Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Minis update - 1 and 5m cycling thru setting divergences on longer time frames as she sets a possible double top at the 200ma and resistance line. If that support line cracks 52 is a good number. On the other hand, if the 200 cracks to the upside, you'll know the PPT is in control.I will add that the 30m MACD is still bullish, so I would not be surprised to see more upside.

You know when you are in a bad situation but don't admit it, and then something comes along to shine the bright light of reality and you then figure out you are screwed? Welcome to earnings season. Let's call it a wake up call to all investors far and wide. No matter the spin (see post below) 'analytsts' put on things, somehow the truth always comes out in the wash. Ya think this quarter is bad (and it is just getting started) wait till next and then the one after that.

Earnings Calendar - AAPL today!

Economic Calendar - Weak Housing Starts At 549K Versus Exp. Of 575K, Prior Revised Down From 593K To 578K

Minis down 9. GS gave 'em a little pop. the time frames on the charts are all over the place. Dailys just rolling over (or topping) getting bearish, 60m are just coming off the bottom and the 30m is somewhere in the middle headed up. So, in that case we revert to the AUD/JPY pair to be the decision maker and find that it is consolidating in the end of a triangle signaling more weakness in the days to come. Strength above that 200ma is very unlikely which translated to little implied strength to come in the future for the markets.
Notice any similarities with this SPX chart and the one above? I do and neither look good for the markets.
Down we go after the nice consolidation in the bear flag. IBM was a real downer. revenues are a problem AGAIN for like the 12th quarter in a row. Companies are about as lean as they can get and the consumer is dead. It is going to get really ugly from here on out. We may get some reprieve this quarter, but next will be a doozy. Wait and watch for the lowered estimates to get lowered again. I like 55 for a target on SPX if it does not let go completely.