Tuesday, December 1, 2009

E-minis Now (And Some Long Term Stuff - Call It A Chart-o-rama)

/ES - Daily - Blue wedge is the P2 bull market rising wedge that price is obeying. Black TL coming down is the bear market top line. Pink is the old gap from 1107 tp 1109 that seems to be the resistance point. Green is the new support line IMO. I hate the look of that hook up in the indicators that stopped dead what should have been a good run to the bottom for the indicators (can you say PPT?). E-minis within one half of a point of a double top (or new high) this hour.

/ES 60m - See the action in the blue wedge and resistance at the pink line. 60m indicators are topping here. That combined with the resistance and double top might be cause for a reversal. Of course the dailys will have to whipsaw for this to happen.

/ES weekly so you can see the bigger picture. I do not (as a bear) like that busted divergence line on the RSI. I believe P3 begins at or near the break of the gray trendline below RSI.Notice how overbought the weekly indicators are. It is only a matter of time before they let go. Looks like MACD will be the most reliable indicator.

DXY weekly - So what is supposed to happen when a falling wedge ends and the indicators are all oversold and have been for months? LOL, this chart looks like UNG - that's not all that funny when you think about it.

A picture tells 1,000 words. What happens when the dollar falls? That would be TNX, SPX, Oil and Gold up and dollar down. Hmmm....you think the inverse is true? Watch for a crack in that 40ma.


Want to see a nasty divergence? Look at RSI in this SPX yearly chart. Uh, yup, no one saw this fall coming. LOL. Now, is that a yearly hammer bouncing off of support and the 20ma? Not sure. Those indicators look like crap. MACD just now getting the bear cross from the run up since 1980. It's got a little steam to blow off yet. This is NOT a pretty chart if you are a bull.Dig where that lower BB is. Ouchie!

Now, before you bears start jumping around and ripping your clothes off in a fit of joy after looking at that last chart (GWLK -pls send photos this comment does not apply to you), you have to survive this next one - SPX Monthly. Those indicators need some work to turn. The weeklys are set to help with this process.

No post tonight as I will be holding up street signs again and then coaching basketball and finally decorating a tree - then sleeping. I might get the Look Into The Futures post done. Thanks for the views and happy holidays.