Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

UPDATE - Yellow line on RUT (which was leading the fall and is now playing catch up in the recovery) and the gap fill are not far off. Sadly that is an enormously bullish candle. That can to be ignored.

UPDATE - About to puke up a lung? Again another ugly chart (this is one of my "work charts" - I have charts everywhere) Bloe resistance diagonal above price just like on the minis. Retracements and resistance in the 1105 area coming. 220ma daily coming. THE BAD NEWS IS if this cracks with conviction it may have to be considered a breakout. the dailys still have plenty of room to run. I am looking to short, but have not pulled the trigger. I am horrified at the potential for more upside. News driven, emotional trading, HFT bots and the manipulators working their pump and dump scheme to perfection while FINRA and the SEC do nothing.

UPDATE - Minis approaching resistance line. Chart is ugly as hell I know, but just look at the green line. Price came within a point and reversed. This could bode well for the bears. 30m is at upper VWAP band, out of the upper BB and a retrace to the VWAP near 1076 should be in order.The fib is not there, but the 38% retrace of the whole move from the 1216 top was 1084. The 62% retrace from the 1130 top was 1081. This double fib confluence and the TL were the reason for my initial target (given on the SPX of 1090). A break of this would be very bullish IMO. Yes this is a 4hr chart and that is a divergence in the indicators. the run may be done for now. We'll have to see. If it is not, then any buying from here will be quickly eradicated upon the next turn.

AA scams a beat and INTC among others on deck today. Minis were down when I went to bed at midnight last night. Glad to see the 'ol morning ramps are back. they are up 10 at this time. Not sure why, but I'm guessing it has something to do with bots, algos and super low volume overnight.

Earnings Calendar - Pay attention to it. INTC and JPM in the morning.

Economic Calendar - Know it!Thursday is gonna be really screwy with all the earnings and econ reports.

My initial target of 1090 is just a few points away. It is up to the daily chart now. Screw the others. Sure, I will still rely on the 30m for trading direction ST, but we're at the mercy of the daily chart now. RSI5 is getting overbought, so that says the bulk of the run should be over, but the run is not necessarily ending. RSI14 is stalled at the 50 line. That is a common point for reversals. Bottom line is there is room to climb. the market was horrendously oversold NT. The manipulators are back at the wheel, but don;t fret bears, your dat is coming soon. If my 1090 target is taken out then we have to look up to my second posted target of 1111 a test of the 200ma.
Looking at INTC

10 year chart -  Let's look at INTC - First let's look at a chart going back to 2001. The only thing I want you to notice is the range and the upper TL that is providing some solid resistance. A 10 year trend is something to note. Can you say range bound and lack of performance?
Here is a shorter 60m chart. Looks like a breakout to me. If it goes nuts looks like 22.11 is the number with the gap, the 62% retracement and that red TL. I think it is virtually guaranteed it will not go over 23.80 cause that is the 10yr resistance line. the 30m chart has been overbought for a week now.