Thursday, May 14, 2009

SPX New Channel Down?

I was looking for patterns and think I may have found something. If the turn is real and SPX topped at 930 then there should be some form of pattern headed south right? I threw a channel on it and some 25, 50 and 75% lines and lookie here. Each interior line managed 3 to four significant touches. This is IMO of course, but might prove to help us identify some key points. The brown box is the 50 to 61.8% retracement zone.


  1. Try one the other direction and you'll likely find some to line up too!

    Did you read my 2001 post on ST Social?

    Now THAT's Eureka man.

  2. S135 - I get your point, but with roughly 4 perfect touches per line I think this has merit. We'll see.

  3. Here is the link to S135's post.

  4. Nice find, Shanky. Do you think 920 is possible too? (BTW, I like your new blog.)

    As for your ongoing consideration of P3 (and P5?) many analysts say CRE, REITS, and banks are going to get hurt worst in 2010-2013 (not just 2009). This lends support to the idea that the economy and market WON'T be "out of the woods" by late 2009/early 2010, but may suffer serious setbacks over the next FOUR YEARS! (P3 & P5).

    Here's a snippet from CNBC today re: CRE, REITS, & banks:

    "In the next three years, 2010 — that's when it really starts — to 2013, we've got about $300 billion in (commercial mortgage-backed securities), of which $70 to $100 billion is not refinanceable. But to put it in real perspective, on top of this is $1 trillion in bank loans written in the same timeframe, with the same dubious underwriting, coming due in that period." This wave of debt will be a "real blow to the belly of the banking sector."


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