Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

No post tonight - getting out for a little RnR. The H&S fell to 1103 just short of target. Will digest later tonight. They have managed to grind the market down in a controlled fashion that has wasted some of the good sell side indicators ST. The dailys are in a worse state though. Might churn some more. Let me di into it and see what I can find. Have a good one!

UPDATE - This is a H&S I was calling all day yesterday on the Dark Side. If it plays out 1100 is a good target. I was really disappointed when the RS did not break down at 1:40. If it is not a H&S it could be a 4 or a corrective and one last pop is to come. See, more confusing signals. Just something to keep an eye on.

Minis did not like the latest DG number. Yet another disappointment on the economic front. Tomorrow is a big day on the economic calendar and the GDP is Friday morning. Everyone I see still has the range from here to 1040 and up. The consensus is that it is topping, but when and where is the big question. I'll say we're stalling close enough to my 1111 target to call it good if it sticks. I'll be really tickled if my triangle to wedge scenario plays out. I don't know of any others that had the combination. We should nail the downside if I am correct.

Economic Calendar -Durable Goods Are Latest Economic Disappointment: June -1.0% Reading Is Largest Decline Since August 2009 (And Misses Consensus Of Course) and Petrol at 10:30.  

Earnings Calendar -

SPX daily - Rarely do my thin dashed vertical lines nail a top, but they are usually very good at indicating a top is near. On this daily chart almost all the ingredients are in place. Looking for the MACD hist to start to fall. That divergence on RSI5 should be very telling.

SPX 60m - This chart does not look good at all. I like that red diagonal as resistance.

Want to know how gun shy I am right now? This SPX 30m chart, combined with the daily above and the 60m, would normally have me screaming top and fall. That black vertical line was placed on that chart as a time target a long time ago. This is all just working out too well. It is to obvious. For some reason (possibly the just turning bullish weekly charts I have been showing) I can't personally get to where the charts tell me I should be. I can't present a better case for a turn than I have in this post and I can't bite? We've been fantastically patient thru this run. Now is not the time for some sort of performance anxiety. Even with the bad DG numbers? All the bad crap we know will be reported tomorrow? Man, I really must have been psychologically damaged by that last big bull run. We all know the manipulation is rampant. I vote for you to prepare to short and have tight stops if you do. Maybe nibble and then pounce once the turn is confirmed. GL!