Thursday, October 21, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Minis set a higher high, but pulled back after striking the upper wedge resistance. Jobs, CAT and MCD are all good, but minis only up 5? Maybe there is something larger hanging over the markets? No POMO today.Dollar is basically flat after falling yesterday.

Economic Calendar - Jobless Claims Fall From Another Upwardly Revised Number

Earnings Calendar - Earnings info here at MarketWatch Earnings Summary HERE.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - NO POMO today but we do have one Friday!

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action. 

SPX Daily - I think the wedge is busted for now and a larger retrace is in order. Given the MACD bear cross here and other conditions I don;t see how (other than POMO and other intervention) it can remain elevated here. This does not mean that "the" top is set as the QEII announcement may spur one last rush and then the odds of POMO for years to come as the bots simply stuff bids and pass shares around keep the markets in their levitated state (even if all the financials get wiped out with foreclosuregate and the MBS fraud). Who needs stinking financials when you have AAPL and NFLX.

Here is the post I did on The Dark Side

Minis topped (so far) at the upper wedge resistance line and pulled back even after the jobs report supposedly surprised. If all this positive news only has the minis up 5, I view that as incredibly weak. Apparently our counting of the 3 corrective to 62.5 low was it. and we should finish a 5 up this morning. The big question is does price break out to new highs, does it remain in this range or does it finally have some sort of meaningful retracement? This wedge action is undeniable, but an overthrow (even a significant one) is still possible but doubtful as there is not much wedge left and the daily MACD has gone in bear mode. I still worry about that 1200 level just above but really think this is the top at or near this level.

Dollar falling again. Not sure with where the USD/JPY pair is that they can allow it to fall much farther. 

CAT and MCD beat and the minis set a higher high. All praise POMO, the promise of QE II and lowered earnings estimates. When the fact that all this growth, that is the reflation trade, ramped by nothing more than fiat currency, zero interest rates and sensational amounts of debt is finally realized, the pain will finally set in.

Minis 60m - The pattern is plain to see. Range bound rectangles and ramps.The question is are we about to turn 80 resistance into support and move into a new range from 80 to 00?
Here the trend is back to 1040 levels. They cycle fairly well and they measure nicely. You are witnessing an artificial controlled and measured ramping of the markets.
If the markets get a good whiff of 2000 level that would only make sense to be the next 20 point range to travel into. Guess what is 20 points past that? QEII and POMO and the fact that they MUST at all costs keep the markets afloat means this charade will continue until someone somewhere calls shenanigans on the Fed and administration. It is totally awesome that they can do this to support the global elite all the while shifting wealth and future tax obligations to them as well. God bless America. As investors we need to do as they say, "follow the money". Sadly this appears to be the only reliable trade till it all implodes.