Monday, May 4, 2009

My Thoughts (From a post at Kenny's)

C and get it over with, but I just can't see it playing out that way. Earnings have been mostly positive (earnings trough as I have noted previously) and they will continue to be. Then we have the dead period and more positive (I'm suspecting) earnings next quarter. I'm not seeing anything to stop this train for a while (back to my external source argument for market decline - China - Oil - who knows what). Everything sucks and it's getting worse IMO, but the sheeple see 600k/mo unemployment numbers and zero credit as some sort of good thing that we have bottomed (ROFLMAO). Manipulation is working and will remain that way until "they" want their shorts to come home. "They" can't let this market fall. How else can you explain the XLF being up in the face of massive dilution. Who the hell in their right mind is going to buy a bank stock here.

Anyway, buy the rumor and sell the news is how I am seeing this Stress Test. Pullback to the 875 - 871 trendline or to 875 would be about the wedge target or at least the gap fill from this morning then off to 1021 (My target at this time). I'll also mention that I have a very bullish set of clients that are pissed at me for taking profits at the 836 level and they want more (and shorting some lightly there and they are not out - very small positions - but they are in full agreement and disbelief in the markets's ability to levitate). Calls are picking up to buy. I am capitulating and giving in and even the great K Meister has mentioned the L word in recent days. Who the heck knows. It's a 2 wave.

Gl people. Stick with the trends and the 60m indicators is my only suggestion at this point. Watch for the weeklys to begin to top out (STO is there already). Let's just hope we don't have to wait on the monthly indicators. Geesh, that would suck.

1 comment:

  1. i thought this was jpmpoys blog for like a minutes...had to recheck title 3-4 times

    (ezact same layout)

    like the old one better, fwiw lol

    1021, u think we get the "pullback then push"

    if the stress tests cant pop it here...what do u think would be the motor for the 1021 push?

    next qtr earnings?

    the quite period in between earnings?


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