Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

GDP was right on the number - SURPRISE. LOL, even Santelli says look for it to be revised downward these days. I'm sure he'll hear it from the boss this afternoon for that one (must follow propagandist rules).

My thoughts on the elections - 1) VOTE, get off your ass get out there and vote. Every vote matters. 2) I will personally be voting against every incumbent regardless of party (the Franks and Pelosis of the world MUST be removed from office if we want our country back).

Economic Calendar - GDP, PMI (9:45) and sentiment (9:55) today. Please ALWAYS check the calendar.

Earnings Calendar - Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - NO POMO today! There are only 3 POMOs left and the next schedule will be released on the 10th.

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.


One chart today - This is my cycle top/bottom chart. It has done pretty well so far and I'll stick with it till it breaks. Black box is what I am expecting as the pullback range and the red box indicating the next top is what I am suspecting at this time to be the final top if this is not it. We'll know by form of the fall (super heavy selling and basically total panic - the next flash crash) when the real top is set.

Other than one stumble last week, I have been spot on since the 1040 lows when Ben spoke of QEII consistently preaching of the powers of POMO, the "promise" of QEII and the fact that they can not let the markets go before the election (actually they can't let the markets go ever). Nothing big happens till the QEII announcement. I do believe there will be some sort of sell the news event, but how large is the question.

At this time I'm speculating the 1125 area as my primary target with a descent chance it could be worse than that. They will not let the markets fall significantly before the elections, but volatility should be in play as the few that are left participating in this rigged POS market jockey for position. THEN you have to think about the markets and the Xmas spending season. Can't have shoppers out there worrying about their retirement accounts. Then you have to think about the lame duck congress and what the hell they will try to ram thru before the EOY.

I hope everyone gets more treats than tricks this Saturday night. Lord knows it has been a few years full of tricks and sadly we have many more to come. Let's at least get a good sugar buzz on this Saturday night and enjoy it while we still can.

Thanks for the views, votes on Stockcharts and your support. Have a great weekend.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

I don't get it but I do get it. Market has every reason to be worried as hell, but the promise of QEII and the severe manipulation keep it afloat. When  you have trash like XLF Sets World Record In Quote Stuffing With 23.3 Quotes Per Millisecond happening. When JPM, HSBC Sued For Silver Market Manipulation, Reaping Billions In Illegal Profits and This Appears To Be Worthy of JAIL - RIGHT NOW are common place incidents that markets ignore, then things are so bad nothing really matters anymore.
 
Economic Calendar - GDP, PMI and sentiment tomorrow. Please ALWAYS check the calendar.

Earnings Calendar - Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - POMO today! There are only 3 POMOs left and the next schedule will be released on the 10th.

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.

Dollar/SPX correlation update - nothing has changed. 

Congrats to those long tech. Apparently AAPL's reduced margins to ONLY 36% was not all that bad. 

Minis 60m - after nice move south have taken back the wedge and fought back thru 81 resistance.

SPX 60m - apparently 20 to 30 points is all the SPX wants to give up these days on any pullback. Price will be back into the wedge after the open. See the minis chart above to see what to expect.

Yesterday I was not willing to go out on any limbs, and I am not going there today either. We are handcuffed till the elections and QEII are announced. Till then I will most likely not open my trading platform and remain idle. To me this is the prudent play. Even with the JPM silver suit the silver futures have not budged. Things are really screwy. I'll start doing some more detailed posts soon.

So, up we go on a POMO day with job losses still below the 400k range there is every reason to celebrate. Sorry I can't speculate on future moves. The big question is what happens on the QEII announcement and if any of the foreclosuregate or myriad of other horrific financial news can actually effect the markets. Sell the news? I think we'll get that. How big a move? Depends on POMO and how aggressive the selling gets. With insiders leaving in droves, I would assume that this charade will not last much longer.

GL out there and thanks for the views and support.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Not much to say. Pressure on the markets is evident. Overbought? Shuh, the daily chart is now screaming sell me, but POMO persists and so do the HFT bots. The promise of QEII and the elections should keep things in check the rest of this week. One more POMO day tomorrow and some large economic numbers remain (Jobs and GDP) this week.

Economic Calendar - Loaded with data all week. Please check the calendar.

Earnings Calendar - XOM before the bell tomorrow. Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - NO POMO today! There are only 3 POMOs left and the next schedule will be released on the 10th.

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.

SPX daily - Divergences are clear and so is the wedge that is clearly consolidating and ending.

SPX 60m - Closer look at the wedge ending and consolidating with diverging indicators. The possible HnS formation with the blue neckline is something I am keeping an eye on. Got GAPS?

Not going out on any limbs today as I simply have to wait on QEII and the elections to come next week. The markets want to pull back and there is no POMO today. Looking for the wedge to break at the open, but not getting to excited about any massive breakdown quite yet. I suspect the top is set at this point. Possibly some weakness to the 65 area and then a move up to the red diagonal to set the right shoulder on the QEII announcement. After that we can then talk about a big breakdown.

Now about that big breakdown, will it only be a corrective or the real thing? At this time I have no clue and the form of the fall will be the tell. we're either in P2 (still going up) or P3 (still crashing). Given the extension of this move in time and price I'm leaning to still in P2 bull phase. Form, form, form of the fall will tell us what is happening. Market manipulation and the lack of the market's ability to take any of this fanatically bad news seriously (cause all of retail has abandoned the market and bots are running the show now) is quite astounding. As I have been saying for a long long time, it is going to take a serious event or catalyst to rip this market form "their" control. The markets are all they have left between then and anarchy. What you are seeing in France will be here in 2011.

Hang in there. Another week or 10 days and we'll know what to do. GL and have a great day.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

The bombshell that Foreclosuregate is can not be denied. Zero Hedge has two must read posts in Bill Black On Foreclosuregate: Calls For The Immediate Termination Of Bernanke, Geithner And Holder and SIGTARP Calls Out Tim Geithner On Various Violations Including Data Manipulation, Lack Of Transparency, "Cruel" Cynicism, And Gross Incompetence. Denninger has Bair: Foreclosuregate Is A ****show and many more. Must read stuff that will make your toes curl. My "catalyst" or LEH type incident is here. Now it is only a matter of time before the lit fuse makes it to the powder keg.

Economic Calendar - Loaded with data all week. Please check the calendar.

Earnings Calendar - For my local fans AFL reports after the bell today. Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - POMO today! There are only 4 POMOs left and the next schedule will be released on the 10th.

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action. 

Minis down 4. While some of the earnings news  is good the broader news is horrific. Still waiting on QEII and the elections as POMO and the HFT bots keep the overbought markets afloat. Commodities and currency are playing a huge role in the markets now. Note the ongoing dollar/SPX correlation is on big time. If you are questioning that the dollar bottomed and SPX is still rising, that is a function called bullshit keeping the markets afloat.

The financials are still lagging, yet the markets continue to climb. this is another sign of the bullshit I referenced above.

 My favorite chart compares the VIX (busted), TNX, SPX and USB (30yr bond). Note forst the SPX is trading just below the weekly 200ma at 1194.22. This is a huge hurdle. SPX should be trading with TNX and if things correct accordingly we should see SPX trading near 800 before to long. Some are pointing to the SPX and VIX both being in HnS formations. If you visit a site like that. STOP and never go there again.

Comparing a few major global indexes here you can see the recent dramatic rise in the Shanghai index and the lagging NIKEI. With the dramatic outflows we have seen for the last 24 consecutive weeks from mutual funds that money has to go somewhere and China is apparently one place the funds have gone (and other emerging markets).

A quick look at oil - range bound really since June of '09 and has been in a relatively narrow channel since then. Historically oil has gone opposite the dollar. In this case it is not rising and that sounds a warning to me that the demand (and thus the economy) is not there. If the blue wedge is right price has consolidated out the end. Place that in conjunction with the indicators and oil might be due for a fall. I'm not betting on this, but more weakness should be expected near term.

SPX 60m - I am bothered by the fact that 1200 is still in the SPX neighborhood. QEII, POMO and the elections are there as well. Downward pressure is clearly rearing its head in spite of all the "promise" that QEII has to offer. Priced in? You have to ask how much? the wedge scenario now has two lower diagonals. The first one busted and the new lower one is still intact. the divergences are there.The daily MACD bear cross is there. the weekly 200ma is there. I am thinking SPX is forming a head and shoulders here (neckline not shown in this chart - sorry). It is worth about 40 points and may taget the gaggle of daily support near 1130 SPX.

 The minis are currently 17 points off their highs yesterday morning The form this time is quite different than in the recent falls. More controlled and not as violent. I don;t think the markets let go before the election or the QEII announcement without some more really bad news. This may be a sell the news set up. the markets are very overbought near term. As for form, the big question remains is this a 3rd and we're still in P2 or are we ending 2 and the crash begins sooner than later. Form of the fall will tell us that. Can the bears bring it to the hoop with power or not? We'll know early next week. Today and Thursday are POMO days so don't get to excited about any downside action.

GL and have a great day.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Bottom line it there are only 8 days left till the QEII announcement. Screw the 61 days till Christmas, it is all about QEII baby, rampant monetization, proping up a failing fiat currency, propping up markets that are a farce and keeping what's left of RE values in tact. Really not much to discuss as whatever the Fed wants to do to either correlate to or counteract from global and domestic economic stress it will do legal or not.


Economic Calendar - Exising home sales at 10:00.

Earnings Calendar - For my local fans SNV reports after the bell today and AFL tomorrow after the bell.  Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - NO POMO today but we do have one tomorrow and Thursday. There are only 5 POMOs left and the next schedule will be released on the 10th.

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action. 


/ES - SPX futures 4hr - What else can you say other than rectangle and ramp. The large corrective last week was nice, but proves to have been another head fake in a market that refuses to correct. Running of the fumes of the promise of QEII and the reflation trade despite all the negative factors that exist the markets simply refuse to fall. Well, we all know why they refuse to fall as the POMO trade and SECless (unregulated) markets damn the torpedoes and continue to crate the illusion that all is well.I think there is a very good possibility that we're forming a HEAD right now of a possible HnS pattern that will allow the markets to roll over. The pink diagonal is the neckline.

SPX 60m - The wedge and divergences. What it all means in a fully rigged market who knows. What it means from a TA perspective is that the market should be at some sort of NT overbought top that is in dire need of a larger sell off.

Earnings continue to roll in handily beating either lowered revised estimates, FASB lessened contrived numbers or pathetic comprables that a monkey could beat. POMO continues for 5 more days and the next schedule is released on the 10th. The election and the QEII announcement are less than a week away. The G20 is over and no one understands anything that came out of those meetings. Fraudclosuregate is getting swept under the rug as it is clear that the consumer was fucked by the big banks and no one seems to give a shit.


The big question remains are we in P2 or P3. If P3 scenario then this move is ending C of 2 and the fall from here should be dramatic. If P2 then we're most likely ending a 3rd of the final wave 5 move to the top. Either way the market crashes eventually. The reflation trade can only go on for so long and the third and final bubble will burst. What will the markets do this week? If the ramp and sideways action is to be continued then that is simply it. Rinse/repeat. The wedge has either busted or is resetting it's lower D touch yet again


Given the rampant corruption and riggedness of the markets I don't think they can fall going into the elections. All we can do at this time is wait and see what happens on Tuesday next week.

For those of you that need a picture to see what is happening to the price of cotton here you go - that is a ramp from $72 to $124 (up 72%) since July.

Looking at the dollar - No one seems to want to admit or discuss that mini flash crash to $74.60 late Friday. It appears to be channeling down and has busted the most recent trend down and has a chance of some sort of corrective here. It is struggling to rise as most expected. Currency wars continue and as long as we're printing the fiat currency, then I am not sure how it is supposed to ever rise again.

GL out there and have a great week!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Shanky is on vacation. Visting the Smokey Mountains. Starting in Chattanooga, Tn today with Rock City, Ruby Falls and some Civil War spots. I'll be updating charts sunday night and will be refreshed and ready to go Monday AM as I take a much needed break from all this BS. I'll also report on what I see economically.

SPX Daily - That black vertical line was placed on this chart back on October 11th. Sadly I did not note why I put it there. I think it was some cycle work I was doing. Anyway, overbought busted wedge is what we're dealing with. So far, technically, the market is still semi-sound at this daily level. SPX is about to give a golden cross. I find that humerous, but not really with QEII coming. But the wedge is ending, no the golden cross, but no the markets are overbought, but the dollar is crashing, but TNX is tanking? You tell me what is up and what is down? Bottom line is that the markets are busted in my opinion and totally controlled at this point. Nothing is real anymore as bid stuffing creates the illusion of volume, C, AAPL and a handful of others dominate the volume. We just have to wait till QEII is announced and then see what happens. The most interesting thing that happened yesterday was the Fed Withdraws $1.5 Billion In Liquidity Via Reverse Repo, Stocks Predictably Turn Negative this was not a good thing for the markets the last time they tried this.

GL and have a great weekend.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Minis set a higher high, but pulled back after striking the upper wedge resistance. Jobs, CAT and MCD are all good, but minis only up 5? Maybe there is something larger hanging over the markets? No POMO today.Dollar is basically flat after falling yesterday.

Economic Calendar - Jobless Claims Fall From Another Upwardly Revised Number

Earnings Calendar - Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - NO POMO today but we do have one Friday!

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action. 

SPX Daily - I think the wedge is busted for now and a larger retrace is in order. Given the MACD bear cross here and other conditions I don;t see how (other than POMO and other intervention) it can remain elevated here. This does not mean that "the" top is set as the QEII announcement may spur one last rush and then the odds of POMO for years to come as the bots simply stuff bids and pass shares around keep the markets in their levitated state (even if all the financials get wiped out with foreclosuregate and the MBS fraud). Who needs stinking financials when you have AAPL and NFLX.

Here is the post I did on The Dark Side

Minis topped (so far) at the upper wedge resistance line and pulled back even after the jobs report supposedly surprised. If all this positive news only has the minis up 5, I view that as incredibly weak. Apparently our counting of the 3 corrective to 62.5 low was it. and we should finish a 5 up this morning. The big question is does price break out to new highs, does it remain in this range or does it finally have some sort of meaningful retracement? This wedge action is undeniable, but an overthrow (even a significant one) is still possible but doubtful as there is not much wedge left and the daily MACD has gone in bear mode. I still worry about that 1200 level just above but really think this is the top at or near this level.

Dollar falling again. Not sure with where the USD/JPY pair is that they can allow it to fall much farther. 

CAT and MCD beat and the minis set a higher high. All praise POMO, the promise of QE II and lowered earnings estimates. When the fact that all this growth, that is the reflation trade, ramped by nothing more than fiat currency, zero interest rates and sensational amounts of debt is finally realized, the pain will finally set in.

Minis 60m - The pattern is plain to see. Range bound rectangles and ramps.The question is are we about to turn 80 resistance into support and move into a new range from 80 to 00?

Here the trend is back to 1040 levels. They cycle fairly well and they measure nicely. You are witnessing an artificial controlled and measured ramping of the markets.

If the markets get a good whiff of 2000 level that would only make sense to be the next 20 point range to travel into. Guess what is 20 points past that? QEII and POMO and the fact that they MUST at all costs keep the markets afloat means this charade will continue until someone somewhere calls shenanigans on the Fed and administration. It is totally awesome that they can do this to support the global elite all the while shifting wealth and future tax obligations to them as well. God bless America. As investors we need to do as they say, "follow the money". Sadly this appears to be the only reliable trade till it all implodes.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

The SPX was green 3 of the 4 days following the April top. Markets just don't roll over and die. They fester and then collapse these days.

BAC and fraudclosuregate are the biggest jokes on the planet and should be market drivers as they blatantly demonstrate and represent what the entire investment universe has become, a total farce. Will BAC go the way of LEH? They Fing should. I have a feeling if they become another GSE (more than they are now) this country will erupt. Pretty soon we'll be running into some real issues of a lame duck congress attempting to push thru some really bad legislation. Let's hope they don't magically heal BAC's woes before the end of the year. I don't think they will, but they will try. This time the banks are not going to be able to hold CONgress hostage and threaten them with financial destruction. The people will not stand for it.

Economic Calendar - Lacker at 9:30, Petrol at 10:30, Plosser at 12:45 and Beige book at 2:00.

Earnings Calendar - NFLX after the close. MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - POMO today and Friday!

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.

SPX 30m - 30m SPX fell to it's 200ma. Completed a 38% retrace of the move off of the 1130 lows and put in a nice engulfing reversal candle in the last 30m yesterday. Markets (on a POMO day no less) may want to work off some oversold conditions.

SPX Daily - Support points are the green arrows all over the place. Wedge is clearly busted. RSI 5 is hurting. We need to pay attention to RSI14 at the 50 line to see if it can bust thru that support. Overbought is still an understatement.

Can the bears fight off POMO and the promise of QEII? Nervous? Youbetcha! Markets and the world know were in a world of hurt as we travel up the river of deNile. This past week or so has been range bound with some really dramatic swings top to bottom.

So, was it a 3 as cash counts or a 5 as the minis count. Let's let that 30m chart cycle and let the market show it's hand. Things are not good, but with this as a POMO day and the fact that 3 of the 4 days following the April top were green let's let the market tell us what to do. What do i constantly harp on 1)form of the fall and 2) volume and impulsive selling. Yesterday was a great start. Exactly what I have been waiting on. Now we just need confirmation.

GL!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Top. there- I said it. More on this below.

Yesterday in my closing comment before the bell on Shankys Dark Side I said, "The wedge has been reduced to a mere 15 point sliver. It is clearly consolidating and obeying the parameters. The overthrow this time (if the top is not set now) should be it and will most likely garner a top call of some sort from me in spite of QEII, elections and POMO. Most likely I said, I still got a few hours to think about it. These divergences and that daily MACD may be to much to ignore."

GS has revenues plunge? So what's new? Everyone for umpteen consecutive quarters has missed on revenue and now it is a big deal? AAPL's guidance was not so hot and others continue to beat lowered estimates. I have a question. Where the hell was I (and the media) when all these estimates were lowered or revised? I must have missed all of that somehow. The two must see posts from last night are 1) SPY Flash Crashes: NYSE Cancels $500 Million Worth Of Trades and 2) Visualizing A POMO Market: How The Fed Added 400 Points To The S&P


Economic Calendar - Two Fed Presidents speak today, Evans at 9:40 and Fisher 12:50.

Earnings Calendar - YHOO after the bell (remember when their numbers meant something?) MS, WFC and BLK (with ABT, MO, BA) before the bell in the morning and NFLX after the close. MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - No POMO today, but we do have it Wed and Fri.

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.

SPX 60m - Can't say any more than the wedge is ending and the numerous blown thru divergences scream how overbought this market is.

SPX Daily - Again, wedge and divergences with overbought conditions.

Top? Let's call it at yesterdays highs. Makes for a nice double top with divergences and the wedge ending. I said I'd call it so (partly out of frustration against POMO, QEII and all) I'm trowing in the towel. I waited and waited watching the cumulative effects of the promise of QEII (+POMO) and had to see what happened with AAPL and GS. Could not make the call before those reports and it turned out to be the right call (so far).

NOW, WHICH TOP is the big question. Is this THE top of 2 of 1 of P3 or is this simply the top of a 3rd of C of P2? that is the huge question and one I can not answer. With the rampant manipulation and QEII there may be one last ramp left in the Fed that I am calculating (if it happens) tops in early February.

It will all be about the form of the fall. We'll know if 1) we get big volume down, 2) the retracement levels of the move off 1040 lows and 3) What happens at the point where C=A (similar to where we are now but the inverse) and does it turn into a 3rd or reverses. I speculated the markets would let go before the elections as some sort of ploy to further weaken the administration's effect on the elections (not sure why given the current admin could not screw up any more or look any worse than they do). Then do we get a rally to the EOY after QEII announcement?

I'm running out of time to discuss the rest of this in detail, but the global tensions of the currency crisis are boiling over. FX Wars Escalate: Brazil Cancels Participation In Upcoming G20 Meeting is a good place to start. Reading China Raises Benchmark Rate By 25 bps is another. The dollar and interest rates will become even larger market drivers (like they are not already) than they are now. Keep an eye on UUP and TBT.

GL out there. More on The Dark Side all day long if you are interested.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

As bad as it all appears with Fraudclosuregate, nothing matters but POMO, QEII and good impressions going into the elections and now apparently the Christmas season. The farce continues to run, but its underlying structure gets weaker by the day. Not sure how long they can hold out, but as long as Ben has ink, he'll keep printing do or die. This single factor keeps investors on the edge. Just keep those trailing stops in place. You along with the rest of the world will know when to run for the gates. It should be very obvious when the turn hits I'd think.

Economic Calendar - Industrial production at 9:15, HMI at 10 and Lockhart speaks at 12:30. Housing starts tomorrow. 

Earnings Calendar - AAPL and IBM after the bell and BAC, KO, GS and JNJ before the open.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule -Three POMO days this week M, W and F.

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.


The dollar will remain a key market driver. It appears to be close to some sort of bottom where the Fed has stretched all it can out of its most recent plunge. Bottom line is dollar down market up. That is good for exports and bad for the consumer. Time for the balancing act to switch back to the consumer just in time for Christmas (who could not see that one coming). I do not prescribe to the "major" bounce most are calling for in the dollar. It will last thru the new year and that will be it, then the devaluation war ensues. What all the dollar bulls are assuming is that it is the strongest currency and that it still appears to be some sort of safe haven. They are wrong. The M2 figures combined with QEII and the fact that the price of gold is where it is all go to prove that the fiat currency will not explode but eventually crumble under the weight of the trillions already and to be printed. So, enjoy the coming pop. this will be it for the dollar (and may be it permanently).


This is the chart I used to call the 74 target low and the 89 target high. Monthly indicators don't lie and they are decidedly headed south.

Dollar/SPX comparison chart. The inverse relationship can be busted, but as shown recently it should remain intact. If the dollar does begin to rise, the markets should fall, but will they with the promise of QEII and all the intervention and control they are under?

EUR/USD - Nearing upper resistance, completing 61% retracement off the last high and measuring to a near perfect C=A corrective adds to the dollars case for a pop and a potential market top.

SPX, TNX, USB and VIX Daily - VIX may need to make it to support. TNX says SPX should be sub 800.

VIX, VXX and VXZ comparison - Pretty simple, near term fears are not that great, but go out and the fear grows.

SPX daily - If the cycle lines chart continues to forecast highs and lows then we're nearing a top here. I still like my descending triangle top call that has the April highs as safe (for now).

QEII, 3 POMO daays this week, the elections - same old story that I have been reaching since the 1040 lows. Markets don't give a flip about the robosigning scandal (except for the financials (as shown in the weekend post chart below). This will eventually catch up to the markets, but near term they could care less. If the markets gat one important miss in earnings you'll see a dramatic reaction, but if there are none, then the ramp will continue. the relationship to the dollar will be a wild card. If the dollar rises, will the markets fall?


I'm not making any calls till the morning with all AAPL, BAC and GS on deck. Should be an interesting week. I speculated last week, as part of an election play they may let the markets slip before the elections to try and drive voters for more conservative votes. The lack of emotions surrounding these elections demonstrated the complacency of the sheeple and is truly embarrassing. I believe it will be quite different 2 years from now.


GL this week!

Weekend Post

One simple chart.

This can not be good. Financials are supposed to lead right? Let's see how the power of POMO deals with this mess.

Havea great weekend.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Everyday we get one step closer to the long deserved implosion. Global and domestic tensions are growing, and I believe the Fed and this administration have lost all control of the situation. Well, control of reality that is, not this fantasy world of fiat that they try and push on us. They have that ship running just fine.

The lies are getting thicker. When the election is over things will change drastically. That may be when some of the thicker problems begin to rear their ugly heads above the mist of distraction the administration has laid to cover their tracks. Fraudclosure crisis, employment, debt and monetization are just a few off the major issues that face the domestic and global financial system. Considering just those four issues is daunting enough. Throw in the myriad of other problems and the mole hill becomes a mountain.

We're in deep trouble and don't believe it when anyone tells you things are getting better. They may be stabilizing only because if they do get any worse off the cliff we go. Odds of running the car off the cliff .....95% I'd say. You only need one fact to grasp the reality of the situation. That single fact is that very soon we'll be the largest holder of our own debt. We're already number two. In other words, we're (the Fed) the only ones that believe we can reinflate the credit bubble and all will be well. This is not reality.

Shanky's fantasy thought of the day - Could there be a chance that Fraudclosuregate will not be that big a deal to the banks. Why do I speculate something that audacious and as criminal an act will be yet another form of robbery by the banks to get swept under the rug? I speculate it will end up in the Supreme Court where the controlled justices will rule in favor of the banks and in the interest of national security. Upon that ruling, all hell breaks loose.

 
Economic Calendar -

Earnings Calendar - GOOG Thursday.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - New POMO schedule is announced today I believe. HOW EXCITING!

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.


30yr treasury - Possible HnS about to breakdown. Measures nicely to the 61% retracement.

SPX 60m - It does not look like it can go any higher, but with 4 of the next six days being POMO days you never know.

SPX weekly descending triangle theory - I'm still thinking this could be our form.

Minis came within a point of their highs. We may possibly be seeing a double top here. I highly doubt that as the bears have to show up in mass and bring 1,000 truckloads of volume with them. 4 of the next 6 trading  days are POMO days. That is scary if you are a bear. Golden cross yesterday vs. the daily MACD overbought and trying to bear cross - that is a conundrum. QEII, POMO and the elections, same thing I have been preaching since the turn at 1040. Sounds nuts, but it has been the precise call. Waiting on THE catalyst to put the final nail in their coffin. Flash crash II is coming (and so will III, IV, V and so on).



GL out there and have a great weekend.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

With a new POMO schedule in our back pocket we can now go about the rest of our journey into the election with more confidence that the RAMPant manipulation will continue despite the rapidly deteriorating global economic conditions. With a POMO day Friday and then three next week, attempting to call some sort of top here is a fools game. Maybe they throw the bears a bone. Yeah, just long enough to suck a few more shorts to squeeze. Even when the blackjack dealer is plating with a rigged boot he has to throw a hand or two to the table to keep them in the game. That may be all the bears get. Topping conditions are ripe to say the least with daily indicators being embedded for over a month now.

Economic Calendar -

Earnings Calendar - GOOG Thursday.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - New POMO schedule is announced today I believe. HOW EXCITING!

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.

Minis daily -  Slightly overbought. Wedge ending. Backtesting the first (green dashed) wedge support line. Orange channel parallels the larger gray dashed one off the 665 lows. At light pink diagonal off the Sept '09 lows. 1175 resistance was not much (nor was 30 or 50). There may just be to many technical points for them to not have to observe some sort of corrective here.

 SPX Daily - Wedge, overbought, upper BB, green arrows are all support levels.

I'm not sure how much time we should waist on figuring this thing out anymore. Rigged? I think we're all finally in agreement on that fact. To those looking to see if I will call a top, you will have to wait. I appreciate the spike in traffic yesterday, but I did not bite. Sadly, I have to be honest and say that this top will be harder to nail than the April one or any of the previous simply because the manipulation factor has increased 10x.

FOUR of the next SEVEN trading days are POMO days. Throw in some cooked up earnings numbers and DOW 15,000 should be just around the corner (that was a joke - not a call). As I have been saying since Ben spoke and pulled the markets from the event horizon at 1040, the promise of QE II, POMO and the elections will have us all in limbo till 11/03. then all bets are off. They may throw us bears a bone, but only a puppy sized one if any.

IF, IF it should begin to let go (which it more than rightfully deserves), form of the fall will be key. Volume and impulse selling will tell you if it is real or not. the first hint we get of that, and then I will take the leash off of all the bears I have been holding back. Catalyst? You all know I am all about that one final event that rips control from the establishment.

Upside potential? Now that my 75 limit has been reached (and passed) I have no clue. 86 is the magical number to invalidate all EWT counts (which I hate EWT and do not prescribe to it and if it should pass 86 and then fall they will just change the rules). Technically the weekly charts are where we chae to turn now and they are somewhat overbought. I honestly think there is a real chance that all technical and fundamental analysis is busted at this point.

Downside potential? Pay attention to form. Impulse selling with volume. that will be the key. till that happens it will be more of the same old thing. All those green support arrows on the daily chart above are all realistic support points.

So, no top call yet. I came close yesterday. I DO believe that was some sort of blow off top, but how many of those and how many divergences has this bull run ripped to shreds? Maybe we need to get thru GOOG tonight and a POMO day tomorrow, but then THREE POMO DAYS next week? This is getting a bit ridiculous.

On The Dark Side I post is all real time it you are interested.

GL and take care.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Morning - JPM and INTC please the gods with their earnings reports.Futures not all that giddy holding under long term resistance (for now). Good thing I'm still asleep or I'd have some choice words for yet ANOTHER revenue miss and all those trading gains.

Economic Calendar -

Earnings Calendar - GOOG Thursday.
Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - New POMO schedule is announced today I believe. HOW EXCITING!

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.

Something tells me I better call a top soon. Running out of time for sure. Like playing chicken with a semi in a tunnel at this point. 

Minis Daily - Indicators in these positions the last two times generated minimum 100 point corrections.

Minis 4hrs off the April highs. The various forms and S/R over time are pretty clear in this chart.

4hr  close up - The wedge.

GL today.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Let the games begin as earnings season gets ramped up. INTC should beat revised numbers easily after hours and then JPM with a little help from REPO 105 (and numerous other crutches) should meet or beat in the morning. This is not the time to think the accounting standards are going to change to make things tougher. Hell, we all know the SEC is a worthless pile of dung (unless you are some small time player that has no pull, then you get skewered and roticreized). Regulation? Ha! I laugh at you! This country is in no shape to regulate anything right now. Why the heck do you think the markets are so correlated? The markets will fall sooner than later, and it will not be pretty when they do.

Economic Calendar - Hoenig goes at 11:45 which could be interesting. 2:00 are the FOMC minutes which may release the new POMO schedule.

Earnings Calendar - INTC Tuesday after the close. JPM Wednesday before the open. GOOD Thursday.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - Tomorrow the new POMO schedule is announced. HOW EXCITING!

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.

You have no idea how hard it is for me not to be calling for a turn here technically. Looking at the markets and trying to determine where we are is more challenging than ever. One might ask why because they are rigged and will only go up. How hard is that, right? TA (when operating in a non-rigged environment) has a funny way of working even when you think all hope is lost. A wedge is a wedge and when indicators get overbought and price begins to consolidate, someone is gonna start taking profits sooner than later. The problem with that is the fact that the BD's are simply passing the hot potato and are under mandate not to sell anything and to only bid the markets up. As the markets eagerly await QE  II and more POMO injections the smart money is betting on the team playing with the rigged boot that dispenses an ace every time it needs one.

SPX Daily - All those green arrows are support. The pink arrow is TNX which sits near 1010 SPX. This disconnect should be resolved eventually. Overbought? You tell me.

SPX 60m - No words necessary to describe this chart. Targets are the two green boxes. They may not be good ones though, cause after SPX takes out that gap at 25 there is not much to stop it till 1040.

Gold - I suggest you look at THIS chart and THIS chart. The HnS (formed '08 thru early '09) target has been met.

Dollar compared to SPX, Oil, Gold and TNX - Slightly screwed up if you ask me. I think the dollar corrects to the 40ma near 80 and that's it. IMHO anyone that has the dollar finishing a corrective here and think it is about to explode (All the EWT people) are on crack.

Who is telling the bigger lie? The countries with the biggest debt and higher market prices or the other two that we owe all the money to with lower market prices?

Under normal conditions I would say fall. Under normal conditions I would say we're about to crash. I can't go there. If it does and I am wrong, so be it. Just like in April when everyone was calling tops and the EWT counters were dropping like flies, still I'm holding course. Yes, it is going to come down one day. It may even fall faster than gravity allows. Till we get the catalyst and the BD's to start the cannibalization process the markets will remain under the control of the Fed.

Yes, the top may have been set yesterday. Lets see if it can begin a controlled descent here to the 40/45 area to that blue line on the 60m chart and form a HEAD and then put in a RS with a lower high (as a failed backtest of the wedge) and then let go (this would work even better if I could get one last spike to my upper range near 75). I have preached form of the fall as a key and to look for impulsive selling. Be patient and let the trade come to you. There will be plenty of entry points for many years when this all collapses. Pigs get slaughtered.

The POMO schedule is due to be released tomorrow, but it may come today. Look out for that. Should be like pigs lining up at the trough when that is released.

GL and have a great day.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Columbus Day holiday. Should be low volume quiet day. It is all about the QEII announcement and nothing happens till then unless something blows up. 

Economic Calendar -

Earnings Calendar - INTC Tuesday after the close and JPM Wednesday before the open.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - No Mo POMO That does not mean they are gonna send the PPT packing. "The next release of the approximate purchase amount and tentative outright Treasury operation schedule will be at 2 p.m. on October 13, 2010. "

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.

Will yet another divergence get sent packing? The bears are not gonna like it if this things breaks the upper wedge resistance line and resets it higher. Turning an E touch into a C touch would be just rude. The bears appear to be close (appear being the key word there). A-E wedge appears to be ending. I expect a throwover to the 1175 at best for this run up. The dailys have ben overbought for over a month now. They can stay that way (as it appears they will) for a long time as long as this rigged market remains bought up by the Fed and BD's controlling all the action.

SPX, USB, TNX and VIX comparison chart.

Dollar/SPX comparison chart -

Tops and bottoms chart - Just an interesting look at the conditions that caused each top and bottom and where we are today. Chart is best viewed HERE.

Have a great Columbus day. It gets busy especially after tomorrow. GL!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Its really all about QEII or not to QEII. That is the question. That is all that matters. Do we trow trillions more at the problem and go deeper in debt extending and pretending waiting on some magical recovery, or do we simply take our medicine and deflate the credit bubble now? Either way, it busts. The sooner the better. The "economists" did not see the tech or RE or credit bubble. Now when the Fed is about to become the US's largest holder of treasuries, we're about to throw another trillion at the problem, there is a slight jobs issue that the markets seem to ignore like it is no big deal and they can't see this ultimate threat either? And the definition of insanity is?

Economic Calendar - Wholesale trade at 10 and that's it.

Earnings Calendar - INTC Tuesday

Pivot Points - Like they make a difference?

POMO Schedule - No Mo POMO That does not mean they are gonna send the PPT packing. "The next release of the approximate purchase amount and tentative outright Treasury operation schedule will be at 2 p.m. on October 13, 2010. "

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.


SPX Daily - This chart should be topping. It should have an undeniable divergence that any normal market would respect. Everything points to a top here (especially without POMO around now). Upside potential? Well I have been looking to the possibility of 1175. The bulls get a mega pop and then markets churn for a week till the next mega pop (usually on bad data which further strengthens the possibility of QE II). The bulls next big hope happens on 10/13 when the next POMO schedule is released. Downside potential? Well that is limitless, but near term 30 and the 200dma are about all we should expect till the election/FOMC QE II announcement on 11/03. 

At this point I'm inclined to say the market churns in the 1170 to 1130 range till the QE II announcement. This no longer has anything to to with anything but the QE II announcement. there is no telling what earnings will have in store (the hurdle is still quite low as revisions and lack of respect for lowered revenues is quite amazing). I have been speaking of the promise of QEII since Ben opened his mouth to bring the market off the 1040 lows. Every single penny of appreciation since that point is purely QE II speculation and POMO pump, nothing else.



GL out there and have a great weekend.