Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Minis have gotten decimated pretty much since 3:00am falling from 1098 to 1089. That is not normal. To add fuel to the fire Retail Sales Down 0.5% Versus Expectations Of -0.3%, Auto Sales Plunge 2.3%. (I forgot to mention Mortgage Applications Sink To 13 Year Low) We're at a time where you have to ask if you can see the forest for the trees? The data rolling in is really pathetic (especially since we've wasted roughly $25 trillion or so on what?). Earnings on the other hand are fabricated bullshit compared to estimates provided by buy side analysts that work for the greedy bastards that derive their income from sales of the products they are pumping. Will the truth be washed out? Maybe not this quarter, but in a coming quarter for sure. the great consumer is dead and the machine will eventually lock up and die. We just have to bide our time here.

Earnings Calendar -

Economic Calendar - Petrol at 10:30

Divergences on the 30m charts are almost out of hand at this time. What has actually happened is the last divergence got blown out and now we're in what I would call a double divergence state. Now, that said I'm still not all that bearish. Two reasons, 1) strength in the daily indicators and 2) manipulation and earnings driven emotional news to drive the market as the Ponzi/fraud scam rolls on.The VIX also looks like it could get a nice green pop here with some nice indicators strength, a big reversal candle and bouncing off of support.

SPX 30m - So based on the daily charts, earnings bullshit, the suppression of the truth, the MSM pump and many other factors I'm gonna go out on a limb and call this move here a corrective within this corrective. A 'B' wave so to speak initially. Form will tell us what is going on and if I am right or not. One thing that is for sure is when this bad boy rolls over for real we'll be in deep shit. If we get a fall here the 65/60 area should be it. I could speculate highs as large as 1140 for this run but I'm not going there. The RUT makes this ABC case the best I think. So, I follow the 30m chart to the bottom and buy again. Note in the chart below the double divergence. the forst one on July 8/9 that got ignored (stomped basically) and that turned into a larger divergence (with an even smaller one) formed late yesterday. Minis have retraced all the way under the VWAP at this time.