Thursday, May 21, 2009

I'm Declaring The Top is In (Ballsy Isn't It)

Some idiot has to step out there and do it. So let it be me. Chart can be viewed here. While you are there check out the weekly and daily indicator charts. I know I am taking a risk in this manipulated screwed up market, but the weekly and dailys are there.

The market action over the past couple of weeks has been different to say the least. I believe the banks are as done with their deleveraging pump and dump as they can be (the ones left out at this point are toast IMO). Timmay, Ben and "O"binhood may get me in the behind with a few last surprises, but I don't care anymore. I've begun moving things to cash and setting protective measures. I am not buying short just yet. This is not a wholesale move, but the beginnings of one.

The EWTers have several opinions and I keep seeing P3 showing up as one. Here is my opinion (yes I have one believe it or not) on that - This fall will either be a large retracement to the 800 - 767 area or the big one (Lizbeth! I'm comin.) We'll have to see how it is forming around 800. IMO the banks either have one more quarter of manipulated earnings in them or they are toast. We'll have a good grip on it when we get there.

When we get near the bottom pay close attention to the EWT count. If it looks like a 3 could show up be prepared cause it's gonna hurt. The best places to watch for all of this action are at Kenny's and Dan's sites.

For those looking for the 200dma touch, bless you. You may get that touch, but it will be at a lower high as it continues its decent. This may drag out the fall another few weeks and the touch will occur as the waves play out, but alas at a lower high. IMO it will take a whipsaw in the dailys to make this happen and the weakness in the 60m moves of late might not have the strength to pull that off. I have been on the 936 - 955 bandwagon, but I just fell off. This top call may be premature (not that kind of premature), but it is what I see and feel.

This is my opinion and you need to do what you do best. Don't take my word for anything. This thing could shoot to 1050 next month (and frankly it would not surprise me if it did). IMO this is "their" last shot a saving America as we know it. They've thrown everything at it including the kitchen sink. Has it worked? Well it has slowed down the deterioration of this great nation, but IMO it has not really fixed any problems (in fact they may have dug the hole deeper if possible). If you don't like what you are reading here, you can go listen to the green shoot discussions on CNBS, but don't come a whinin back here. I'm covering my ass.


  1. I don't like EWT because it so confusing during those zigzags. If it will not will drop..LOL

    Anyway ALL sentiment indicators are showing very bearish signals:
    - short term - SPX:CPC
    - mid - Zweig, McClellan

    I agree with you. Top was at 935 and market will not reach it again for a couple of months

  2. Hi Shanky,

    Thanks for your charts and comments. (I voted for you.)

    Given your top-call and your views at this time, at what level are you planning to short?

    And at what level are you planning to go long?


  3. Thanks SRS - At this time I do not see any "value" or solid risk/reward for entertaining a long position here. As for getting long in the future, we'll have to see. As mentioned the 800 to 767 area are solid retracements at this time, but that can change if for some strange reason my top call is incorrect LOL. As for shorting...I'll have to see how this week and next play out, but I'll most likely be short by the end of the month. K or DE will nail that call I believe. No specific number yet by me. Thanks for the vote, comment and visit.

    AJVS - you can tell I'm looking at CPC from an earlier post. Thanks for the comment.

  4. I'm glad someone is calling a top. :-)

    I'm a big believer that the market likes to be symetrical. I see a drop back to 800 forming an inverse H&S. (May have a quick drop to 740 like in November with another tail). Then, we will see the rise back to this 940ish level, maybe 1000 like every else is calling... and then the drop of drops.

    BTW, I've had alot of tech issues with the site the last 2 nights. I'm not sure if it is something on the site or Google.


  5. I think the top is in also.

    Too many beleieve we just have a pullback,
    then run back up.


  6. Thanks, Shanky.

    Band58, Kenny also said that he had tech issues yesterday on both Kenny's and Shanky's blogs.

    Band58 and Shanky, Please see my comment on Kenny's blog at the end of Market Update: May 20th, since we were all discussing the government's actions affecting the market, the economy, and the future of our country. (For some reason, I can't copy my comment off Kenny's blog and paste it here.)

  7. Hi Shanky,

    I have determined that I can copy my comment off Kenny's blog and paste it to my email account -- but I cannot paste it to your or Daneric's comment boxes (both of which are run by Google Blogger). It seems to be some kind of misguided "security" protection -- although I can't think of how pasting a copied comment would pose a security threat.

    While I'm discussing minor annoyances with these blog systems, why do your and Beamer Dog's blogs require commentators to type in a "wiggly word" each time, when Kenny's and Daneric's blogs do not require this extra step? If you can eliminate this hurdle, I for one would appreciate it. Thanks.

  8. Agree with you, the top is most likely in, though it will be interesting to see with low volume what happens next week, would not shock me to see a fairly big move up to try and suck in the lemmings.

    Anyone catch Seymour on Friday say not to worry about a credit downgrade in the US? He says the credit spreads are so wonderful and thats all that matters. The credit spreads are wonderful because the govt and fdic are essentially acting as insurance on everything right now. Seymour showed he is a moron and still say in all honesty I think he has a coke problem.

    Also, Obama admits to CSPAN the country is broke but without breaking stride he says we need to spend more money we don't have on healthcare.

    When is someone going to say Social Security, Medicare and most other government programs need to be shutdown?

  9. Well if Social Security is shutdown, I for one want all of that money that has been pulled from my paycheck for 22 yrs immediately refunded to me posthaste. Oh...and everyone thinks Madoff had the biggest PONZI Scheme ever? Not by a long shot... -Michael

  10. I have been paying in 21 years too and will gladly give up what I have given to rid myself, my children and grandchildren from the burden of big government.


Keep it civil and respectful to others.