Thursday, July 30, 2009

A Few More Charts To Digest - We're Getting Closer

Weekly indicators that I wanted to set divergences for the next fall have done worse and are now beginning to embed (with the dailys). Needless to say I expected this run up, but I wanted it after a deeper pullback that I did not get. This exuberance can not last forever (well, it can last as long as the HFT's and the BHO's want it to actually - they have all the money in the world to play with and whether you or I participate is a non factor these days IMO)

So the next hurdle IMO will be the trendlines on the monthly indicators. I'm really watching the RSI and Slow Sto trendlines and the MACD histogram. The severely declining buy volume is a great indicator that this rally is on its last legs.

SPXA50 is above 400 again (what a freaking joke that is). The PE ratios are not realistic. You should realize that the monthly Sto indicators are going to have to embed here and whipsaw after bull crosses. MACD will need a whipsaw as well. TRIX has a way to go to cross, but it lags the market IMO. The market has made it thru EOM painting.

I'm still guessing we top in October in a range from 1050 to 1121 at either a 38% or 50% retracement from the big fall where they intersect with the top market line. Two green target lines shown. I'm in the ABC corrective camp and this is possibly the beginning of 3.C.2 with 868 having possibly been the bottom of B (again I wanted a deeper move for B, but might not get it). That was a pretty impulsive move this AM disregarding employment and treasury sales (who give a shit?).

Link to chart in Stockcharts for better viewing.

I would also like for you to look at a yearly chart. I have shown it before and got poo pooed for it. Not so funny now is it? It is bullish as hell. The indicators there have bottomed and will need to turn and embed for significant downside move - So you are fighting monthly rising and yearly at the bottom rising and daily and weekly at the top. This kind of supports my theory for the need for an "external influence" to get the market to go where us permabears want it to.


  1. Qs hit the 50% fib and the downtrend line from the top.

    It's not all about the SPX man!

  2. The dow has toasted the trendline. Yes there is more than one index. RUT and COMP aren't in the ballpark yet. SPX appears to be IMO the most manipulated and connected to the HFT and where the BHO's reside, thus I'll be focused on that index with an eye on the others as well. The Q's have been accused of leading, so I'll keep an eye on them. Thanks bud. GL trading.

  3. Why will the market go down by 50% or more?

    BHOSUCKS! Learn it and teach it to your children.

    Any why are automakers getting another bailout? Oh, Government Motors needs support.

    A perfectly good country is being made into a banana republic. We should be having nets over our beds and widespread malaria by the time this Marxist is done with us.


Keep it civil and respectful to others.