Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Morning Post

Fed day today. Ya think they are gonna surprise and raise rates? I doubt it. With 1mo treasuries yielding zero and the equity markets the only play in town where any money can be made, why screw up a good thing? (ghood thing for whom can be debated) They will have to raise them eventually, but I'm not going to hold my breath. CPI and housing numbers are being spun on CNBS. So are you in the deflation of inflation camp? I think we deflate first with some signs of specific pricing pressures that eventually leads to inflation. Its like having a bad tooth that you know needs to be extracted, but you don't want to face the surgery. You deal with the pain and deal with the pain, yet eventually you will have to go under the knife.

SPX daily- I just do not know what it will take to get this market out of this trading range. BB width is 29. That is under 30 folks. That is 15 up or 15 down is all you are theoretically gonna get. Narrow BB's usually lead to volatility, so I still expect a breakout one way or the other. CCI may have topped and RSI stopped at the blue divergence line. Now RSI is running in a range between the 50 line as support and the upper divergence lines getting pinched down. I'm not sure how long it can stay in this range. At this time I'm leaning to a push south to the 1085 level.

SPX 60m - This chart says fall, but I would caution bears to look out for the 1103 level where the 50ma and the lower BB sit. If that cracks the bears may be in business.See my 15m chart for the most detail on fibs, TLs and S/R.

E- minis - Up 4.5 at this time and were as high as 1112 overnight. Currently 1108. Trading at the upper end near resistance of the upper resistance line of the past few weeks and backtesting the lower P2 support line. So that should be a double doozie.

DXY - Ending a rising wedge and should rollover here. The daily indicators are getting pretty toppy.

Oil - If you look at the chart I showed yesterday am, you will see the lower channel line held and there is a good chance it is going to pop from here. I'll do an energy post today I think.

Natgas - /NG futures have moved above NT resistance, but will that move hold? Indicators are a little toppy with a divergence in RSI showing upside should be limited from here. I'll get a UNG post out soon.

/ZN 10yr treauries futures - looks like an ABC corrective is just about complete and the daily indicators are about to show some buy signals.

EUR/USD continues to fall and has taken out all support lines I have. Daily indicators are embedding on the low end. I think the 1.51 high is set.

EUR/JPY - Holding the 128.50 support. We'll know more in January when it nears it's upper TL.

Inflation? Frozen Concentrated OJ - No there has not been a big freeze. Like I said- It will and is happening in specific areas, thus not the perfect storm. This chart demonstrates there is some inflation out there.

GL out there and happy holidays.