Thursday, July 29, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

11:45 UPDATE - Hit the breaks at 96 target I gave this AM. I think shorting (or adding) at the top of this pop would be a wise thing to do (with stops of course). The optimal spot was the backtest point. This could get really ugly.
Here is a broad look at the DOW and some possible S/R lines out there. Nothing set in stone at this time. Just giving you a look.

Sorry, running late this morning.

Jobs were miserable as expected.

Economic Calendar - NG at 10:30. I am not sure the market will survive all the reports tomorrow morning and that may translate into trades later today.

Earnings Calendar -

Watch for that opening gap to get filled. We're at a point where we either drop for good or we have that one last pop up to the 1040 range. This is it. If today is weak and we begin to take out the 1100 level on the SPX you might want to look at adding to your shorts (with tight stops of course). The 97 to 96 range has been a S/R area recently as well. 99 is the 38% retrace off the run from 65, and 96 is the 38% retrace of the run from 56. Every time frame looks weak but the weeklys.

Here is the updated SPX HnS chart I have been showing. this AM it backtested the neckline and reversed. SPX (so far) is holding lower highs than the 1120 top and it has set a lower low. A lower low to the HnS target of 1100 would not be enough to get me uber bearish, but it would help. Again, any strength below 1100, and I think this top is toast and we'll be looking in the upper 900's as the next target. If the backtest of the blue wedge holds here she may want to run. 200dma is at 1114.