Friday, March 23, 2012
Morning Market Summary and Charts 03/23/12 #SPX $ES
After last Friday we entered a quiet period for news. All the global economic issues were put to bed. Carry on good sheeple. All the terrific issues and build up to solve another crisis (with the corresponding market melt up) were taken care of via CTRL+P and the stroke of a few newly created unsecured digital dollars. Well just a week later here we are again.
Zero Hedge (as usual) has been posting the daily death knoll but no one of any influence can seem to hear the truth. "Yesterday we discussed extensively how the narrative of US decoupling, which has so far trumped everything else, is finally fading, is coming to an abrupt end, and with no other "plotline" to take its place, as China, Europe and corporate profits are all in the dumps, the only option is for more easy money to come soon. However, with crude sticky this will be a problem in an election year. Today, this sentiment has become even more acute as new Greek 2023 bonds have for the first time trade over 20%, with weakness spreading to all the other PIIGS, and talk of yet another LTRO already picking up pace." Selloff Resumes As "Risk Off" Sentiment Refuses To Leave | ZeroHedge
"More easy money to come soon" ahhh, the constantly reoccurring and only solution that exists. If you missed Geitner's testimony the other day and did not see this in the AD last night please watch Geithner Asked What Would Be Very Last Debt Ceiling Request; Says "A Lot, Would Make You Feel Uncomfortable" | RealClearPolitics.
And some wonder why I am so damn boring (but right). Patience, form and follow the Fed. It is all about the printing. It is all about liquidity. Are you getting tired of me talking about the market being and "illusion? Are you tired of hearing me discuss liquidity every day? I'm sorry, but nothing else matters. NOTHING traditional is real anymore. The markets are 100% rigged and then some. I do believe TA will get the answer right. It has with the last two tops, as they timed the end of QE1 and QE2 and now it will time the end of Twist (or QE3 by another name).
I gave you the April '10 top and the June and November '11 crashes on a silver platter. This top is a bit different as the crisis is reaching crescendo proportions. The question has become, can the Fed stop easing here or not? Can they take a break, let the markets drop 20%, set up another short squeeze and then ramp the markets one last time (that will be the LAST time if they can), OR do they infuse the markets here and just go for the super ramp in the election year?
The odds of a temporary or THE top being set here are very good. As we all have learned by this point (and if you have not you need to walk away and quit trading) you do not short into a liquidity pump - it is suicide. I preach patience, having a plan, using stops and scalping instead of swinging shorts. No matter how good something looks you are playing against a rigged deck. Until the all clear signal is given, you simply have to watch in wonder and amazement as the impossible occurs over and over again and wait it out or ride it up.
SPX 60m - This is the best I got - see the two (of the three) potential head and shoulders I am following. Green boxes are the target areas.
Minis 60m - I know TA still works cause I use this chart every day to call the moves with a pretty remarkable degree of accuracy (if you doubt that statement ask the commenters below). Let's see if price can get to the blue support areas near 1375 today. There is still a shot at a backtest of 1400, but that looks unlikely at this point. 1382.5 is the low we're looking to break.
I'm still looking for a catalyst to rally break this market south. Thanks for another record week on the blog and all your support. Please feel free to share the ling via twitter, email or any other method to help get the news out that we are being fleeced and losing control of our government.
Have a great weekend.
GL and GB!