I hate being wrong. Let's get that out of the way. A few days ago I made a weak case for a bounce and got about 7 points before further collapse. Admittedly very wrong. Why? I have become so accustomed to the PPT, GS and the marry gang propping up the markets every time the 60m bottomed out I lost all focus.
Well, here is a little more versed shot at why we have a minor correction here before further weakness.
Notes are in the chart. Here goes - The ABC move off of 956 to here is complete. A=C. The yellow fib in the chart is the measurement. The C leg of the C leg measures .618 of the A leg of the C leg, so it can be technically complete. 60m indicators are all turning north from a short embedded stint. The red and black trendlines I believe are solid and were meant to hold this fall. There is another way of looking at the red falling wedge that may be breaking out. It could also play as an A-E count with a truncated E. That pattern would be completed as well or will be with another touch of the lower trendline. The steepness of the fall and some recent candle action are assisting the call. The 60m VIX looks to be turning as well.
Again, I will note that the dailys and weeklys are not ready for any major turn, so this call may be premature, but I am only looking to the fib retracements at the 900 to 902 level for the bounce. If I miss this call, then I got too good at reading manipulated markets and need to brush up on some real TA. Maybe GS has lost their touch since the cat got out of the bag with their proprietary market manipulation software. If that is the case, I'll surely be wrong.
On another note, I have gotten some comments and emails on the upcoming earnings season. My thoughts are mixed. First, the analysts are part of the game. They are in it to sell you something. If you are not buying then they don't make as much money. Second, the banks earnings will miss at some point, just not sure when. The manipulated bullshit that happened at the end of last year where they decided to just exclude a month of earnings will come back to bite them in the butt eventually. When is the question. Thus I have mixed views on how earnings will be. Rightfully so they should suck. How any retailer is still above water is beyond comprehension.
Note: Still on vacation in Colorado, so posts are few. Saw a big damn brown bear last night. Walked out of the restaurant after dinner and there down the side street about 50 yards away was this huge ass bear looking for some food. The marshall chased him around a few houses and he got away. I was hoping that would be some sort of sign.
GL trading and thanks for the views and comments.