Thursday, December 17, 2009

Violated AGAIN?

Getting violated is bad enough, even if it happens once. How would you feel if you got violated four times? Well, most of you bears know how it feels cause this has actually happened to you. How many times can a lower trendlines get reset? I have no idea. I could not find it in any TA book I have. Why an I talking about violation? No, I'm into some weird stuff, but don't go there. It is because the lower P2/bull market support TL has now been violated for the 4th time on this massive bull run. Count 'em.

 In a different light, let's look at it from a series of TOS charts. First, the whole bull run. Pay close attention to that lower blue TL.

 A little closer. Here you pick up a better view of the wedge we're in completing the C wave of the bull run of P2.

 And the drill down. See that Marobozu candle from today closing below the blue support line? That is yet another bearish move. That is the 4th violation. Notice the red dashed line thru the middle? That was the first support line. The black TL coming in from the top is the Bear market top line. Bottom line is that it violated the lower TL for a 4th time. I'm not sure how much more of this can go on. The weekly indicators are overbought and appear to be topping (MACD is just about to cross which is a confirming move in my book), the dailys as you can see in these charts have some large divergences and the monthly RSI is tolling and turning. I won't go into all of the great news that is keeping the market afloat in this post (that was a joke). I have been in disbelief for a long time, but now I'm beginning to feel violated.

GL and happy holidays.