Thursday, October 14, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

With a new POMO schedule in our back pocket we can now go about the rest of our journey into the election with more confidence that the RAMPant manipulation will continue despite the rapidly deteriorating global economic conditions. With a POMO day Friday and then three next week, attempting to call some sort of top here is a fools game. Maybe they throw the bears a bone. Yeah, just long enough to suck a few more shorts to squeeze. Even when the blackjack dealer is plating with a rigged boot he has to throw a hand or two to the table to keep them in the game. That may be all the bears get. Topping conditions are ripe to say the least with daily indicators being embedded for over a month now.

Economic Calendar -

Earnings Calendar - GOOG Thursday.

Pivot Points -

POMO Schedule - New POMO schedule is announced today I believe. HOW EXCITING!

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action.

Minis daily -  Slightly overbought. Wedge ending. Backtesting the first (green dashed) wedge support line. Orange channel parallels the larger gray dashed one off the 665 lows. At light pink diagonal off the Sept '09 lows. 1175 resistance was not much (nor was 30 or 50). There may just be to many technical points for them to not have to observe some sort of corrective here.
 SPX Daily - Wedge, overbought, upper BB, green arrows are all support levels.
I'm not sure how much time we should waist on figuring this thing out anymore. Rigged? I think we're all finally in agreement on that fact. To those looking to see if I will call a top, you will have to wait. I appreciate the spike in traffic yesterday, but I did not bite. Sadly, I have to be honest and say that this top will be harder to nail than the April one or any of the previous simply because the manipulation factor has increased 10x.

FOUR of the next SEVEN trading days are POMO days. Throw in some cooked up earnings numbers and DOW 15,000 should be just around the corner (that was a joke - not a call). As I have been saying since Ben spoke and pulled the markets from the event horizon at 1040, the promise of QE II, POMO and the elections will have us all in limbo till 11/03. then all bets are off. They may throw us bears a bone, but only a puppy sized one if any.

IF, IF it should begin to let go (which it more than rightfully deserves), form of the fall will be key. Volume and impulse selling will tell you if it is real or not. the first hint we get of that, and then I will take the leash off of all the bears I have been holding back. Catalyst? You all know I am all about that one final event that rips control from the establishment.

Upside potential? Now that my 75 limit has been reached (and passed) I have no clue. 86 is the magical number to invalidate all EWT counts (which I hate EWT and do not prescribe to it and if it should pass 86 and then fall they will just change the rules). Technically the weekly charts are where we chae to turn now and they are somewhat overbought. I honestly think there is a real chance that all technical and fundamental analysis is busted at this point.

Downside potential? Pay attention to form. Impulse selling with volume. that will be the key. till that happens it will be more of the same old thing. All those green support arrows on the daily chart above are all realistic support points.

So, no top call yet. I came close yesterday. I DO believe that was some sort of blow off top, but how many of those and how many divergences has this bull run ripped to shreds? Maybe we need to get thru GOOG tonight and a POMO day tomorrow, but then THREE POMO DAYS next week? This is getting a bit ridiculous.

On The Dark Side I post is all real time it you are interested.

GL and take care.