Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Morning Post

Good morning!

SPX 15m -  The boom, boom, boom chart from Sunday. Fib targets, supprt and resistance, the gap and the fibs are viewed really well on this chart. Let's see if the trend holds and if GWLK (BSLS) likes it better today? The 60m looks as toppy as this chart, but the daily may be telling a different story. It needs to turn here or soon for the bears.

Gold daily - decided to take an $8 plunge last night. I am not sure if that is a channel down (green) or not, but I drew it as one. I backed the chart out so you can see the support levels better. Green, sky blue and gray lower TL's are all valid. The yellow line is the 38% retracement off of the 809 low and may be the ultimate target for a meaningful pullback at 1066.

Dollar 1hr - You can see the breakout of the pink falling wedge that led the bull market. I am not positive that the proper backtest has occurred. The gray wedge form is ending and a pullback would be in order. Is the green TL a target ot the blue one? How will the markets react to the dollar correcting this move? Will the somewhat broken correlation correct, or are they somewhat independent now? The retracement levels from here off of the 74.17 low are 38% - 75.97, 50% - 75.66 and 61.8% - 75.34.

EUR/JPY daily - Seems to have found a happy place for now around 128.50 as it either remains range bound or as the gray falling wedge plays out.

Oil daily - I updated all of the energy sector in my chartbook yesterday and there looked to be some potential technical buys in there. With oil futures possibly holding the bottom of this channel (MACD hist turning up and RSI as well) maybe there is something to look at here. XOM on weakness from the deal yesterday might be worth keeping on the radar as well.

Natgas daily - just slightly taking out the upper resistance. Now, this can be stretched a little higher, a real breakout may be happening. I'm not all that convinced, but it is possible. gray boxes are gaps and the yellow rectangle is the retracement zone from 3.91 to 3.56. 

GL today and happy holidays.