Wednesday, December 9, 2009

EUR/USD Breakdown (In Pictures!)

Long term - the pink channel starts off of the low in 2001. Pay close attention to that lower channel line and how it works thru to this years backtest of the breakdown in the sky blue wedge. On this monthly chart you can see a nice roll over in S Sto and RSI and it appears MACD just could not get it up and is petering out.Notice the fist pullback to a near perfect 50% retracement ( the gray rectangle is the 50 to 62% retracement zone). Also notice the yellow dashed TL incorporating the two lows and then the green dashed TL that is drawn off of the previous lows from '00 and '02.

Now for a medium term look at this same chart. Here you can see the yellow dashed TL picking up the bottoms which should serve as ultimate support here near 1.31 (I do not think that will hold as I'm thinking the green TL in the chart above is the ticket). You can clearly see the sky blue wedge backtesting the pink channel and stopping near the 1.50 resistance point. Is that a 2 wave corrective?

Now to drill into the action on a weekly view. IMO if you combine the indicators from the monthly chart with those on this weekly chart you get a recipe for disaster. On this chart you have nasty divergences on S Sto and RSI. That MACD bear cross and HIST going negative does not look good either. Include the breakdown of the sky blue rising wedge at the backtest of the major bull channel and that just adds to the misery. For the $1.24 low to $1.51 high the heavy yellow line is the 38% fib at 1.41. The retracement zone is from1.38 to 1.35. The support line you see is at 1.34 and then the yellow TL catching both major bottoms is at 1.31. Let's not forget the lower green TL near 1.04! You can clearly see a nice red weekly candle poking out the bottom of the blue wedge.

So there you have it. The analysis of the breakdown of the EUR/USD. No turning back from here. This one has been set in motion. the targets are above. I can not determine any time frames at this time. I did leave out one TL and the possibility of this being a massive H&S formation with us forming the right shoulder now. The target for that would be somewhere near $.90. Neckline is the last two lows. Ouch if that is right.

GL out there and happy holidays.