I was looking for patterns and think I may have found something. If the turn is real and SPX topped at 930 then there should be some form of pattern headed south right? I threw a channel on it and some 25, 50 and 75% lines and lookie here. Each interior line managed 3 to four significant touches. This is IMO of course, but might prove to help us identify some key points. The brown box is the 50 to 61.8% retracement zone.
Try one the other direction and you'll likely find some to line up too!
ReplyDeleteDid you read my 2001 post on ST Social?
Now THAT's Eureka man.
S135 - I get your point, but with roughly 4 perfect touches per line I think this has merit. We'll see.
ReplyDeleteHere is the link to S135's post.
ReplyDeletehttp://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/monthly-macd-suggests-we-are
Nice find, Shanky. Do you think 920 is possible too? (BTW, I like your new blog.)
ReplyDeleteAs for your ongoing consideration of P3 (and P5?) many analysts say CRE, REITS, and banks are going to get hurt worst in 2010-2013 (not just 2009). This lends support to the idea that the economy and market WON'T be "out of the woods" by late 2009/early 2010, but may suffer serious setbacks over the next FOUR YEARS! (P3 & P5).
Here's a snippet from CNBC today re: CRE, REITS, & banks:
"In the next three years, 2010 — that's when it really starts — to 2013, we've got about $300 billion in (commercial mortgage-backed securities), of which $70 to $100 billion is not refinanceable. But to put it in real perspective, on top of this is $1 trillion in bank loans written in the same timeframe, with the same dubious underwriting, coming due in that period." This wave of debt will be a "real blow to the belly of the banking sector."