Monday, December 21, 2009

Morning Post

Christmas week and with me skiing in Colorado next week there is no telling what you will get from me between now and the end of the year. If something happens, I'll be here. If not, I'll be enjoying the holidays. You should too! We got Xmas kicked off early and the kids got some big presents from the family - GUNS! That's right, 28 gauge single shot shotguns. (My boys are 7 and 9). We shot all weekend and should be able to have them ready to defend the southern border of the homestead by mid summer if necessary.

The dollar is channeling, but is RSI on the daily chart getting tired? No divergence yet. I know gaps show up all over the place on a daily chart of the dollar and are not that noteable, but this one back on 9/4 was to me and it is just about closed.

A closer look at the dollar's channel on a 60m chart. 

SPX last year at this time. Traded is a 100pt range for most of December till that late pop, but notice how it just fell back into the trading range for most of January, before it let go. I really hate thost that look at stuff and say "It did this then so it may/should do this now". That was a bear market and this is a bull market. Quickly eyeballing January over the last 10 years, it tends to be a down to flat month.

I'll look at more stuff later if necessary. Gold daily appears to be getting support from it's 50ma. Oil is in an uptrend. Natgas breakout is in pause mode right now with RSI sitting near a spot where past price reversals have happened. EUR/JPY is near support and just above a 50% retracement level. EUR/USD is at a LT support level and just above the 38% retracement level at 1.4121.

That is all for now. Go get your shopping done and have a cocktail or two. Enjoy the season and remember the reason for the season.

GL and happy holidays.