tight range that it may consolidate in for a day or two leaving us all in limbo going into the weekend.

I added another top to this chart to emphasize things a bit. With the dollar at resistance and possibly turning to fall again you have to ask do we get a disconnect of the inverse relationship with SPX as seen during the last great fall in June.

SPX 60m - I have been pointing to the resistance diagonals on these indicators for a few days now and to the 20ema on the RSI14. When these crack a reversal of some sort should be in play. Well, here we are. I have been calling for a pop to the 92 range then one last fall to complete this portion of the move down. My 93, 87 and 77 targets were all met. I have been speculating on more weakness, but have not called anything below 77. Based on the daily chart above more weakness should be expected, but it can not be promised in the face of POMO and manipulation.

How is your favorite index trading compared to the others?

So where do we go. My call has been for one more pop then drop. this was screwed up a bit when price fell to 87 and then did not pop but paused for 45min and then fell to my big target of 77. I also expected the down move to end going into today with the GM IPO being the catalyst for some sort of turn. This move will look an awful lot like a 3 and might signal that a stronger bottom has been set. At this point I can't make a call on a trend change. Let's see how this corrective plays out and if some of the POMO funds can be diverted from the muni market back to equities. Patience here will pay off. Now is not the time to be jumping on one side or the other.

As for GM - Pop-n-Drop is what I am expecting. I will not be shorting it today, but sooner than later. 

GL.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

OK, now that we have shelved yet another EU disaster and put that behind us (for at least 4 to 6 months I'd say), who is next on the bailout/halt contagion docket? Does Italy finally step up to the plate? Will pesky Portugal or Greece or Spain or any one of a number of needy countries stand up to be recognized for the frauds their budgets are? How about any number of our states or municipalities (which are as large if not larger than some of these EU piglets) stepping up to the bankruptcy window? It is only a matter of time now as the ringmaster has thrown a chainsaw and a cat with a really short tail into the Fed's juggling act.

Economic Calendar -  Industrial Production at 9:15 and then Housing Market Index at 10. Lockhart speaks tonight. the biggi will be CPI and housing starts in the morning. Please ALWAYS check the calendar.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule -  The next 6 days are POMO days. (really we'll most likely have POMO from now to infinity or till the systemic failure that is destined to come.) 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action and throw out tons of charts.


Minis are all over the place. From the close the futures had a steady climb to 80 and then about 1am they had an abrupt fall to 73. They then showed some real resilience and climbed to 81 and here we are now at 77 up 5. That must have been an interesting night.

What is the market going to do today? Do we have ANOTHER red POMO day? Well, I am a bit clueless right now. Dailys diving down, yet, oversold, 6o bottoming and 3o and 15m pushing up. Will they further embed or do they allow a corrective? Pretty much nailed my 77 target but did not get there the way I thought we would. We're missing a bigger corrective off 83. So I am in a position where I have to follow the markets lead today. Up to the double fib confluence or upper diagonal near 94 OR it slides down the lower diagonal to one of several stopping points. I have had a third and final target of the 50dma and Lower BB conjunction near 63 as a fail safe if 77 went awry. Then you have the two 38% fibs at 55 and 44 and the 200dma and Lower BB support at 30. I do think there is more near term downside to come, but that is not guaranteed.

SPX 15m - The cleanest chart I got. Black diagonal was wedge support off 1040. Looks oversold with some slight buy divergences to me. I assume that support diagonal is the one. I cant see anything else to draw. The channel is gone. One thing to note is that if that support diagonal stays in play, the slope vs any rise in price will require another dramatic fall to hit it again. Just something to think about.

Daily Cycle/Target Chart - Well, it worked again. Looking for the black box for the next bottom and then a pop to the red box (not set for proper target at time time) for what should be the top of tops. Note price is almost into actually touching the top of the retracement target box.

 As for the GM IPO, I totally agree with Hedge Fund Titan Steinhardt Says He Would Sell GM Stock "As Quickly As I Can". Should be an interesting day.

GL and thanks for the views and support.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Ireland, gold and silver margin increases, And 14 Pieces Of Bad Economic News That Are So Horrifying You Might Not Want To Read Them Standing Up. Not good. I believe the collapse is ahead of schedule (possibly the first and only thing to be in that position during this whole crisis). The things on the back burner were neglected and are beginning to burn now. Smoke detectors are going off. I suspect we'll have a full blown grease fire by the end of January (and the Barry's administration will debate for a month before deciding to either throw money or water on the grease fire).

Ifyou believe the PPI numbers this morning, please check your unicorn at the door before you enter the building next time (same can be said for the CPI tomorrow).


Economic Calendar -  Industrial Production at 9:15 and then Housing Market Index at 10. Lockhart speaks tonight. the biggi will be CPI and housing starts in the morning. Please ALWAYS check the calendar.

Earnings Calendar - Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule -  The next 7 days are POMO days. (really we'll most likely have POMO from now to infinity or till the systemic failure that is destined to come.) 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action and throw out tons of charts.

Dollar/SPX comparisong chart needs no explanation -

Comparing some key global indexes - Blow off tops abound (and the two most monetized are extremely overbought).

SPX/VIX/USB and TNX comparison - boy has this chart changed on the bond side. Are the 30 and 10 yr about to play a game of chicken? One thing for sure is the markets will react to the bonds sooner than later. They are moving now, but risk off trade is coming sooner than later. That will exacerbate things on the EQ side. Calling Dr. VIX. Calling Dr. VIX. You are needed in reality.

SPX daily - Well, I said last week the similarities to this top and the one in April were astounding (actually worse with a blow off top). Right now I am watching RSI14 to see how it reacts with the 50 line. If that fails significantly it would not be good. BPNYA and TRIX about to bear cross. NYMO reaching a critical point where it has bottomed recently. Bottom line is this chart is FUGLY!

UPDATE - Two more quick charts to keep an eye on. 
Is the dollar maxed out?

Is the AUD/JPY maxed out?

Even in the face of all the disaster surrounding us I am in the camp that this is not "the" fall and we'll (courtesy of POMO and your administration) have one last pop after this fall. We have apparently cycled back into another bad news period where the EU is needing more bailouts and finally barking about the benefits of QEII and is it worth the risk. This round of POMO has surprisingly been a great failure to this point. Makes you wonder where all those billions are going doesn't it? They certainly are not flowing into the markets like some of us expected (at least at this time).

Looks at this time my first target of 93 may get dusted this AM and my second target of 77 is now in play. I expect the markets to fall this morning (to 87ish) and then raise back possibly as high as 97 and then have one last drop to 77. The problem with that is the GM IPO on Thursday. I would suspect they would want a "happy" market going into that one. Calculating that, the IPO may happen in a corrective or just after a significant low in the markets. Bottom line is that sellers are happy and POMO is AWOL (where are all those billions going - Ireland?).

So we continue falling today and tomorrow morning and then the reversal for the GM IPO happens. Let's see how that plays out.

GL and thanks for the views.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Big POMO and pre-holiday week week. You have to ask where the euphoria that lifted the markets off 1040 to the heights today over how wonderful QEII is going to be went away. Of course incidents like David Tepper Dumps 20% Of Financial Holdings During Quarter Of Infamous CNBC Speech really shines the light on the type of scum bags out there that are taking advantage of the situation given to all at the expense of you and me without any oversight from the SEC. It appears that the EU foster children will be bailed out again (again, again), so things calm down on that front a bit. Just keep an eye on bond spreads this time to see if there is any relief. Something tells me that for the third or fourth time we just wasted even more good taxpayer dollars trying to bail out the PIIGS from a ship that is destined to sink.

Economic Calendar -  Mixed news this morning and Business Inventories at 10:00. Housing numbers this week. Please ALWAYS check the calendar.

Earnings Calendar - Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - The 8 days are POMO days. (really we'll most likely have POMO from now to infinity or till the systemic failure that is destined to come.) 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.

Monis channeling down while breaking the major wedge diagonal support.The two green diagonals are the remnants of the rising wedge that has dominated price action since the 1040 lows. Price busted the lower diagonal and is now backtesting it as resistance. This diagonal was lowered twice to find it's final resting place and I am not positive if it will not need to be lowered a third time or not. Price is also battling with busted 1200 support. That is a double whammy for Team POMO to have to fight back thru. While this fall/retracement has been larger than any on this run, it is still not all that impressive managing only 33 points (4 points larger than the previous largest fall).

SPX Daily - 20dma has price here. this is a logical first stopping point. Wedge is busted (again). Green arrows are all support points. Indicators look sick as all the red circles indicate. We need to be watching RSI14 at that 50 line if it should approach it. The lower BB and 50dma are below what I am targeting for this fall. Barring some massive break south that should be the max for this fall. Apparently the A-E rising wedge is completed.

Form of the fall and the effects of POMO are what we have to look for. Will the stress on the markets finally do them justice? Will POMO and the Fed's destructive policies to serve the major financial institutions and destroy the middle class prevail? The shell game continues as the rich keep getting richer and the poor keep getting wiped out. We all know that this charade will come to an end sooner than later and when it does the collapse will be of epic proportions.

Form, I keep hyping on it. P3 or "the crash" will be absolutely head-spinning action. We have not seen that yet. I think this is the last corrective before the final push to the last top we'll see for several years. POMO is the 800 pound gorilla in the room. Can they continue to lift the markets, will they just be able to maintain these levels or will they simply be managing the collapse? I obviously think they have one more push in their back pocket..

I have several counts that can be seen on my 1m SPX chart in my chartbook. This is either a 4 of a 3, a 4 or it was an ABC and we're about to go back up again. Last week I gave my first target as 93 and SPX stopped at 94, so we're at a point I believe we can turn. My lowest target is 77.5 at this point with the lower BB and 50dma's near 62 as possibilities. Let's see if price can make it to the upper channel diagonal. How price and the indicators are acting at that point will tell us a lot. Right now the 30 and 60m indicators are oversold and possibly ready to turn.

GL and have a great week.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

UPDATE - Seriously, you need to look at what I post on the other site and read thru how I call the day's actions. I have a ton of people that visit here for the overview, but miss the meat of the action and 10x more charts over there, I have posted a ton of charts on The Dark Side today that you should see. Please visit HERE. All of this will be consolidated into one site in a week or so when I launch the new .com site.

Curve Ball!!!!!

Is the game catching up with the Fed? Amazing how China all of a sudden is considering raising rates again and the EU all of a sudden throws a fit looking like they need yet another handout. Looks to me like they had a "clue" as to what was coming and knew they were gonna have to go deep on QEII to keep their fraudulent ways and promise of a levitating market alive. Hey Benny! It's game on. time to put up or shut up on your promise to keep the markets afloat at all costs. You've got $53 BBBig ones to spend over the next eight days. Show me what you are made of bitch. I'm gonna be betting on your team off this bottom against all better judgment and what TA is telling me to do.

The charts now basically mirror the April top. The big difference is in April the fed had ended QEI and was in the experimental phase of actually pulling liquidity from the markets. That is not so this time. A full month of POMO is scheduled with more to follow. The Fed, CME and other agencies have been quelling inflation via margin requirements and RICO suits as well. You know how the water flows and spins faster at the bottom of the toilet? That is where we are. I expect that they'll be able to keep the turd afloat till Xmas, then Mr. Hankey goes down the tubes.

SPX Daily - Should bust the wedge finally and land on the 20ma at 94. Then the Fed will need to make their move. Be watching RSI5 and RSI14 at the 50 lines for support. The similarities between this top and April are nasty.

SPX weekly - See the pink boxes at the bottom. 200ma is at 92.

Tops and bottoms chart -

Cycle lines chart -

Let's see what this fall has in it. I'm thinking larger ABC to 92ish then the fed Steps in. If worse, I get my 75 call and then the Fed steps in. Either way I am on the money with the calls since the 1040 bottom. The promise of QEII ramp to the euphoric pop and now the drop in the last week without POMO. I have raised the drop target from the original 30 to 75 and may have to settle for the low 90's. This is only a 4th wave IMO and the markets ramp will sustain till Xmas then all bets are off. At this time I have an initial target of 1250, but since wave 1 was 120 points at this time I'm willing to go as high as 1310. I am not calling this a top here simply cause of QEII. Without QEII I would be balls deep short here.

GL and have a great weekend.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Happy Veterans Day! Please remember and honor those that serve our country.

CSCO tells us what we all already know, everything is a fraud. Maybe the current administration or the Fed forgot to sent the memo to CSCO that any negative data is to be fraudulently reported as positive. Not even CNBS could spin this mess. What does this do for QEII? It strengthens the case that the purely reactive Fed and administration, which has done nothing to create real reform or proactive policies, to continue their reflation/fraud efforts to mislead the country that we're actually recovering.

What may be even more important than CSCO is Harbinger Is A Harbinger Of Things To Come: Goodbye Phil, You Are Just The Start the death of the hedge fund industry. The darling of all worthless piss ant financial advisers everywhere that are not capable of thinking for themselves may be about to crumble. Yes, those little wealth leaches that can't define beta, much less alpha, whose sole purpose if to bring in assets so the "big boys" can do their thing are about to take one in the kisser. This is yet another wake up call for the individual to get off their ass and get involved in the day to day management of their financial assets. (Sorry to those few FA's that actually do know what the hell you are doing and have an honest bone in your body, my apologies.)

This Insider Selling Hits All Time Record Of $4.5 Billion In Prior Week As Everyone Is Getting Out Of Market and this 27th Consecutive Week Of Domestic Fund Outflows are vital pieces of information to tell you what CNBS will not. 



Economic Calendar -  Really quiet week for data. Thursday is Vetrans Day. Please ALWAYS check the calendar.

Earnings Calendar - Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - NO POMO today. The next MONTH is basically all POMO days. 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.

Minis are down just over 7 at their worst levels overnight, but not accelerating at this point at 1205. 1201 was the low yesterday. Resistance is as 1212 and 1216.1200 and 95 are support.

SPX Daily - Not sure if I have show you this chart. Basically some key indicators from the top in April. Similarities are all over the place. The big difference is the QEII blow off top or induced pop where the turn looked to be taking place. The lowering MACD hist continued yesterday and is apparently going to lower today as well.

SPX 60m - boy the bulls had this one just about where they wanted it with POMO starting tomorrow and continuing basically for the next month. What I have been tracking is 2 possible HnS formations. the two necklines are the blue support diagonals. Pullback here to the 90 area and then begin the RS or a deeper pullback to the 70 area are both possible. Unfortunately, I would consider them both unlikely with the QEII support I am anticipating.

We're in a topping process that could last till June. I have been forecasting to end of January or February as the topping point regardless of QEII. Data will continue to drag, earnings (like CSCO) reports are going to be tough to deal with. Thanks to the Fed, QEI, QE Lite and the simple promise of QEII inflation is real and can not be ignored (we will deflate, I promise). When input costs hit earnings and margins get destroyed combined with 17%+ unemployment and a credit strapped consumer whose net wealth is declining it will be game over.

As I have been discussing since the beginning of the blog, the market is all they have left between them and anarchy. I have argued they would protect market values at all cost and have been spot on there. Ben finally admitted this just last week. It has all been a fraud since the 936 level I suspect. Reflating the bubble is not going to work this time. These troubles are real and the death of the USA as the global financial leader is long overdue. Voodoo economics combined with zero regulation have allowed a certain few to dominate the wealth grab at the expense of the rest of us. When this ends the results will be devastating. We will recover. We will be great again, but not until we rid ourselves of the leaches and parasites at the top.

As for the markets and investing. This CSCO announcement is just the first of many. The choppiness will continue. At this time I am leaning for the ramp-n-rectangle trend to continue till at least the end of the year. I am suspecting 1240 to 1250 will be the max (unless the Fed really rips this thing up then add 100 to those points). The market should not fall before Xmas. They can't let it. I am a believer in the fact that this market is rigged beyond a point anyone can fathom. With retail basically out of the game, the Fed controlling inflows and the PD's controlling trading how can you bet against them. I'm still waiting on my catalyst that I have been calling to rip the markets from their control.

Happy Veterans Day and GL!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Not sure how long the market can continue to praise -435k job losses as a victory (especially when you know they will be revised). This is the 42nd downward revision in 2010, out of 44. The 99ers are going to be dropping like flies soon and when they hit the streets the brutality of reality will shine, and the raw fact that our government has failed at doing anything to assist anyone other than the banks will be more prevalent than ever.

Economic Calendar -  Really quiet week for data. Thursday is Vetrans Day. Please ALWAYS check the calendar.

Earnings Calendar - Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - NO POMO today. The next schedule will be released today at 2:00.

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.

Minis reaction to the jobs number was delayed as the initial call was greeted by a pop then drop and about 10m later the PPT came in and ran price thru the 1212 resistance. 1216 is the bigger resistance above now.the dollar fell a bit on the news and is basically in line with the close from yesterday. Will the commodities continue their move south. can we get into some sort of brief profit taking mode. Dollar moving ahead of G20 tomorrow may have been some sort of consolation to get the numbers slightly less skewed before the meetings.

I have been calling for the pop-n-drop and so far so good on that call. Has the drop run it's course is the big question?  I am a big believer in market manipulation and Ben has said he'll do anything to keep the equities markets roaring. Today we get the next POMO schedule. Just how large does the Fed go and when do the POMO's start? That will determine the bears window to continue this fall. I am calling this a 4th wave or a corrective before one last ramp most likely into early February. All bets are off after Xmas. They can not let ANY negative sentiment creep into the markets between now and then.

SPX Daily - My hope is that they allow the markets to fall to the 1175 level. Best case would be a fall to the 1155 level. Those are both a pipe dream of course. What is more likely is that the pattern of ramp and rectangle continues. The move to 1227 appeared to be measured (equal to the width of the last rectangle). So, the top may be in for a little while (depending on the size and strength on the next POMO). At this time anything down is deserved but will be squashed by the fed. The market is their preferred vehicle. It is rigged and you need to play it as such.

USD Monthly - My favorite chart that helped me call the 74 bottom and the 89 top. What the heck does it do here? Could it continue to consolidate or does the descent continue as the triangle breaks down? Applying QEII to the markets one would have to speculate that the inverse relationship the dollar has to the markets is about to be tested if the dollar is to continue to consolidate in the triangle. I speculate the Fed will allow the dollar to rise some as imports for the Xmas season are all in the country now and retail can't be helped anymore. As the sky high commodity prices finally get passed along to the consumer next year retail will get destroyed, so the dollar will have to remain low or even fall more (this is the Fed's oxymoronic conundrum).

Looking for another red day, but not counting my chickens. Let's see the markets reaction to the POMO schedule release. 1212 is apparently a number the minis have been struggling with. 16 is above that. Below there is nothing till 1200. If price can get moving south and can get into that ramp from 10/04 then it should retake that rather quickly. If price can not break down from here, you may want to consider getting long with tight trailing stops. It is all a guessing game on this the possibly last non POMO day till infinity.

GL!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Fed Global Backlash Grows boy is this a tough time to try and figure things out. Everyone is coming at the Fed from all angles and they defiantly stick to their guns. I guess when you have been responsible (along with the government) for virtually destroying the global financial system people begin to lose faith in your fraudster/scam ways. Even the sheeple are tired of seeing you serve the banks like some high dollar prostitute and rob the poor at the same time, your game is tired and soon to be over. The only debate that is left is does the Fed continue on the path to total destruction or do we simply destruct and begin to rebuild now (like we should have in '08). As long as the banksters and special interests are in control, we know who will win that battle no matter the cost.


Economic Calendar -  Really quiet week for data. Thursday is Vetrans Day. Please ALWAYS check the calendar.

Earnings Calendar - Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - NO POMO today or tomorrow. The next schedule will be released on the 10th.

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.

UPDATE: Just looked at my CPC chart. Things are really getting extreme at this point. this does not mean a top, but if trends hold, we're darn close if not there. 

SPX Daily - Still living outside the upper BB. Overbought is an understatement. A joke is the best possible description. Manipulation is still rampant even thought the Fed is apparently in deep shit. Still not sure what to think. If the bastards continue their ways (allowed to or not), then nothing changes and the ramps continue (despite the tsunami of criticism). If they announce that QEII is dead, the markets dump really fast and hard. So, do we finally take our medicine? We all know what happens when the fed stops. So, can they? Do they?

Index Comparison chart Daily - Financials still lagging, but I like it as a bear when they all bunch like this and with the financials lagging, that may be a tell that a turn is due. Well, that would be a "normal" situation, and we all know things are not normal.

SPX/Dollar comparison chart - Daily dollar/SPX Rorschach test.

So, no POMO today or tomorrow and data is light. This is the time I thought the bears would have a chance. I called for a euphoric pop then drop after the QEII announcement. I got off to a great start yesterday calling for a quiet RED POMO day and got that. This call is facing a do or die scenario today and tomorrow. In hindsight, any call for a fall in the face of pumping liquidity may have been idiotic, but with conditions the way they are a pullback (under any "normal" circumstances) would be expected here. I raised my target form 1130 to 1170 for the pullback. IF, IF, IF somehow QEII gets sidelined, the crash is on and were still in C of P2. If not, then I'm guessing were somewhere 5 of P1.

Normalcy is being cried out for and as mentioned above the Fed's plan to pump more fiat into a already bloated fiat system is severely being balked at. Here we are again at the gate of do or die. We all know they are running out of stick saves. Where is my catalyst? Where is the one thing that can rip control of the markets from the Fed and send us on the righteous path to the bottom where we can finally begin to rebuild and rid the world of this credit bubble? With China cracks down on inflows, slams QE and the EU about to crumble maybe the Fed will not be able to stay off the global full court press they are about to face. On the other hand, a caged tiger (Fed) that is protecting its cubs (banks) will fight to the death.

GL today!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Should be an interesting week with G20, PIIGS crashing yet again, QEII schedule announcement, for the most part I believe we have entered a state of limbo. Confidence is lost as the announcement of the Bernanke Put basically was the admittance that nothing is real anymore and our leaders honestly have no viable plans to revive the economy (well - how could they if they are on the inside with the bankers raping the middle class?). 

Economic Calendar -  Please ALWAYS check the calendar. Really quiet week for data. Thursday is Vetrans Day.

Earnings Calendar - Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - Last POMO Lite today. The next schedule will be released on the 10th.

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.

The big question becomes how far does the market separate from reality with QE Douche? What will $27T do to move equities with retail basically gone from the trading floor? Can they suck the sheeple back in to a 1999 style ramp for the last great wealth grab? Will the public remain skeptical as the 26 weeks of consecutive mutual funds outflows suggests? Will the insiders continue to sell at the fevered pace they have been bailing at? All big questions which lead us to a point of digestion. A point not to invest or get out, but a point to set trailing stops and sceptically let the market tell us if the RAMPant fraud will continue and for how long.

SPX Daily - On a POMO day you have to be expecting green, but then the door will be wide open for the bears tomorrow and Wednesday with no POMO's scheduled. Living in a parabolic state above the upper BB is not a safe place to play. My call for the euphoric post QEII/election pop-n-drop may have some chance still. I don;t think it will be as great as the 1130 pullback I was hoping for, so I have upped that target to the 1170 area for a best case scenario for the bears at this time. 60 points would be twice as large as any pullback that we've had since the climb off 1040, so that is an aggressive thought. Charting this weekend it was hard not to notice the severe overbought conditions, but we all know with the Fed and POMO ruing the co-located servers what can happen as soon as we expect a turn. What is different about this top and the one in April? Simple, the Fed will have QEII and they will not be pulling liquidity from the markets. That says enough alone.

30m Index Comparison Chart - I like it as a bear when all the indexes come together tile this. 

Holiday week but markets will be trading. Semi-quiet data week. G20 and Barry out there hocking his lies will drive some news. The PIIGS are crashing again. It is quite possible that we get some moves in the EUR or AUD that may move the dollar sooner than later (I will discuss the dollar more later this week in detail). Will the markets decouple from the dollar is a big question.

GL this week. It will be interesting and I'm mainly looking for the next POMO schedule on the 10th. Till then today is a POMO day, and we all know what that means. I will go out on a limb and speculate that this may be a rare red POMO day.

GL!