Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Morning Market Summary and Charts 03/13/12 $ES #SPX

FOMC day! Expect nothing other than the recycled 'we have ZIRP and tools and will use them if necessary' mumbo jumbo that markets just love. The promise of QE to the markets is like that hot tease you went out with in high school (ladies, reverse this thought). Smoking hot, tight sweaters and jeans that fit just right, looking good and you were gonna get a piece. You kept on pursuing it to almost no end.

Well, in this case when you finally got that piece after a year or so of promises and tease, the build up to the big event brought only total disappointment as you find that she's not all that and a bag of chips once the veil comes off (add your own disappointing thoughts here). She winds up costing way too much money and for a year has bled your finances dry. A total waste of time for something that looked so good. That will be the final release of QE, a severely disappointing event.

In any event we must worship at the QE altar. It is the market. It rules all. We've been reduced to a global economy that is increasingly dependent on more and more stimulus. Without government intervention everything would collapse (not that it is not going to collapse anyway). I suggest you read Balestra Capital: "If Government Programs Were Cancelled, The Economy Would Collapse Back Into Severe Recession" | ZeroHedge which does some justice to that point, but really only scrapes the mold and crust off the loaf of lies that everything that is 'financial' these days.

Dollar - That yellow channel started a year ago off the $72 lows and has three touches on both the top and bottom diagonals. I'm not sure how you trade or trust the movements in fiat, but you have to follow it as (somehow) it remains the global currency of choice.

EUR/USD - The inverse channel and support is waning. the big number is 1.26 at that green support diagonal off the '02 lows. We've seen some really stupid things that defy all rational and you should expect more that support the EUR. It will crash and implode one day as the euro zone falters.

Oil - Trying to break out - those evil speculators are at it again. This has nothing to do with the dollar (Pelosi promises).

Gold - That yellow channel goes back to the 10/08 743 low. It has pretty much ruled the lower end since. $1640 is where yellow channel support lies. the lower white diag is near $1590. Then there is support near $1480. I would be surprised to see that yellow support go. Price still may want a backtest of that busted green resistance diag. that would be something to look for in the support areas mentioned.

Silver - Looked like it wanted to break out last week, but instead gave a nice head fake at channel and LT diagonal resistance (pink). That pink diag has been upper resistance since '04. It should be a tough nut to crack. That yellow support diag goes back to '08 and may act as your ultimate buy trigger.

FOMC Meeting Chart - You know I love it and here we are. We rode it all year and hopefully we don;t have to rife it till the April meeting (which will be a biggie as that is when the Fed does their annual forecast). That wedge is pretty nasty.

Minis - At this time I'm now working off 2 recent channels two s/r diags and multiple s/r points all with price right under the 1377 top. This is a mess (as it should be up here) Stay tuned in the comments section and be on guard for the Fed's notes and the markets reaction. It is pointless to speculate at this point. STB is leaning to some sort of weakness. Patience and form folks we got a nasty double top with diverging indicators. this puppy is ready to fall. We just have to wait on the crony corrupt system to allow the market to breathe.

GL and GB!

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