Friday, July 16, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Minis down 1.5 after GOOG, BAC, C and GE. What a joke. I guess a well timed GS, FinReg, BP spill fix trifecta coming in yesterday before the close gave the home team a winning ticket they are cashing in this morning (the morning of Opex of course). The trend of exceeding (revised) analyst expectations on falling revenues can not continue forever. Multiple quarters of misses on falling revenues will eventually catch up with anyone. The time is coming and the man behind the curtain is losing control of the machine as his tricks are getting old and tired. Next quarters earnings and then the next will be dismal. Be prepared for that.

Earnings Calendar -

Economic Calendar - Consumer Sentiment at 9:55

No doubt about it this market is teetering on collapse. Everyone can feel it. The economic indicators confirm where it should be. No one is gonna stick around for this collapse after experiencing the last one and fund flows confirm that. Sadly, somehow the market continues to levitate like David Blaine has it under a spell.

I don't get it, but it is the only game in town if you like equities, so we still play. I have reduced almost all market exposure to the 30m charts. The cycle from top to bottom is about as long a time frame as is reliable these days.

At this time I'm really leaning towards total collapse from here. I originally thought this corrective would move up to the 1090 range as a first target and to the 200ma at 1111 as a second target and then crap out. Then I went to a revised theory of a corrective down and one last triumphant ramp to possibly the 1140 range (that is in the process of being scuttled cause my thoughts on earnings and manipulation are not panning out quite right) Most are virtually sure once it turns again it will be the last and an inspiring fall will come. Swift, like a thief in the night,  another 20% of your assets will be swept away to the great bank in the sky.

So, does it happen here and now? It seems they gave is a great shot yesterday and used all their ammo in one shot. What did they get for that - a run to 1100 and some gap closure (TYVM). The daily chart is rolling over and the 30m divergence set by that late spike yesterday screams massive weakness of the double top. Get your seat backs in their upright position and please fasten your seat belts, turbulence is expected, and if we hit an air pocket look out.

SPX daily - I wanted to get MACD over 0, but may not get the wish. Watch that histogram for the first signs a turn here is coming. RSI5 is overbought and rolling over. S Sto has reached a topping point. The 50ma is acting as resistance. 1070 would be a first target and there is support at 40. I am afraid this fall may not be orderly. Watch out for sentiment numbers at 9:55. They don't have much left in the tank to prop this market up. OPEX close may be a good timing mechanism as well.

GL and have a great weekend.