Thursday, July 15, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

You got this - Ugly Economic Data Continues Validating Double Dip: Deterioration In Empire Manufacturing, PPI And NSA Initial Claims

And you got this- J.P. Morgan profit surges 76% as loan loss reserve shrinks
This all ties in nicely with my confused post. What is real is that the economy is going away and not coming back for a long time. What is not real are these bullshit earnings that are beating low balled estimates to pump the markets.

Economic Calendar -

Minis are basically flat on all the news. the tug-o-war between bad data and good earnings is quite the battle. It should not be. Bad data should rule cause we're all betting on FUTURE growth right? So someone please explain the near term euphoria? Never mind, I will explain it, fraud, fraud, carry trade and HFT.

GOOG after the close will most likely hold up the COMPQ, so I will speculate that will hold up the market somewhat. Tomorrow morning we have BAC, C and GE. I think the financials and tech kill it (thanks Repo 105!) and the consumers will struggle based on the consumer data we have seen (if not this quarter they will struggle for sure next - unless of course we get a round of lowered to easy to beat estimates).

I have to share this post from Planet Yelnick - Mother Market is a Big Tease it frames all of the confusion perfectly. Up or down, how high or how low and who is on what side of the fence.
I'm betting on earnings manipulation and the low volume ramping HFT algo to continue to ran the ball down the field in 5 yard chunks as bad data is continually ignored by the Fed/Government/BD ramp machine. Sargent barbrady is on the corner yelling, "All is well. Move along. Nothing to see here."

SPX daily - I want to see the dailys climb a bit more. I want MACD over 0 line and then I'll get bearish. Maybe Monday. the big question is where does the corrective end and how. I like the 12 12 count and may abandon the ABC to 1140. that cuts it off a bit shorter. For now I an sticking with my second target of 1111 and the 200ma (since 1090 was sliced like a knife thru butter - hey when I first called 1090 some thought I was nuts). Like Rich Cash pointed out yesterday, the possible formation of a H&S on the SPX is in place now (RS forming here). Barring some sort of real swing south this daily chart is not ready to turn. RSI is tired and this run is losing steam but it is not over quite yet. Lots of green circles on this chart still. Close, but not yet.

GL today! Oh, thanks to all the new followers that signed up this week.