Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

It is a POMO day. The last one on this schedule. I'm not really sure what to say anymore as the markets have become more predictable than Barry behind a teleprompter. Bad news, bad earnings it does not matter, hell we could have a nuke go off somewhere in the US and the markets would fucking rally because they are fucking rigged and running solely on the promise of QEII. I'm due for a good rant. I'll save the rest of the bitching for the post market.

Economic Calendar - ADP Plunges To -39K, Well Below Expectations Of +20K

Earnings Calendar - MON surprisingly missed by a mile. PEP after hours and AA in the AM.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - Today is the last day of QE Lite. That does not mean they are gonna send the PPT packing. "The next release of the approximate purchase amount and tentative outright Treasury operation schedule will be at 2 p.m. on October 13, 2010. "

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.

Does it really matter what the charts say anymore? (NO). Do fundamentals matter? (NO) As long as the Fed and treasury are monetizing debt and funneling those funds to support the markets, as long as trading and liquidity are a farce, as long as they continue to devalue the dollar (yes, I think it will have a 4 handle before it is all over and will lose its precious gold standard of currency status) and as long as the SEC do not enforce any rules the manipulators are running the asylum.

Minis 1m - here is the markets reaction to a dismal APD number and a MON miss - 6 points! WOW! Is the world coming to an end? A 60k miss and that's it? All that matters now is the promise of unlimited amounts of the Oxycodone market elixir otherwise known as QE II.

I have now been reduced to two morning forecasts -

Reality - The promise of QE II is now everything. DOW 11,000 is just around the corner. Expect that to be hit and held thru the election and for all the bells and whistles to go off as they try and sucker all the trillions out of gold back into the markets. POMO ramps are real and can not be disputed.

Fantasy - I would have called a top yesterday or today under normal market conditions. C=A, possible black channel formation and price consolidating in the top of the wedge for a E touch or a backtest (depending on where the real support line is) with overbought blow off conditions all make for a lovely top. This should be ending the ABC 2nd wave of 2 of 1 of P3 and the fall today or tomorrow should be really interesting as the third wave kicks off. 940 SPX target with a backtest of the old bear market resistance line in late October should be the target.  HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. That's funny - fugedaboutit!

QE II rules. It is all about manipulation. Pay not attention to gold at 1351 or silver at 23. Oil on a 10 point ramp int he last two weeks, no beg deal. The dollar? Yen? Employment? Debt? 100 year bonds? Shall I continue? This market has no business being where it is and when it falls it will look like an implosion falling at the speed of gravity.As for me, I'll continue trading the only reliable time frames (1 and 5m chart) and waiting on my catalyst. We'll all know when to get out. It will be painfully obvious. For those of you waiting to short, keep waiting. Don't worry about nailing the top. You'll have plenty of time to get in on the action.As I used to say - Konichiwa bitches! welcome to the new Japan (and that is being optimistic).

GL out there.