"I am one of those who do not believe the national debt is a national blessing...it is calculated to raise around the administration a moneyed aristocracy dangerous to the liberties of the country."
—Andrew Jackson, letter, April 26, 1824
Thursday, May 28, 2009
SPX Channel Update
I added a parallel trend line to cover the two tops that blew out the top. It fit almost perfectly.
Shanky, I am amazed we had the pop today due to people being "relieved" that treasury yields did not go higher. Mortgage rates are still much higher than last week due to Thursdays debacle and this has brought to a virtual standstill refi's and most likely stopped a lot of new home purchases. People will need to ante up more money or are not qualified for the new rates. So why the market didn't crash Thursday means to me you have a bunch of amateurs playing who are about to get really hurt when the market crashes harder than what happened in March. The housing "recovery" is dead until those rates drop back down dramatically and damn quick. Housing "green shoots" just got shot with RoundUp and now the fed just lost its biggest tool in ending this depression.... -Michael
Michael, you nailed it. Most new mtgs are just refis and some dirt cheep forclosure sales. Backlog in 750k homes is at 40 months and growing. The backlog on refis is at like 45 days and the rate lock mechanism is not gonna allow those seeking the 4.5 rates to actually get them which will lead to collapse soon. This has me actually wondering if this was some sort of scam to move the markets. I'll throw out a rare bone as prices are stabilizing somewhat. Yield curve is as steep as it has ever been and FED can't buy it forever to control inflation. I posted not to long ago about inflation getting here sooner than most expected and maybe that will be so. We're screwed IMO and the Jr. investors are buying away signaling a bubblish topping scenario while the pros leave out the back door.
Shanky, I am amazed we had the pop today due to people being "relieved" that treasury yields did not go higher. Mortgage rates are still much higher than last week due to Thursdays debacle and this has brought to a virtual standstill refi's and most likely stopped a lot of new home purchases. People will need to ante up more money or are not qualified for the new rates. So why the market didn't crash Thursday means to me you have a bunch of amateurs playing who are about to get really hurt when the market crashes harder than what happened in March. The housing "recovery" is dead until those rates drop back down dramatically and damn quick. Housing "green shoots" just got shot with RoundUp and now the fed just lost its biggest tool in ending this depression.... -Michael
ReplyDeleteMichael, you nailed it. Most new mtgs are just refis and some dirt cheep forclosure sales. Backlog in 750k homes is at 40 months and growing. The backlog on refis is at like 45 days and the rate lock mechanism is not gonna allow those seeking the 4.5 rates to actually get them which will lead to collapse soon. This has me actually wondering if this was some sort of scam to move the markets. I'll throw out a rare bone as prices are stabilizing somewhat. Yield curve is as steep as it has ever been and FED can't buy it forever to control inflation. I posted not to long ago about inflation getting here sooner than most expected and maybe that will be so. We're screwed IMO and the Jr. investors are buying away signaling a bubblish topping scenario while the pros leave out the back door.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the note,
Shanky