Thursday, July 22, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Morning, I'd like for you to know that I have put all my money in companies that produce motion sickness product. This up and down action is worse than the Alaskan cruise I went on earlier in the summer. Given all the "uncertainty" out there, a 12 point ramp in the minis overnight was not what I thought I would wake up to.

Earnings Calendar - Busiest day of the qtr for earnings today.

Economic Calendar - Initial Jobless Claims Come At 464k, Up 37k Sequentially, Miss Consensus Of 445k

I guess all I have to say is don't believe the hype, but don't fight the tape. I have resided to follow nothing longer than a 30m chart, thus I'm  a happy camper. Like many readers point out, this bullshit recovery can last for a while. The busty ones on CNBS can pump you crap just as well as the ones on the street corners in skimpy dresses late at night and so can the government. It will collapse eventually, I promise.

Minis - /ES 30m - She's consolidating, what else can you say? There is a ton of top line resistance at 1081 and then the plethora of TL's you can see. About a week ago I proposed a wedge and that appears to be working out so far. One thing about the wedge is that it allows for an overthrow, so it can crack those upper TLs and possibly run up to that 1111 area. What is making this decision so tough is that the daily indicators are right in the middle of the road. Are they climbing or rolling over? They appear to be rolling over.
SPX daily - Pretty simple. All the blue circles indicate caution where a possible turn is taking place, but that is not guaranteed. It is the daily MACD I have wanted to get over 50 for some time now before a meaningful turn happens (IMO of course but not necessary). You see the clear resistance of the 50ma at 86 and the upper BB and 200ma at my second target at 1111. The blue resistance line is quite apparent. I have had that gray one up there for a reason (it is the cleanest off the top).

So, lets see what this opening ramp on bad jobs data does to the market. I guess we can truck along losing 450k job and that is acceptable data to prove we are recovering. Who cares when unemployment benefits are extended to infinity and revenue beats are all over the place. I guess jobs are no longer a market mover. Consumer Sentiment will be avoided next. 

Watch price at resistance. If it cracks and you are short I'd move to the sidelines. On the other hand it could hold and the wedge may play out. Some EWTers would count this as a 1 of a 3 of C which means if they are right you get a really good pop later today. On the other hand some are counting it as 2 of 1 of 3 of 3 which is totally opposite. So watch that resistance and remain patient. This is not the time to be making big bets (without stops especially), but it will be soon though. I'll be playing the 30m charts waiting for clear direction as this wedge plays out with my Dramamine close at hand.