Thursday, May 17, 2012

Morning Charts 05/17/12 #SPX /ES

Denial (no, not that river in Egypt) is everywhere and the MSM cover up of the financial shell shocking events and turmoil around the globe right now is appalling. Thank goodness for the internet (while we still have it) and for those that actively report, research and share the truth. How else would we know the truth about just how bad the JPM losses are or that the bank runs in Greece and now Spain are very real?

Denial also happens with individual investors. Even STB hits a wall every now and then where the Rubicon is hard to cross. Reality bites now and it is going to get worse. Psychologically we crawl into our protective little shells and work to avoid the misery. Are we collectively ignoring the doomsday events we've all been cognizant of for years?

We've been so conditioned to expect the stick save and ramp. Markets are a bit confusing right now because the old 'tricks' that were guaranteed ramp starters like the FOMC minutes leaning towards easing or an LTRO3 discussion we had yesterday are not flaming the bull's fires anymore. Has reality sprung its trap. Is the realization that the euro zone and the euro experiment is really dying finally starting to sink in?

FB prices today and sells tomorrow. OPEX Thursday as well.

EUR/USD - WINNER WINNER chicken dinner for STB! WOOP! WOOP! WOOP! $1.266 and LT green diag support gets hit on the pair. HnS target is met. Now, can it get even worse? You all know that the powers that be know this level exists and should try and defend it. Below here the sell stops should be firmly in place. Most LT readers of STB know that I still have a final $1.16 target left to be hit. I'm not sure about any others that have been more spot on on the call of this pair than STB.

Dollar - another higher high as price approaches blue channel resistance near $82. Interesting point with the EUR/USD pair at LT support. The dollar can run to the $87 area before it meets LT resistance off the '07 highs.

Oil - Trending down still. Next major support is near $85 and then $74. If that pink support goes another nasty spill (no pun intended) should be in order.

Gold - about to possibly backtest busted blue channel support and trading just above pink channel support under LT busted yellow and white channel support (which should want a backtest as well. There is a possible point near $1633 where that may occur). The 1522 December low has held for now.

Silver - That yellow support is off the '08 lows. the $27.50 level of support goes back to '11 and has held every major move south since (3x). The green channel (off the April 2010 $49 top) down is dominating trade. Silver is at a major point where it needs to hold support and break out of that green channel. If not the $19 level could possibly be the next stop as there is a massive air pocket under price here.

SPX Daily - Well, so much for those divergences that had formed and welcome truly oversold conditions. About the only thing that is normal these days is as the dollar climbs and the TNX falls (1.77) the market is falling as well. This chart is fugly. As noted the HnS breakdown targets the 1300 area and that is where my second target lies for this move south. Once 1341 cracked one has no other choice but to buy into a move to that level and the 38% retracement that lies there. Ha, and this may still be only the beginning of something much larger. Remember my original thoughts ended at 1170 for this move (that is where the Fed will be forced to ease again).

Minis 30m - That red diag is the old first resistance diag off the '07 and '11 tops. After the crack of 1341 the next stop prognosticated here was 1312 and then the 1300 to 295 area.

Minis 1m with VWAP - That was a rippin move to 1316 that pummeled the lower (yellow) Vband. Green is first resistance. the PPT made on heck of a move to recapture the VWAP (red) and the 1m 200ma (white) this morning.

Have a great day!

GL and GB!

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