Sunday, July 19, 2009

My Call - P3 The Update

Thursday June 18th I did my State Of The Charts Post where I gave it my best shot at predicting what I thought P2 would look like and how it might play out with three scenarios. So far I look pretty fucking smart, but I'm not counting my chickens just yet. I got my doube top (or at least close) to set some divergences. Now can I get the fall to 847 for what I think is the B in this ABC corrective of the great fall from the top in '07. This move up must have a deeper retrace (at least 38%) IMO before moving higher.

Below is an updated chart where I appear to be on track as far as form (and pretty close on time - pure luck). I have not changed anything in the chart except for narrowing a few lines in the period that has occurred, deleting a few annotations (sc is lacking there in what it allows) in the indicators and adding two vertical target lines for my Option 1 scenario. The previous chart from the last post is there for prosperity as is this one. Look, I'm not Csaey or Nostradamus. I called the last month or so pretty darn good in the face of all the permabears telling me I was fing nuts, so I get to keep going.

The permabears won't like the near term call for the end of this year, but that is how I still see it. Manipulation and earnings surprises galore will lead us to higher highs before lower lows IMHO. Now is the time for the fall to 847. Sometime soon I think we plummet but this will not be "the" fall.

One main source for power for the bulls will be "earnings comparisons". Remember the fall and the earnings comparisons over the first year were sensational. Now the comprables are "post crash". They are going to be comparing shit vs. shit from now on with the analysts from GS and the other banks giving it their best shot at making their buy calls and other fantasies come true. Ya think CNBS will have a field day forgetting about any '07 numbers and touting the BS vs. BS numbers.

The three options still exist. We turn soon, but IMO this is not the fall. If I am wrong, option two is still out there. P3 is coming when is the only question. The only way we'll know is the form of the fall. Don't get me wrong, we're gonna crash, just not yet.

Look, it is a balsy upopular call with the crowd I run with. I hope they are right and we get this bullshit over with sooner than later. It is just how I see it playing out.

I'm still struggling with the new computer, java and stockcharts. Obviously I am screwing around with the layout. Thanks for the emails and feedback. Just trying to make things better.

Thanks for the feedback and visting. GL trading.


  1. Shanky - Why do you see a need for us to test 845? Goldman Sachs has manipulated this market good... If you have a ABC count from 667, you will notice that 869 on SPX is exactly 30% retracement from June's high. This is the minimum retracement for a B wave and something you would expect from a strong countertrend rally. Mr. Goldman Sachs has manipulated so well that if you count this as P1 of a new bull rally (I know, sounds crazy, but that's the story they are trying to sell), you will see that SPX has RESPECTED every fibonnaci retracement from end of Wave 2 of "P1" (779) of this attempt P1 bull market. I called 888 as support when we first sold off when everyone was calling 880-870. I also called 867 as next support for fake breakout of neckline. We hit 869 and rallied hard since. These numbers are not random and no one I follow called those out. Everyone was screaming 875, 845, 820, 810 and 800. This market is HIGHLY manipulated. A whip down to 845 (~10pt move!) would scare the living shit out of anyone who is warming to the DK's idea that recession is over and this is early stages of a new bull market or reflation trade. Plus, on average, earnings have been well recieved so far, so why sell of hard now? I see a pullback after Tuesday as AAPL earnings should provide catalyst for sell off given 1) less than stellar guidance from RIMM (expect similar for AAPL) and 2) PALM taking market shares. I understand the technicals behind people calling 845, but I feel given current social mood of the market, well received earnings thus far, reflation mindset, etc, it makes the scenario for 845 less likeley. I think a pullback to the neckline around 900 should do it, no?

  2. A few more points, GS has supported this market hard because 1) truth is on the side of the bears and 2) if we were to pull back too hard and/or too fast, things make get out of control and not even all mighty Gov't Sach can prop us back up. I think a sell off to 845 would raise doubts of recovery gov't is trying to sell and scare off people who are just a trigger away from going long.

  3. Yeah yeah yeah ... up, down, sideways. One will be right.

    On a more important note, did your dog shit out those laptop keys yet, and if so, in what order? There could be a hidden market message there. Do share.

  4. Toasty - I'll respond later at your site.

    S135 - LOL - "Shanky is right" was the magical message my dog shit out BTW.


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