Monday, July 19, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

UPDATE - Looking at DAL -  Looks like DAL is a nice short candidate. Reversing off wedging into top line diagonal after nailing a 61.8% retracement of the fall at $14.81. The indicators on this weekly chart look ill and have room to fall. The pink neckline on the right is trying to crack along with the lower wedge support line and the 38% retracement here. If this gives way that is a possible $4 drop to near $7 as a H&S target (which works nicely with the %0 to 61% retracement zone). Stockcharts PnF has a target of $6 - Nice!

Charts look to be rolling over on a daily basis, but that is not guaranteed as the 15 and 30m charts that got annihilated with Fridays 31 point plunge are very oversold. Minis up a smidge, but off their highs. Interestingly the AUD/JPY pair 30m chart is inverse to the SPX now, so that correlation may be dead or does the pair still wag the dog? We'll find out soon.

Earnings Calendar - Earnings were a dud this morning and tomorrow we have a full slate including GS and JNJ before the bell and AAPL with YHOO after the close.

Economic Calendar - Quiet week really till Thursday. HMI today at 10.

With GS and AAPL tomorrow, it will take a major move to add to the weakness we saw Friday. Let's see if we can get some sideways choppy action that can cycle the indicators thru without adding much to the top line. After charting a bunch this weekend it is obvious that although oversold, the charts appear ready to turn for round two (of 15) of this fall.

SPX 30m - Here is one possibility I am looking at. A nice large topping triangle/wedge. After E we all know what happens if it does not happen here. A pop up for E would make a possible H&S as well. So, there indicators are rolling up and the futures/open will help with this. So, sideways to up today going into the GS/AAPL earnings then we regroup. GL!